Modi@4: How to Counter Job Shortage ‘Nonsense’ the Bhakt Way

Dear bhakts (and others who are forever on denial mode and therefore don’t matter to us),There has been a malicious campaign, unfortunately backed by some facts in certain cases, suggesting massive deceleration in job creation over the last few years. You will come across data based on studies done by seemingly big names like the World Bank, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) and our own Labour Bureau, indicating mass unemployment.Take a look at some of the headlines you would likely have encountered:CMIE says employment grew by a mere 0.5 percent in 2017 and labour participation rates have been constantly going down. New investment proposals too have dropped considerably.A recent World Bank report has observed that India needs to create many more formal jobs than what has been the case.A recent International Labour Organisation (ILO) report says that while the pace of job creation has picked up globally, India has bucked the trend and the situation is likely to remain the same for at least two more years.A leading business daily recently reported that the pace of job creation in recent years nearly halved from what was the case between 2006-11.The Promise of Job Creation & The Fluctuating Rate of UnemploymentNiti Aayog and E&Y’s Reports Counter the Malicious CampaignThese are disturbing headlines which can put you on backfoot while dealing with stubborn weirdos also known as anti-nationals in our scheme of things.Don’t lose heart as we offer you the wherewithal to tackle all bouncers coming your way.You just have to selectively read two reports. Yes, selectively. Don’t confuse yourself by reading full reports. For the benefit of all of you, here is a quick summary.The first report you are requested to read is titled “Report of the Task Force on Improving Employment Data.”Lies Spread About Lack of Jobs: PM, Quoting New, Contested, DataHere is a section from the Niti Aayog report which you can use on all occasions:“In principle, data from several government schemes and programmes such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), Pradhan Mantri Grameen Sadak Yojana (PMGSY), Micro Units Development and Refinance Agency (MUDRA), Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) programme, Housing for All, Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY), Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Grameen Kaushalya Yojana (DDUGKY), and various infrastructure projects and livelihood schemes create jobs. Till date, these sources have not been exploited to estimate job creation.”If you read this section along with a section from yet another report called Future of Jobs in India (E&Y), you have a brahmastra in your hand.The E&Y report says that “the Ministry of Rural Development (MoRD) reports that it created an additional 690 million man days in 2017 compared to 2015.” This translates to an additional 14 to 15 million beneficiaries whose incomes have grown.Welfare Schemes Create Jobs and They Are Not Counted as SuchJust to put things in perspective, government schemes create jobs and just one of them created opportunities for an additional 1.5 crore people in 2017 alone.If you count the impact of all government schemes in the country, there is not a single soul without a job.Anti-nationals may retort by saying that these are jobs that are barely enough for subsistence. These are jobs only for a few days in a year without any social security and other benefits. You can counter them by saying that we promised more jobs.Did we say anything about their quality? There is a limit to what we can do.There is a warning for all of you though. Please do not go into the fine print of these reports.The Niti Aayog report, for instance, cautions that “the major limitation in using data from these schemes (jobs created by government schemes) is that, in some cases, additions to payrolls may not represent new jobs and simply indicate employment shifts.”The best strategy is to restrict yourself to what is relevant and cut out the uncomfortable part.Why give anti-nationals any chance to counter whatever claims we make or likely to make?Data Galore to Bolster Accelerated Job Creation ClaimsThis is not the only argument we have to counter the jobless growth nonsense. The Niti Aayog report says that all the existing ways to count formal jobs are flawed and do not give the complete picture of the state of employment.It has therefore suggested that “the following be considered as formal workers”:Workers covered under Employees’ State Insurance and Employees’ Provident FundsGovernment and PSU employeesWorkers having coverage under private insurance or pension schemes or provident fundsWorkers subject to tax deduction at source‘No Job, No Vote’ Campaigner Attacked in K’taka CM’s ConstituencyThe last two categories give us enough opportunity to create data at will.Any buyer of a pension scheme becomes a formal worker.What if he had money at some point to buy many pension schemes and is unfortunately out of job now?What if a freelance writer offers content to more than one publication and is subjected to tax deduction at source at all of them separately?One TDS becomes one formal job? Such doubts will be raised by naysayers. Please do not pay attention to such silly arguments.Also ignore the sections of the Niti Aayog report cautioning us against using such sources mechanically.The Niti Aayog report highlights two major limitations of using such data without due diligence:There is a considerable overlap across all data sets; andAdditions to these datasets need not represent new jobs. For example, the law requires only companies with 20 or more workers to contribute to the EPFO in the names of its workers.Therefore, typically, a company joins the EPFO only when it crosses this threshold. But at the time of joining the bulk of its workers have already held their jobs for some time. They do not represent the addition of new jobs.”Best to delete these limitations.Employment Key to Better Future, Economists To Modi Before Budget E&Y Report to the RescueWhen in doubt, please read the E&Y report in parts. Here is a glimpse. The beauty of the report is in its vagueness. It says that there has been decoupling of growth and incremental job creation.It observes “increasing absorption of excess labor from farms into sectors other than organized ones (in contractual employment) and into self-employment/micro entrepreneurship opportunities.”And there has been “emergence of new employment opportunities enabled by Internet and exponential technologies.”You just have to remember words like decoupling, micro-entrepreneurship and exponential technologies.They have the potential to disarm hardened anti-nationals in heated verbal duel.Let us also remember that what we have sought to do is create something new. It can be judged only by new and evolving tools. All the existing tools are either biased and or have become archaic.Yours sincerely,New Data Creation and Dissemination (NDCD) Unit working for the well-being of bhakts.Macro-Employment Policy Conundrums: Analysing Indian Economy at 71(The Quint is now on WhatsApp. To receive handpicked stories on topics you care about, subscribe to our WhatsApp services. Just go to TheQuint.com/WhatsApp and hit send).

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Modi@4: How to Counter Job Shortage ‘Nonsense’ the Bhakt Way

As India faces the crisis of jobs shortage, jobs created by welfare schemes can best answer naysayers.

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Topics: India Jobs World Bank