With the CBI’s arrest of Delhi Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia, the Modi government has taken its feud with Aam Aadmi Party to Arvind Kejriwal’s doorstep.
Sisodia’s arrest is a body blow for the AAP boss. Not only is he the number two man in the Delhi government, holding as many as 18 portfolios including key ones like finance, home, education, and PWD, but also Kejriwal’s chief lieutenant, trusted political aide, and the face of AAP’s showpiece education policy.
Without Sisodia to shield him, Kejriwal has nowhere to hide. His abilities as an administrator will be open to scrutiny now. Sisodia’s absence also leaves him exposed to the barbs and salvos the Centre fires regularly at the Delhi government.
Sisodia’s arrest is a body blow for the AAP boss as he is the number two man in the Delhi government, holding as many as 18 portfolios and Kejriwal's most trusted aide.
In Punjab, Kejriwal's promise of delivering the Delhi model of improved education and healthcare is unravelling as law and order deteriorates and Khalistani preacher Amritpal Singh throws up grave security challenges.
Although the spectre of Kejriwal’s arrest looms after Sisodia was picked up by the CBI, it is widely held that the Modi government is unlikely to put the AAP chief behind bars.
Kejriwal bounced back in Delhi to win a huge majority back in 2015 after a brief but rocky first stint in government. He did it in Punjab last year after failing to live up to expectations in the 2017 assembly polls and swept to power.
Sisodia’s arrest signals the start of a high-pitched battle of wits between AAP and Kejriwal on one side and the BJP and CBI on the other.
It’s bound to take its toll. As he was being taken into CBI custody, Sisodia predicted that he may be gone for eight to nine months. That’s a long time for Kejriwal to operate without his Man Friday.
Sans Sisodia, Arvind Kejriwal May Have His Back Pressed to the Wall
Never before has the AAP chief been so vulnerable. In Delhi, he has lost his righthand man who freed him from the daily responsibility of governance so that he could focus on politics.
In Punjab, his promise of delivering the Delhi model of improved education and healthcare is unravelling as law and order deteriorates and the appearance of Khalistani preacher Amritpal Singh throws up grave security challenges as evident from the storming of a police station in Ajnala near the Indo-Pak border.
Kejriwal’s political trajectory in the coming months will depend on two things. One is whether the CBI can establish a money trail linking the liquor policy scam to Sisodia and take it further to turn the heat on Kejriwal.
The other is whether Kejriwal is able to counter the CBI’s investigations with a convincing enough political narrative to paint himself (and Sisodia) as the victim of a witch hunt and punch holes in its hunt for a scam in the now withdrawn excise policy of the Delhi government.
Is Kejriwal the Next Target for Modi Govt?
Although the spectre of Kejriwal’s arrest looms after Sisodia was picked up by the CBI, it is widely held that the Modi government is unlikely to put the AAP chief behind bars. Such a move would only strengthen his claim of a witch hunt and give him the opening he needs to whip up sympathy as a victim of Modi’s fury.
There is a school of thought that it suits the Modi government better to keep Kejriwal dangling. It is being felt that this would make him more amenable to pressure, creating room for the Centre to run Delhi from the North Block.
In a twisted way, Kejriwal has also proved to be a political asset for Modi and the BJP despite his anti-BJP tirades and his dalliance with Opposition leaders like Telengana CM K Chandrasekhara Rao and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee.
As the recent Gujarat assembly election results showed, Kejriwal’s professed national ambitions serve the BJP well by whittling down the Congress. AAP’s venture into Modi’s home and its high-voltage campaign split the opposition vote, facilitated a huge BJP victory and decimated the Congress.
Why then would the Centre want to put Kejriwal away? However, those who know Kejriwal well feel that the AAP chief should not be underestimated. He has shown remarkable resilience and an enviable ability to bounce back from the depths of despair.
Will the AAP Chief Bounce Back From This Setback & Hold the Fort?
Kejriwal did it in Delhi to win a huge majority back in 2015 after a brief but rocky first stint in government. He did it in Punjab last year after failing to live up to expectations in the 2017 assembly polls and swept to power.
He is also a whizz at playing the victim card and has managed to out-manouvre the Modi government on several occasions by casting himself as David and the Centre as the wicked giant Goliath. The role has earned him sympathy repeatedly and helped him to consolidate his position in the Capital.
Sisodia’s arrest signals the start of a high-pitched battle of wits between AAP and Kejriwal on one side and the BJP and CBI on the other. It will only intensify as the 2024 Lok Sabha polls nears. The sufferers will be the people of Delhi and Punjab who will have to bear the cross of severe governance deficit amid politics of the worst kind.
(Arati R Jerath is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @AratiJ. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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