Caste Politics Made Nitish Kumar. In Bihar 2025, it Might Break Him

With the Election Commission announcing the dates for the Bihar Assembly elections this week, the state’s political landscape has entered its most charged phase in years. Campaign caravans have rolled out, alliances are fraying, and caste has returned to the centre of Bihar’s political vocabulary.The very idea Nitish Kumar once nurtured as the foundation of social justice—the caste-based census—now threatens to politically isolate him.When the Modi government announced in April 2025 that the upcoming population census would include caste enumeration, Nitish hailed it as vindication of his two-decade crusade. Yet, what seemed like a personal triumph has evolved into the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) most potent weapon in reshaping Bihar’s power matrix.The decision has since triggered a cascade of political developments, from Chirag Paswan’s solo electoral announcement to Jitan Ram Manjhi’s defiance within the NDA, Upendra Kushwaha’s quiet promotion to the Rajya Sabha, and the exodus of Muslim leaders from JD(U) after the Waqf property controversy. Added to this, the Congress’s Yatra through Magadh and Bhojpur reignited the Mandal-era discourse, further intensifying caste consciousness across the state.Each of these developments, unfolding since April, reveals a calculated effort to reduce Nitish’s political relevance even as he remains nominally at the helm of the NDA government. The Bihar of 2025 is not just electing a new assembly; it is witnessing the dismantling of an old order, and the BJP is orchestrating it with precision.Bihar Assembly Elections to Be Held in 2 Phases on 6,11 Nov; Counting on 14 NovThe caste census, which once symbolised Nitish’s ideological conviction, now mirrors his political vulnerability. The 2023 Bihar caste survey revealed that Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) together form over 60 percent of the population. Nitish saw in this an affirmation of his politics of representation. The BJP, long cautious about Mandal politics, saw in it an opportunity to expand beyond its upper-caste bastion.When the Centre adopted caste enumeration, Nitish initially appeared vindicated. But the months that followed revealed the erosion of his influence. The 2025 cabinet expansion exposed the shifting balance of power. The BJP took 21 of 36 ministerial berths while the JD(U) settled for 14, losing its earlier parity.More telling was the symbolism within those appointments. The BJP inducted Krishna Kumar Mantoo, a Kurmi from Nitish’s own community, alongside seven EBC ministers under its quota. It was a masterstroke, appearing inclusive while strategically encroaching upon Nitish’s most loyal caste bases.Meanwhile, Upendra Kushwaha’s elevation to the Rajya Sabha under the BJP’s quota, despite his weak showing in the Lok Sabha polls, demonstrated Delhi’s intent to create a parallel Kurmi voice. Kushwaha now speaks from the national stage as the BJP’s own social-justice interlocutor, subtly diminishing Nitish’s stature.Adding to his troubles, Jitan Ram Manjhi, whose Hindustani Awam Morcha holds just one MP, has been accommodated in the cabinet and now demands a larger seat share, emboldened by BJP’s patronage. Chirag Paswan, on the other hand, finds himself in a contrasting position. Despite his loyalty to Modi after the 2021 LJP split, he was earlier denied similar accommodation. Today, the BJP tolerates and even welcomes his decision to contest separately, knowing that it hurts Nitish far more than the NDA. The message is clear: compliant allies are rewarded, independent ones are used strategically.The erosion of Nitish’s Muslim support base has further weakened his position. Following the Waqf property controversy earlier this year, notable Muslim leaders such as Master Mujahid quit JD(U), accusing the party of capitulating to BJP pressure. With Muslims gravitating back to the RJD-Congress fold, Nitish’s once-formidable social coalition now appears fractured.If there is a phrase that defines the BJP’s Bihar strategy, it is Chanakyaniti, the art of neutralising allies by empowering their rivals. The 2025 cabinet expansion was the blueprint of this approach, executed with quiet calculation.While Nitish retained the title of Chief Minister, real control of governance shifted elsewhere. The BJP not only secured a majority of portfolios but placed EBC and OBC leaders loyal to Delhi, not Patna, in influential roles.The expansion was followed by carefully timed outreach initiatives. Party chief JP Nadda’s Patna visit in June and Amit Shah’s July rally in Darbhanga emphasised the BJP’s claim to represent “true social justice under Modi.” Nitish’s long-standing ideological turf was thus subsumed within a national narrative of inclusivity. The BJP’s message was subtle but unmistakable: it was now the guardian of backward-caste aspirations.Parallel to this, smaller NDA allies were mobilised as instruments of internal disruption. Manjhi’s assertiveness is encouraged to irritate Nitish within the alliance, while Chirag Paswan’s solo march mirrors his 2020 rebellion, designed to siphon JD(U) votes without directly hurting the BJP. Together, these moves form a two-front siege, one inside the NDA and another outside it.The Congress’s Yatra through Bihar added another layer of pressure, reviving the moral vocabulary of Mandal politics and posing an ideological challenge to both the BJP and JD(U). Yet the BJP deftly absorbed the challenge by showcasing its expanded cabinet as evidence of inclusion, seven EBC ministers, a Kurmi representative, and Dalit allies onboard. By institutionalising caste justice within its administrative framework, the BJP turned a moral argument into a political advantage.This strategy leaves Nitish in a paradoxical position. His policies have shaped Bihar’s social justice discourse, but his party no longer commands it. The BJP has turned Nitish’s own politics into its campaign plank, wielding the census as both shield and sword.Is PM's Cash Handout for Women in Pre-Poll Bihar an 'Open Bribe'? As Bihar heads into polling, the caste census has become the election’s central text.Every party interprets it differently: the BJP claims it as proof of Modi’s inclusive vision, the RJD-Congress alliance portrays it as the Centre’s opportunism, and Nitish, ironically, finds himself defending an agenda he no longer controls.The electorate itself seems to reflect this fragmentation. Around 20 percent of EBC voters remain undecided, while Nitish’s personal ratings have dipped to their lowest in years. The RJD’s consolidation of Yadavs and Muslims continues, and the BJP’s aggressive EBC outreach has expanded its base in northern and western Bihar. Even Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj movement, though electorally modest, has complicated Nitish’s narrative by reclaiming the language of reform and clean governance once associated with him.In this climate, the BJP’s Chanakyaniti is not about abrupt displacement but gradual absorption. Nitish Kumar still wears the crown, but its weight now depends entirely on Delhi’s goodwill. The 2025 Bihar election will not merely decide who rules Patna; it will determine who owns the grammar of caste politics.For now, Nitish’s greatest political legacy, the caste census, may end up writing the obituary of his power.(Ashraf Nehal is a political and foreign policy analyst and a columnist who mainly tracks South Asia. He can be reached on Twitter at @ashrafnehal19 and on Instagram at ___ashraf___19. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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Caste Politics Made Nitish Kumar. In Bihar 2025, it Might Break Him

The caste census, which once symbolised Nitish’s ideological conviction, now mirrors his political vulnerability.

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Topics: Nitish Kumar JDU Bihar Elections