Gujarat Polls Are Over, But Congress’ Hopes for ‘Navsarjan’ Remain

Elections in Gujarat may be over, but neither the Congress’ hopes for a resurgence (navsarjan) nor the BJP’s worries are over yet. Both Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani have won, in spite of the BJP’s aggressive campaign against them. The BJP, despite its tall claims of getting 150 seats, has managed to garner less than 100 seats.The BJP was successful in causing a breakaway of almost 20 seats from the Congress during the Rajya Sabha elections. The sabotage was led by the staunch RSS leader Shankarsinh Vaghela, who had also split the BJP, creating his own political party – the Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP). He had defeated in-house Keshubhai Patel to become the chief minister then. Later, Vaghela had little option but to join the Congress. While the BJP had hoped for higher returns by using Vaghela’s influence, their endeavour was hardly successful. Some of these turncoat leaders contesting this time on the BJP ticket have lost.It will take a while to analyse the reasons behind the loss of BJP’s vote base in 2017. BJP has lost its previously won 27 seats to Congress, as compared to the latter losing eight of its previously won seats to the BJP.Road Ahead for Rahul: Alliances and Straight Fights in 2018 & 2019The Dalits’ Silent ProtestThe Gujarat Assembly has 13 reserved seats for Scheduled Castes, of which 10 were with the BJP in 2012. The Congress has doubled its tally of SC reserved seats from three to six. It appears that the BJP has paid a price for the wounds it inflicted on Dalits, which was shown at its worst in the public flogging of Dalit youths at Una.Ram Vilas Paswan, claiming to be a Dalit leader, unsuccessfully tried to help BJP by describing the Una case as a ‘not-so-serious’ incident. The seven percent Gujarat Dalit population has made its biggest political statement through their silence. It is important to note that two BJP ministers on SC reserved seats have lost as there was strong Dalit protest against them for ignoring Dalit interests and harassing *Navsarjan Trust, the largest Dalit rights organisation in Gujarat.A New Ally of the CongressThe Gujarat Assembly has 26 reserved seats for the Scheduled Tribes. In 2012, the Congress had won 16 of these seats, while the BJP had won nine.One seat had gone to tribal leader Chhotubhai Vasava, who was contesting on a then undivided JD (U) ticket. The latter had played a trump card in the Gujarat Rajya Sabha election, where due to his lone vote, Chhotubhai Vasava had played the role of kingmaker, ensuring that the sole Congress candidate Ahmed Patel won.Thus, Chhotubhai Vasava, who is no more with JD (U), became a Congress ally. This political alliance has helped the Congress increase its tally to 18, with the BJP losing two seats.Gujarat Elections: Congress’ Gamble With Hardik Didn’t Pay OffMuslim RepresentationHas Alpesh Thakor been able to help the Congress? Yes, he has! Ganiben Thakor has created a stir by defeating BJP Minister Shankar Chaudhary. Thakor Sena has played an important role in helping Jignesh win. Thakor votes have helped Congress win some seats.Hardik Patel has made a lesser impact in Gujarat. In Surat, where his roadshows were impressive, there has been no change, as all the seats have gone to the BJP. Marginal impact can be seen in Saurashtra though.Although Muslims constitute about 8.5 percent of Gujarat’s population, the BJP has maintained its tradition of not giving a single seat to them. It has been looking for the slightest opportunity to make the Congress fall into the trap of ‘minority appeasement’. While the Congress did not proclaim their support for the Muslims, it gave the community five seats, one less than last time. The Muslims have won three seats, a significant representation after a very long time.So, Where is ‘Vikas’?The election campaign in Gujarat accidentally became viral with the slogan, ‘Vikas Gando thayo chhe’ (The development has gone crazy). This campaign left the BJP with little option but to officially defend ‘Vikas’. The campaign managed to divert attention to ‘non-issues’.However, there was an uneasy calm that neither the Congress, nor the BJP managed to gauge. It was anger. Dalit anger, Adivasi anger and Muslim anger – all of which was ignored.It was this Muslim-Adivasi-Dalit factor that frustrated the BJP. It is an incarnation of Kshatriya-Harijan-Adivasi-Muslim (KHAM), with some modifications that had helped Congress to stay in power in Gujarat for a decade and half before it became BJP’s bastion. Gujarat has now become a model for navsarjan in India.Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017: Five Key Takeaways *It should be noted that the writer is the founder of Navsarjan Trust.(The writer is a Gujarat-based Dalit human rights activist. He was awarded the prestigious Robert F Kennedy Human Rights Award in 2000. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)(Breathe In, Breathe Out: Are you finding it tough to breathe polluted air? Join hands with FIT to find #PollutionKaSolution. Send in your suggestions to fit@thequint.com or WhatsApp @ +919999008335)

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Gujarat Polls Are Over, But Congress’ Hopes for ‘Navsarjan’ Remain

Dalit activist Martin Macwan explains how the ‘minority card’ played out in Gujarat Assembly elections 2017.

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Topics: Attacks on Minorities Dalit Movement Dalit Atrocities