The voters of Gujarat have spoken. Their verdict will be known on 18 December. However, the exit pollsters have already spoken. And they have spoken almost in unison, unlike in many previous elections, Vidhan Sabha or Lok Sabha.
If what they have said is anywhere close to the verdict of Gujarat’s electorate, the Bharatiya Janata Party will romp home to victory for the sixth consecutive time – that too with a tally in the vicinity of the impressive number of seats it had won in the 2012 assembly elections. The Congress, too, will remain more or less where it was five years ago ─ that is, its MLAs could number about half of the BJP’s.
Exit polls have gone wrong, sometimes horribly wrong, in the past. They might miss the mark again. But assuming they are right this time, one has to speculatively examine the reasons for the BJP’s victory and the Congress’ defeat.