On 24 January, speaking to The Times of India, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) Director General Rajeev Rai Bhatnagar said:
In the past year, we have hit the Naxals in their den. Our coordination with state police, intelligence agencies and armed forces has been exceptional. The Naxals have not been able to move arms, funds and their senior leaders from one place to another.
Less than 24 hours later, the Maoists hit back. Four police personnel were killed by Maoists, who ambushed the 400-strong security team in a dense forest area in Narayanpur district of Chhattisgarh.
It was a reminder that the successes by the security forces so far do not suggest that Left-wing extremism is on its last legs. In fact, Narayanpur was proof that in parts of the ‘red corridor’, that the Maoists control, they are still the ‘outlawed kings of the jungle’.
A Shrinking Red Corridor
India's anti-Naxal security apparatus believes the footprint of Maoist influence has shrunk considerably, now largely restricted to four states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. It points out that from 75 districts in the country that reported naxal attacks in 2015, last year (2017) saw violence only in 58 districts.
The CRPF data is in sync with the situation on the ground, as territories, like large tracts of Telangana or the Nallamalla forests in Andhra, which were earlier controlled by Naxals, are no longer part of the ‘red corridor’. The Andhra presence is now restricted to Visakhapatnam (rural) and parts of the East Godavari district.
In 2004, when the then YS Rajasekhara Reddy government invited the Maoists for peace talks, it gave the intelligence gathering units an opportunity to put a face to a name. With the Maoist belief that power flowed from the barrel of the gun, it was a given that the talks would fail sooner than later.
But by the time they did, it had given the Andhra police enough time to infiltrate the Maoist ranks and get specific intelligence tip-offs on the movements of armed squads.
It was only a matter of time before the ‘big guns’ of the outfit were eliminated and the cadres forced to flee from Andhra into Odisha and Chhattisgarh.
Underdevelopment Allows Naxalism to Thrive
For a decade now, Odisha has dealt with the Maoist menace, with its leadership imported from Andhra and foot soldiers recruited from the tribal hamlets of the state. But now, things are looking up with as many as six districts in Odisha reporting no Maoist activity. Incidents of Maoist violence too, have gone down – from 68 in 2016 to 52 in 2017.
With just 400-odd Maoist cadres active in Odisha now, it is only a matter of time. Along with proactive action on the ground, there is also better inter-state coordination.’RP Koche, IG (Operations), Odisha Police to The Quint
But the areas bordering Chhattisgarh and Andhra continue to be ‘red zones’. The geographical factor – of dense forest area, lack of connectivity and roads – make this a safe haven for the Maoists. Stepping into Chhattisgarh’s Bastar district is like going back in time.
Underdeveloped areas allow Maoist-activity to thrive.
Maoist ‘sympathisers’ claim that 70 percent of south Chhattisgarh is under the control of these outlaws, which the state government can penetrate only if they are heavily armed.
‘Connectivity’ – A Means to Fight Naxalism
In fact, the moment you cross into Chhattisgarh from Andhra, either side of National Highway 30 is out of bounds beyond five kilometres. Sukma district’s Collector Niraj Bhansod told The Quint that at least 15 gram panchayats around Konta, the first small town in south Chhattisgarh, are absolutely no-go areas.
Naxals have formed regional political councils in these villages, where their representatives are armed with country-made weapons. The police admit there are as many as 5,000 armed cadres, and another 20,000 sympathisers in the seven districts of south Chhattisgarh.
The so-called islands of government control are the heavily fortified CRPF camps, one every five kilometres along the dusty highway. The state in these parts of ‘war zone’ Bastar, is pretty much outsourced to the CRPF. They, along with the Chhattisgarh police, have the difficult task of guarding contractors who risk their lives to build roads through Maoist territories.
Like Andhra did between 1995 and 2005, Chhattisgarh hopes that roads and mobile connectivity would help in winning the battle against Maoists.
The State’s Combative Forces
The districts that have seen Maoist surrenders, are those to which the state administration has managed to reach. This has been made possible by technology-aided real time intelligence gathering, use of drones and night vision glasses, that have helped the security forces push the Maoists deeper into the jungles.
Demonetisation was yet another blow. The Maoists had parked their money with their sympathisers overground and small-time contractors, and though they managed to exchange the old currency for new notes, it came at a huge discount.
Along with fissures in the Maoist ranks leading to surrenders and elimination of top guns, this has given the state the upper hand.
Their main source of income is through levies but we have managed to choke their financial resources. We dominate far more villages, and the youth in those areas prefer working in the towns or in brick kilns to picking up the gun for the Maoists.MS Bhatia, IG (Operations), CRPF (Bihar) to The Quint
But not everyone is convinced that Left-wing extremism in India is indeed on its last legs. A security expert who was at the forefront of Naxal elimination from erstwhile united Andhra Pradesh told The Quint:
We need to worry about the tri-junctions of Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha and Andhra where the Maoist elements have taken shelter. Areas in Kerala and Karnataka too could be new ‘theatres’ of Maoist operations.
Re-Grouping & Re-Strategising
Maoists are also known to opt for strategic retreat when they find the going tough, in order to regroup and re-strategise. Which is why it would be erroneous to conclude, solely based on data of violence, that the state has been able to clear districts completely.
VS Krishna, Visakhapatnam-based secretary of the Human Rights Forum, who has a deep understanding of both Andhra-Odisha border and Chhattisgarh ‘theatres’ of conflict told The Quint:
It is true that militarily the Maoists have been beaten back in several of their strongholds. It is not easy to militarily confront the Indian state on a sustained basis.
Tribal-Sensitive Development Imperative
But Krishna disagrees with the police theory that Maoists are now finding it difficult to get the support of people. He says:
That is not the case at all. They continue to attract support because they have always based their politics on resolving the grievances of the people, the poor, and powerless adivasis.
The ‘red corridor’, that at one time extended from the Nepal border down to south Andhra Pradesh, has shrunk considerably.
But the ‘greatest internal security threat’ to India will not be neutralised until the Indian state can flush out the outlaws out of Abujmarh and Bastar in Chhattisgarh, red zones in Bihar-Jharkhand and the Andhra-Odisha border.
However, it is necessary for the police approach to be accompanied by tribal-sensitive development, and not one solely decided and dictated by New Delhi.
(The writer is a senior journalist. He can be reached @Iamtssudhir. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)