Prime Minister Narendra Modi lands in Washington on Wednesday, 12 February, after co-chairing the AI Action Summit in Paris. He is visiting the US to meet the newly elected but belligerent and buoyant President Donald Trump.
Amid the din of publicity, many among PM Modi’s legion of well-wishers (and even detractors) fear that the trip may hurt his image abroad, and even damage national interest.
His short visit is being perceived as a litmus test to judge how prepared the Indian leader is to blunt Trump’s troubling demands, starting with the humiliating deportation of illegal Indian immigrants.
Indeed, the list of diplomatic challenges staring India under Trump 2.0 is long and winding — starting with tariff impositions on Indian goods, pumping Modi to take on China, and questions over how US courts will deal with charges against Indian businessman Gautam Adani, to name a few.
The first indication of the relationship between the two democracies turning sour came soon after President Trump's re-election when Modi was not personally invited to the inauguration. Soon after, the image of 104 'illegal' immigrants being sent back by the US added to the chagrin of Indians.
While deportation is not in itself an unusual practice, the decision to deport Indian immigrants in a US military aircraft, allegedly in handcuffs and shackles while doing so, is a bit overt. It hurt the expectations of the country’s parliamentarians and its people.
Immigrants, Not Criminals: A Colombian Example
The sight of the deportees being treated as hardened criminals, inhumanly corralled and ferried back to India, was rather shocking, especially when PM Modi's “friend” had returned to power in Washington. Incidentally, a large section of the Indian diaspora in the US supported the return of Trump. Howdy, now?
The spectacle of the deportation was an embarrassment that neither the PM nor the country could have anticipated. The incident evoked a strong sentiment from Indians back home who demanded a firm and aggressive response from India to the US. Many conveyed through their social media posts that the deportees were not criminals and should thus be treated with some dignity.
The anger is perhaps because the world has seen how other countries negotiate with American bullying in such matters. After all, the Brazilians, Colombians, and other Latin Americans demanded respect for their deportees — and they got it.
Gustavo Petro, the Left-leaning Colombian President, made it amply clear that his deportees were not criminals and should not be shackled and handcuffed. He denied permission to the US military aircraft bringing back the deportees to land in Colombia, and instead, sent his own air force to pick them up. The Brazilian government also demanded that their deportees be freed from restraints before they land on the nation’s soil.
A Missed Opportunity for Jaishankar?
On the contrary, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar seemed restrained and measured as he rose to issue a statement addressing the issue to mollify an angry Parliament. He made it amply clear that this was not the first time that the deportees were being sent back to India.
The Indian foreign minister also justified putting them in restraints as part of the 'standard operating procedure'.
Even in the face of a hostile Parliament, Jaishankar clearly did not want to say anything that could antagonise the US government, perhaps even jeopardise PM Modi’s impending US visit and meeting with Trump.
One might even wonder why the PM is going to the US at all when the mood in the country after the deportation of immigrants is hostile. A Congress parliamentarian, Manish Tewari, like many others, suggested that PM Modi cancel his trip to Washington.
There is a view that after winning the second term, President Trump is in an aggressive mood, and he could make unreasonable demands on the Indian PM.
War of Narratives
In diplomacy circles, there are competing narratives over the visit. A foreign diplomat, while sharing his views on the matter with this writer, expressed apprehensions over the timing of the visit and whether both sides had made adequate preparations for the trip. While Indian diplomats are calling it a significant trip within three weeks of Trump’s nomination, seasoned White House watchers are not sure.
There is hushed talk about upcoming cases against Indian officials on their alleged attempts to assassinate a Sikh militant leader, and hints dropped about pressure exerted by 'The Five Eyes' countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US) against India to act against alleged Indian adventurism.
There is also vehement spin-doctoring of news by Indian media that are claiming the PM’s visit will cement the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), which serves as a counterpoint to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). If it does happen, the Adani Group, which is currently in the arc of a probe by the US Department of Justice (DoJ), would play a major role.
The US-based investment analyst Hindenburg Research had conclusively shown how Indian port-to-airport company had engaged in improper stock manipulation and use of tax havens to enrich itself. The US DoJ has filed a case against the Adani Group, which is likely to come up later in the month of March.
It is yet to be seen whether the case will be taken up with similar vigour as it would have been under the earlier Biden administration, or if the business-friendly President Trump would choose to ignore it.
The question is, would Adani, who has accompanied the PM on many of his visits abroad, be willing to travel to Washington as part of the entourage this time? The other big question is, will Trump leverage the manifest weaknesses of the PM to his advantage?
Jaishankar should know about the implications of the visit. He was in the US for Trump’s inauguration on 20 January, and he discussed the issue of deportation of Indian immigrants with the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The foreign minister also said forcefully in Parliament that the names of those who returned to India were cleared and verified by the Indian government.
More than 18,500 Indian 'illegal' immigrants are ready to be sent back. Another estimate suggests there are 750,000 Indians living illegally in the US who will eventually have to return to India. It remains to be seen how the Indian government and janta will digest it if such deportation tactics by the US continue.
Walled Out or Walled In?
Trump has promised to build a wall at the US border with Mexico, from where the maximum number of immigrants from around the world enter the US. Indians also use the arduous and risky route, called the “dunki route”.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has been smartly speaking in two different voices: one for her fawning constituents who think she’s brave enough to look Trump in the eye, and another for her counterpart in the US, where she is seen as an idol of reasonableness.
Trump, however, betrayed her on the sly by saying that she had agreed to "everything", including installing 10,000 Mexican troops on the border to prevent migrants from crossing over to the US. Sheinbaum had said she opposes the wall that Trump is trying to build and claimed that the same wall can be used to isolate American goods from rest of the world.
By a US immigration department estimate, there are 11 million 'illegal' immigrants in the US from nearly all countries of the world who believe that they are in a country that was meant for them. However, the new POTUS seems to have resolved to send them back in his endeavour to 'Make America Great Again'.
In press conferences, Trump often expresses his surprised disdain for any of the Heads of States even hinting at opposition to taking back their immigrants. He categorically claims that all governments are keen to strike a deal with him.
One is compelled to wonder will the US become great again only after deporting non-white immigrants. How will a rapidly depopulated country like the US deal with a situation when 11 million immigrants return to their countries? Who will harvest their crops and do other trivial jobs?
Also, will the countries set to receive these immigrants be able to absorb the shock? Will they be able to provide them the standard of life they were hoping to achieve in the US? These are perhaps some questions India should mull before the meeting with its "friend" Donald Trump.
(Sanjay Kapoor is a veteran journalist and founder of Hardnews Magazine. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India and its neighbours, and West Asia. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)