The Northeast’s Big Political Merger Dream Is Already Fraying

On 4 November, two prominent leaders from the northeast — Pradyot Kishore Debbarma of TIPRA Motha and Meghalaya chief minister and National People’s Party (NPP) supremo Conrad Sangma — announced to form a new political entity. They were accompanied by Daniel Langthasa of newly formed People’s Party of Assam and Mmhunlumo Kikhon, ex-spokesperson of the BJP.It should be noted that both TIPRA Motha and NPP are constituents of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). While Motha is a junior partner in the BJP-led government in Tripura, the saffron party is a junior partner in the NPP-led government of Meghalaya. The Last Hoorah? Muivah's Return to Manipur Revives a Lost Dream & Old GhostsWhile Pradyot and Conrad are talking about the need for forming a common political entity in the region, many parties are yet to join the political entity. These include Nagaland’s ruling party Naga People’s Front (NPF), Mizoram’s ruling party Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) and the main Opposition party, Mizo National Front (MNF), Sikkim’s ruling party Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM), Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and United Progressive Party Liberal (UPPL) of Assam, People’s Party of Arunachal (PPA), and the two other parties of Meghalaya — United Democratic Party (UDP) and Voice of the People’s Party (VPP).In fact, the VPP, which won the Shillong Lok Sabha seat by defeating Congress, has criticised the move by saying it as an attempt to build a castle in the air.While the argument is that a common political entity can fight for the rights of the region, often neglected in the corridors of New Delhi, the main challenge is how this proposed entity will address the concerns of various ethnic tribes of the region when many parties representing these tribes are yet to join the entity. Why many of these above-mentioned parties haven’t shown interest to join the entity? Looking for an answer to this question raises several others: What is guiding the formation of this political entity? Is the move truly about serving the interests of all tribes in the region? Or is it more about serving political interests of the leaders like Pradyot and Conrad?Conrad Sangma has been in power in Meghalaya since 2018. It has been seen that he is battling anti-incumbency, and this was witnessed in the last Lok Sabha polls when his NPP failed to win any seat in the state. In his own stronghold, the Garo Hills, he is facing a challenge from the resurgent Congress, while in the Khasi Hills, the newly formed VPP has consolidated its presence, preventing NPP’s attempts to penetrate into the region.Facing twin-challenges from Congress and VPP, Conrad seems to be following the path of his late father, PA Sangma, the former chief minister of the state and a prominent leader from the region. Interestingly, PA Sangma had left the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and formed the NPP with the vision to form a national party with regional characteristics, particularly tribal interests. This effort failed as the party failed to achieve that objective. Now Conrad is trying to build a common party for the northeast. He believes that the formation of a new political entity, in which he will play a very prominent role, will elevate him as a leading politician in the northeast and position him to engage effectively with the Centre’s ruling party, the BJP. He believes that this approach will help him to maintain the trust of the state’s voters as they are likely to prefer a leader capable of securing essential central projects and resources for the state. By doing so, he aims to beat the anti-incumbency, which will turn into a decade by the time of the next state elections in 2028. On the other hand, Pradyot is also trying to reshape his political image through this new political formation. He believes that by being part of a large political entity, he is more likely to be in a stronger position to extract leverage with the BJP. In this way, he can show his tribal voters that he is capable of getting things like direct funding for the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) and extract other central resources by pressuring the Centre.Through this new political formation, Pradyot aims to blunt the criticism for doing little for the tribals. His party, Motha, has been in power in TTAADC for almost five years, and there have been accusations against the Motha-run administration in failing to curb rampant corruption and address issues related to drinking water, food shortages, roads, electricity and unemployment. The TTAADC elections are expected to be held by March next year. While many parties of the region are yet to join it, there has been confusion regarding the structure of the new party. Recently, the NPP state working president and cabinet minister Bruise Marak remarked that the regional parties like Motha would merge with the NPP as it remains the only national party from the region. This statement was later countered by Pradyot saying that the issue was miscommunicated. The NPP is already a national party having legislators in three other states like Nagaland, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. Clearly, in this political formation, the NPP, being the largest party, is likely to assert its dominance. The recent confusion gives an indication of this.Apart from this, it still remains uncertain what kind of political alternative this front is likely to provide to the voters of the region. The voters already have the option of regional parties, Congress and the BJP-led NDA. Interestingly, this political front, if indications are clear, isn’t an anti-BJP front. This lack of ideological stance is likely to harm the political aspects of this proposed political formation. But only talking about regionalism isn’t enough. Even Congress and BJP leaders of the region talk about regionalism. This political formation, at this point, appears to be an escape route for both Conrad Sangma and Pradyot Debbarma, and with many regional players staying away from it, its future impact remains uncertain. (Sagarneel Sinha is a political commentator and tweets @SagarneelSinha. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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The Northeast’s Big Political Merger Dream Is Already Fraying

It remains uncertain what kind of political alternative this front is likely to provide to the voters.

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Topics: Northeast India Tripura BJP