What NDPP-NPF Merger in Nagaland Means for Saffron Politics in the Northeast| Opinion

It is very unusual in politics when a ruling party, having a majority, merges with a party, which has been on a steady decline. This is what happened in Nagaland recently where the ruling Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) of Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio merged with the Naga Peoples Front (NPF), which then had only two legislators in the state Assembly. With this merger, NPF returned to power in the state after a gap of seven years with Rio—elected as the new president of NPF—as the chief minister. After the merger, NPF—now with 34 legislators—will be governing the state, although in alliance with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has 12 legislators and is a constituent in the Rio cabinet. The NDPP-NPF merger indicates that Rio wants to consolidate power in the state and emerge as the “undisputed Naga leader" of the current era. The NPF traces its continuous lineage to the state's oldest party—the Democratic Party of Nagaland (DPN), founded in 1963—and is seen as the party of the Nagas, with roots extending beyond Nagaland. The party has legislators in the neighbouring state of Manipur, and has a very limited influence in the three Naga-dominated districts of Arunachal Pradesh. His party, NDPP formed in 2017 after separating from NPF, remained within the borders of Nagaland in its journey of seven years. By going back to NPF, Rio indicated that he is now once again interested in Naga politics, not only limiting himself to Nagaland.The Last Hoorah? Muivah's Return to Manipur Revives a Lost Dream & Old GhostsAt a time when the Naga Peace deal is in a state of uncertainty, Rio desires to play a crucial role in shaping Naga politics, and sees power as a key tool in facilitating this. Since 2003, he—barring a period of four years—has remained in power in the state. He is in his mid 70s and knows that age is still on his side. However, he has been worried about his ally BJP and sees it as a threat. The saffron party, despite its Hindutva ideology, has been able to mark its presence in this Christian-dominated state after Modi came to power.However, the saffron party’s history goes beyond Modi's era. In the 2003 state elections, the party got its first major success by winning seven seats. After the end of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee's led BJP government at the Centre, the saffron party’s growth slowed down. It accelerated again after the BJP returned to the Centre in 2014. Also, the party capitalised on the decades old efforts of the Sangh parivar on the ground. The saffron party's growth in the state is particularly in the six districts of the eastern part of the state as the Naga tribes of this region feel neglected. This dissatisfaction has led to the emergence of the demand for a separate state, Frontier Nagaland. Apart from this, the party has a presence in the Wokha district dominated by Lotha Nagas, who despite being “advanced”, feel neglected in the state’s power structure. Also, the party capitalised on the decades old efforts of the Sangh parivar on the ground. The saffron party's growth in the state is particularly in the six districts of the eastern part of the state as the Naga tribes of this region feel neglected. This dissatisfaction has led to the emergence of the demand for a separate state, Frontier Nagaland. Apart from this, the party has a presence in the Wokha district dominated by Lotha Nagas, who despite being “advanced” feel neglected in the state’s power structure.Beside this, the party has expanded in the Mokokchung district, and has a presence in Dimapur, state’s commercial centre, owing to a substantial Hindu population. Mokokchung district has ten assembly constituencies while Dimapur district has two. BJP’s leader and deputy Chief Minister Y Patton comes from Wokha while the party's popular face on social media Temjen Imna Along, who is also a state minister, is from the Mokokchung district.BJP’s growing influence—also due to the party's right strategy to align with Rio—can be ascertained from the first Rio-led NDPP-BJP government, where the saffron party had six cabinet berths out of 12 with four going into NDPP’s kitty. To cut the BJP’s dominance in the power structure, Rio befriended former chief minister TR Zeliang-led faction of NPF. This led to the induction of 21 NPF legislators, including Zeliang, into the NDPP in 2022, despite NPF being a partner of the NDPP-led coalition. This internal power struggle was reflected in the last state elections where NDPP and BJP got into a proxy fight through parties like Lok Janashakti Party (RamVilas) (LJP(RV)) and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).While LJP(RV) was reportedly a proxy of the BJP, NCP acted as the proxy of the NDPP. Rio feared that if the BJP won a good number of seats, it might abandon NDPP and form a government on its own with the support of NPF and other parties. Assam chief minister and North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) chairman Himanta Biswa Sarma had to fly to the state to control the growing fissures during the election season, though the fissures remained on the ground. While NDPP lost two seats to BJP’s proxy LJP(RV), the NDPP dealt a stronger blow to the BJP through its proxy, NCP. Of the seven seats won by NCP, six were secured after defeating the BJP, including three in Eastern Nagaland. As a result, the BJP was able to win only four seats in the Eastern Nagaland—the same number it had secured in the 2018 elections. Had that not been the case, BJP could have won more than 12 seats it actually secured. It won the same number of seats in 2018 too. So, it wasn't a big surprise when the 7 NCP legislators merged with the NDPP this year, taking its strength to 32—above the majority mark—from 25 it had won in the elections. After forming the second NDPP-BJP government in 2023, Rio appointed Zeliang as the additional deputy chief minister alongside the already existing deputy chief minister, Patton of BJP — an attempt to reduce the saffron party's influence in the government.The saffron party’s share of cabinet berths were also reduced from six to five out of a total of 12. It has to be noted that Rio’s NDPP also gave the lone Rajya Sabha seat in 2022 to the BJP. The saffron party nominated S Phangnon Konyak, as a part of its expansion strategy in the Eastern Nagaland. The Konyaks are one of the eastern Naga tribes. This also shows Rio’s political shrewdness and cautiousness to avoid antagonising the central leadership of the BJP. While he maintains cordial relations with the Centre, Rio is cautious not to appear too close to the BJP within the state—a stance reinforced following the defeat of the NDPP to organisationally weak Congress in the state’s lone Lok Sabha seat last year. Can the Centre Bypass Mizoram, Nagaland and Fence the India-Myanmar Border?During the time of the merger, both NDPP and NPF were constituents of the NDA. But despite this, both merged and one of the main factors guiding this was to check the BJP’s growing influence in the state. Just months ago, there were talks of merger of United Peoples Party Liberal (UPPL) and Bodoland Peoples Front (BPF) of Bodoland region of Assam but this hit a roadblock for now. Interestingly, both are constituents of the NDA. Recently, Pradyot Kishore Debbarma of TIPRA Motha, an ally of the BJP in Tripura, has confirmed ongoing talks to form a common political entity or an alliance in the northeast.Pradyot has positively spoken of Rio’s efforts in unifying the Naga parties. Currently, the relations between Motha and BJP have deteriorated, with the latter intensifying its activities to expand its base in the Motha-dominated tribal belt.The NDPP-NPF merger is a major political development in the northeast as it is likely to serve as a template for the regional parties of the northeast that are eager to check the BJP's expansion in their strongholds while still remaining within the NDA. By this way, these regional parties can retain their influence in their bases while at the same time maintaining good relations with the BJP-led Centre for the resources needed to develop those areas.For the BJP’s central leadership, this strategy— though it may harm the party’s interests in the region—is unlikely to be seen as a major threat so long as the political fight remains friendly under the NDA’s umbrella, and effectively prevents the Congress from regaining its lost foothold in the region. (Sagarneel Sinha is a political commentator from Tripura. He tweets at @SagarneelSinha. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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NDPP-NPF Merger: A New Template to Contain BJP in Northeast While Staying in NDA

Neiphiu Rio wants to consolidate power in Nagaland and emerge as the “undisputed Naga leader of the current era.

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Topics: Nagaland BJP Northeast Politics Neiphiu Rio