Nepal is in the midst of a severe political and social crisis triggered by widespread youth-led protests. A deadly mixture of youth unemployment, corruption, authoritarianism, and general economic distress exploded over the weekend, taking with it not just the KP Sharma Oli government, but the entire political system with it.
What seemingly began as demonstrations against a government-imposed ban on major social media platforms has escalated into a broader uprising against corruption, economic stagnation, and the government system set up under the Constitution of 2015. The unrest, predominantly driven by the Gen Z cohort, has torched the dysfunctional system that gave the country 14 Prime Ministers in 17 years.
At times it has been a virtual merry-go-round that has seen Puspha Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda take office three times, KP Sharma Oli four times, and Sher Bahadur Deuba twice, (he had been Prime Minister three times earlier). The all-round attacks on politicians of all colours by the protestors in Kathmandu is a measure of the failure of the political class, regardless of their ideology to deliver even the rudiments of governance to the country.
The Nepal Army has now been deployed to restore order, with curfews and shoot-at-sight orders in place in several areas, including Kathmandu.
Meanwhile, a different battle of narratives has been playing out on news and social media in neighbouring India. As images of the violent people's uprising took over social media feeds, conspiracy theories of a US-led 'deep state' causing unrest in Nepal to instigate regime change started doing the rounds.
Others blamed the reckless Nepalese 'Gen Z' (who have since claimed that their protests were hijacked) for dousing the nation with violence, just to post a reel on TikTok. But beneath the shrill clamour of contrarian voices, Nepal's current crisis has been festering for decades. The outburst of resistance has followed years of misrule and economic inequality.
A Crisis of Unemployment
The Nepal government's decision to ban social media in an apparent bid to curb dissent may be the immediate spark. But the police’s use of lethal force leading to at least 19 deaths and 300 injuries transformed the protest into an uprising.
United through social media, a cohort of protestors belonging to the Gen-Z age rose against corruption and nepotism, economic distress and unemployment. Their burning of the Parliament building, the attack on the Supreme Court, the burning of the houses of several former Prime Ministers, and prominent media house like Kantipur is a measure of the width of their anger against the Nepali establishment.
The lethal combination of youth and unemployment gave the uprising its deadly edge.
A major problem in Nepal is employment. Nepal is not just mountainous, it has perhaps one of the most difficult geography in the world. It is landlocked between two great powers, India and China. Again geography makes it dependent on India, since the high Himalayas form a barrier in the north towards China.
The largely mountainous country does not have much agricultural land or other means of employment. The official rate increased to 10.70 from 10.60 in 2023. But this does not reflect the much higher unemployment reality that compels young Nepalis to migrate abroad in droves.
Strained Youth
The other issue is Nepal’s median age of 25.3, which means that roughly half of Nepal’s population (30 million or so) is younger than 25 years. Approximately three-four million Nepalese citizens are estimated to be working abroad, primarily in India, Malaysia, and the Middle East, with about 741,000 departing for foreign employment in the 2023/24 fiscal year alone.
Foreign labour migration is crucial for Nepal's economy, serving as a key livelihood strategy for many families and a significant source of remittances. But most of these immigrant Nepalis work low-paid and even menial jobs.
Remittances contributed approximately 26.6 percent to Nepal's GDP in 2023, with an estimated inflow of US$11 billion. This significant figure highlights remittance as a crucial pillar of Nepal's economy, surpassing the combined inflows from official development assistance and foreign direct investment. This high dependency, nevertheless, creates vulnerability to global economic shifts.
Deep State Fantasies
There are dark reports that foreign forces (read India, US, or Soros) are instrumental in the uprising. This is patently absurd. One of the figures being hailed by the uprising is Balendra Shah, the mayor of Kathmandu, who is known to have an anti-India background.
As for the US, there is no reason why it should foment trouble in so unpromising a place. Nepal has been dysfunctional for a long time and it does not need foreign forces to destabilise it.
Essentially, the protests are a cri de coeur of the young Nepalese who want a better future for their country and if their spirit is effectively channelised, perhaps the country can achieve a better future. Nepal may have been given a tough geographical luck of the draw, but it is not without resources like hydropower and tourism. It can perhaps effectively leverage its remittances to promote manufacturing and agro-industry.
Regional Implications for India
The run of events have been uncomfortable for New Delhi. Just as it had managed to douse fires in Sri Lanka and Maldives, Bangladesh caught fire. In Myanmar, the insurgency saw an uptick in 2024, especially in the areas bordering India.
And now we have the breakdown in Nepal, with whom India shares an open border which allows free movement of their citizens.
The Himalayan country shares a 1,750 km border with key heartland states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, as well as West Bengal, Sikkim and Uttarakhand. In the past, Nepal was used by Pakistan to promote terrorism in India and China, Nepal’s other neighbour would also like to use it to establish its dominance in South Asia.
There are no restrictions on Nepalese working in India, even on lower-level government jobs, or conducting business or even owning property. Because of this it is difficult to accurately say how many Nepalis live in India. Estimates suggest that four million.
As to the Indian citizens of Nepali origin, that could be a much larger figure. The Indian Nepali community has played a significant role in the Indian military and culture. Nepali is recognised as a state language by Sikkim and West Bengal and it is well known that Madhesiya Nepalis have “roti-beti” links with people across the border in Bihar.
The obvious question that comes to mind is: Can it happen here? Unlikely. India’s political geography is very different from countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh.
While New Delhi is the seat of government, it’s not quite where all the politics happen. Nepal is trying to be federal, India already is, with a multiplicity of languages and cultures, including political cultures.
Something that agitates Bihar, barely makes a ripple in Lucknow, Mumbai or Hyderabad, leave along Delhi.
The national capital is not particularly known for its agitational temperament of the kind we have witnessed in Kathmandu. The last uprising here was in 1857, against the British.
The Way Forward for Nepal
Despite the hard knock that the current democratic republic has got, its best course is to work with it and iron out its systemic flaws. There has been talk of restoring the monarchy, but that would be jumping from the frying pan into the fire.
The monarchy’s rule was hardly exemplary and indeed, largely responsible for the country’s present predicament.
The first task is to collect some credible leaders who can cobble together a new coalition to restore government functioning and social order. Perhaps the country needs to relook at its proportional representation system that often leads to fragmented parliaments.
But issues like corruption, nepotism and mis-governance are things Nepalis will have to tackle themselves and directly. At this stage, a huge responsibility devolves on the Army which has had to step in because almost all other organs of government, including its politicians, courts and bureaucracy have been found wanting.
(The author is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)