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Lalduhoma, the IPS officer-turned-politician is all set to become the next Chief Minister of the Northeastern state of Mizoram as his party, the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), scripted history by breaking the tradition of power oscillating between the Mizo National Front and the Congress since the formation of the state in 1987. Out of the 40 assembly constituencies of the State Assembly, the ZPM has emerged victorious on 27 seats with a vote percentage of 37.86 per cent – a 15 per cent increase in vote share.
On the other hand, the incumbent MNF-led CM Zoramthanga was reduced to 10 seats, although it polled 35.10 per cent of votes – a decrease of 2.6 per cent. The Congress performed disastrously as it was reduced to only one seat and the vote share was reduced to 20.82 per cent – a fall of 9 per cent of votes. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) managed to increase its seat tally to 2 and polled 5.06 per cent but its vote share was reduced by 3 per cent.
The ZPM gained a significant chunk of votes from the Congress, apart from gaining votes from the MNF and also from the BJP in some seats.
Behind the Meteoric Rise of ZPM in Mizoram Politics
After the stunning performance registered by the ZPM, which first came into existence in 2017 as a coalition of six parties in 2017 and later transformed into a political party in 2019, many are comparing this new player’s rise with the rise of Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) -led by Arvind Kejriwal in New Delhi.
Even if resemblances can be drawn with AAP which too rose to prominence by challenging both the Congress and the BJP in Delhi through its drive of a 'corruption-free' political system, ZPM's ascension to state politics isn't quite the same.
The reason is that, unlike Kejriwal at the time of forming his government back in 2013, Lalduhoma isn’t a new face in Mizoram and his ZPM is practically, old wine in a new bottle.
Lalduhoma has been in politics since the 1980s. He was first in the Congress and was elected as its candidate from the Mizoram Lok Sabha constituency in the 1984 elections. Later, he joined the Mizoram People’s Conference (MPC), which ruled the state from 1978 to 1984 with an interruption by the President’s rule for a brief period. He was also in the MNF but later broke away from the party to form his own party, the Mizo Nationalist Front (Nationalist). The party contested 24 seats and polled 9.23 per cent of votes but failed to win any seat.
Later, he changed the name of the MNF(N) to the Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP). It contested 27 seats in the 2003 state elections in alliance with MPC and was able to send two legislators and Lalduhoma was one of them. In the 2008 elections too, ZNP won 2 seats – with Lalduhoma winning from the Aizawl West-I constituency – in alliance with MPC but it failed to win any seats in the 2013 state elections.
In 2017, six parties, including Lalduhoma-led ZNP and MPC, decided to form a coalition called Zoram People’s Movement, which went on to win 8 seats in the 2018 state elections and became the main Opposition party with Lalduhoma becoming the leader of the Opposition in the State Assembly.
Later, this coalition was converted into a single political party but a faction of ZNP and MPC didn’t agree to this merger.
ZPM’s Promise To Bring a Change Resonated With the Voters
Although ZPM is a party comprising most of the ZNP and MPC, it was able to transform itself into a new party by expanding its base among the voters, particularly the youth, by promising a change.
Notably, in this election, the party gave tickets to 15 new fresh faces. As Lalduhoma remained untested for the post of chief minister, his promise of making the state free from corruption resonated with the voters of the state, where governments of both MNF and Congress have faced allegations of corruption.
Even this time too, what worked in ZPM’s favour, was the MNF’s failure to keep up its promise of providing 3 lakhs to household families for taking up trade of their preference through its flagship programme 'Socio-Economic Development Policy (SEDP). It was able to assist Rs 50,000 to 60,000 families and another 60,000 families were provided Rs 25,000. There have been allegations of irregularities while implementing the SEDP with the Opposition alleging that real beneficiaries didn't get the money.
Sweeping the Urban Areas Helped the Party Largely
One of the reasons that helped the ZPM largely to win the elections was the clean sweep it registered in the urban areas. There are a total of 21 urban seats and the party won 19. It was the urban seats which gave the party a big lead taking it close to the required majority mark of 21. Anti-incumbency against the MNF due to unemployment and the backward condition of the state’s infrastructure played a big role in the urban areas to replace the MNF with ZPM.
The party won big in the capital city of Aizawl. It swept all 11 constituencies falling under the Aizawl Municipal Corporation. Last time, the ZPM had secured 6 seats while MNF had to remain satisfied with 5. In the Aizawl East-I constituency, the party’s Lalthansanga – who earlier was in the MPC –emerged as the giant killer in this election by defeating the sitting CM Zoramthanga.
However, this isn’t that surprising in a state where there has been a tradition of sitting chief ministers losing their seats whenever their governments were voted out.
ZPM’s Focus on Farmers' Issues Helped It Penetrate the Rural Belt
The party also got the same kind of support in Lunglei city, the second-largest city in the state. As a result, the party was able to wrest all 4 constituencies, falling under the Lunglei Municipal Council, from the MNF.
In the last elections, the party won only one rural seat – Tuirial constituency – out of the 19 rural seats. If the party was to come into power, it knew that winning only the urban seats wouldn’t be enough; it also had to secure at least a moderate number of seats in the rural belt. For this, the party focused on farmer issues.
It promised that its government would be farmer-friendly and there would be a minimum support price for four local produce – ginger, turmeric, chili, and broomstick.
The results of these efforts were visible on 4 December when the party won 8 new rural seats but lost the Tuirial seat this time. In the rural belt, where MNF somehow was able to maintain the lead by winning 9 seats, the ZPM’s gains came mostly from the Congress.
The ZPM Successfully Expanded Beyond the Aizawl Region
In the last elections, ZPM won most of its seats – 6 out of 8 it had won –from the Aizawl region. This time the party swept the region by winning 13 out of 14 seats – an increase of 7 seats. Only the exception was the Tuivawl constituency – won by the MNF.
In the North region, last time ZPM was able to win only 2 seats. This time it witnessed an increase of 6 seats. Of the 14 seats of the region, it grabbed 8 seats while the MNF was reduced to 6 seats. However, the Mamit district of this region remained untouched by the ZPM wave as all 3 seats of this district were secured by MNF.
In the South region, where the party wasn’t able to open its account, ZPM was able to win 6 out of 12 seats – and emerged as the largest party in the region.
However, the party’s gamble to ally with the Hmar People’s Convention produced mixed results in the ethnic Hmar-dominated areas with the party wresting the Chalfilh seat from the MNF but the other two seats – Serlui and Tuivawl – were retained by the MNF.
It remains weak in the areas dominated by ethnic minorities like Buddhist Chakmas and Christian Maras. The two Chakma-dominated seats –Tuichawng and West Tuipui – were secured by the MNF while the two seats – Saiha and Palak – of the Mara-dominated Saiha district were grabbed by the BJP.
Now, the major challenge for the party is to bring the real change it had promised to the voters, particularly the youth and the farmers. Amid the euphoria of the spectacular victory, it shouldn’t be forgotten that the MNF has lost the polls, but not relevance. It has a 35 per cent vote share and 10 seats in the Assembly Polls – making it a strong Opposition.
Apart from this, the Northeastern state is already facing a refugee crisis with the influx of Chin-Kuki people from Myanmar and Bangladesh and the influx of Kuki-Zomi people from Manipur.
Another thing to be noted is that the ZPM has said that it will maintain cordial relations with the Centre – giving rise to speculations that it may be the new constituent from the Northeast to join the NDA.
(Sagarneel Sinha is a political commentator and tweets @SagarneelSinha. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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