In September 2013, the then-Gujarat Chief Minister (CM), Narendra Modi, was anointed Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 General Election, about eight months before the nation went to the polls. This was, of course, the official announcement. Modi’s campaign team had begun pitching him for the top job much earlier, after he had led his party to a second consecutive Gujarat Assembly election win in 2012.
Now, towards the latter part of 2021, at a time when the next parliamentary election is just over two years away, we have West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee taking a leaf from the Modi campaign book, investing in systematic stage-setting after a notable triumph on home turf, and giving herself time to cement her credentials as a worthy prime ministerial candidate in popular mind space.
The idea is to present herself as the punchiest voice in the opposition ranks and a champion/saviour of constitutional values.
Certainly, Mamata matches Modi in terms of political savvy, ruthlessness, physical energy, and an earthy image. But for four reasons, she will face a challenge in generating the kind of momentum Modi did in 2014.
Modi Is Still Very Popular
Unlike in 2014, where the disappointments with the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-II and the mobilisation under the ‘India Against Corruption (IAC)’ umbrella had created a mood for change that Modi could capitalise on, anti-incumbency sentiment against the Modi government remains (confoundingly) manageable.
Sure, it could – and does – hurt in state elections, and public protests against the contentious citizenship law and farm law changes have sparked hope among the government’s detractors.
But it is tough to argue that the majority of India’s voters are itching to see the back of the Modi government.
Yes, it is less about performance and more about the headiness of the Hindutva concoction. But that does not make the Modi government a lame duck.
Winning the Hindi Heartland
Modi’s BJP had a sizeable footprint in the Hindi heartland, plus Gujarat, Karnataka, and Maharashtra, to build on, offering an existing and large voter base. To this, a smart and energetic campaign added enough to propel Modi to the Prime Minister’s chair with a mandate not seen in three decades. Modi’s Hindi-speaking skills cemented the advantage in no small part. And it helped that the only other claimant for the opposition space at the national level was the newbie Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
In contrast, Mamata’s All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) has only one large state, West Bengal, to bank on and is unlikely to add another large state to this before 2024.
Mamata’s only way of finding a large, readymade base is to encroach into the space the Congress currently occupies, which she is attempting to do. This is going to be tougher than elbowing out a fledgling AAP; the Congress, its slide notwithstanding, is an established entity and continues to be seen even by political rivals as crucial to any effort towards fighting Modi’s BJP. The West Bengal CM also doesn’t quite have the Hindi oratory skills to set the electorally important heartland’s pulse racing.
The Lure of the 'Gujarat Model'
A key element of Modi’s 2014 pitch was his supposedly exemplary governance record as Gujarat Chief Minister, something that he promised to replicate countrywide with urgency and zero tolerance for shibboleths. This was critical to earning the crucial ‘plus’ vote that Modi needed and for his campaign to enjoy a respectable veneer at a time when there was still some coyness about openly embracing Hindutva.
Gujarat wasn’t the model state it was made out to be, but friendly noise from the mainstream media and industry captains and an ad blitzkrieg drowned out scrutinous voices. That said, Modi convinced India that there was such a thing as the Gujarat model, and it worked.
West Bengal under Mamata has yet to emerge as a good governance beacon in popular perception, a showcase of what Mamata can achieve when she makes it to the prime ministerial chair.
The 'TINA' Factor
Modi took on a rival formation that had lost control over its narrative. Mamata is up against a strong propaganda machine that has co-opted the media, celebrities, and other influencers, allowing it to get away with tall claims, distract the public from bad news, amplify even routine decisions as masterstrokes and deride Modi’s political rivals. All this is done so incessantly and with such messianic projection of Modi that it has locked many Indians into believing in a ‘TINA’ (there is no alternative) factor. Add to this the BJP’s formidable war chest, and the magnitude of the task of dislodging Modi underscores itself.
In short, Mamata is short of tailwind, doesn’t have a strong launchpad (that is, a voter base beyond West Bengal), has yet to craft a truly compelling pitch (currently oppositional in tone, lacking the transformative appeal needed), and runs the risk of even her current limited narrative being rendered ineffectual.
Pointing to Modi's Failures Isn't Enough
Given these factors and the many legitimate reasons why the BJP’s 2024 bid for power must not go unchallenged, it is sensible of Mamata to have begun plotting in advance. However, in focusing energies largely on gnawing at the Congress edifice, she is missing the bigger picture.
The assumption that a takeover of the Congress tent – if it materialises, and this is a big if – will be enough to trump an oddly resilient Modi factor, the BJP’s well-oiled election machinery and its ‘ideological’ creep into public institutions and popular mindspace, is questionable.
After all, Mamata is in the ring as a contender for the prime ministerial position, not just the central opposition figure.
Recognition as the principal challenger is important, but what will determine the outcome is not making it to the title clash but an awareness of the current title holder’s strengths and vulnerabilities, and a strategy to deny him his most damaging punches and capitalise on the chinks in his armour. It is here that Mamata’s current game plan is falling short.
What could Mamata do differently? If the priority is to usher in a change at the top, she is better served helping stitch the best possible strategy and coalition to take on the BJP.
That endeavour must be located in an appreciation of her own limitations, what the Congress and other opposition parties bring to the table, and in creating and sustaining a narrative that goes beyond pointing to the Modi government’s failures and offers an alternative path ahead.
Much of this is obvious. Operationalising it will require sagacity, heart, and grit – and collaborations.
What’s needed is not just opportunistic electoral alliances but meaningful partnerships where parties, in the lead-up to 2024, systematically pool ideas, cohere them into animating messages and agendas balancing the national and the local, and back each other when under fire.
Personal ambitions and local political dynamics will not make this easy but will have to be contended with. The costs of hubris, infight, and inertia, they would know, will be higher.
(Manish Dubey is a policy analyst and crime fiction writer and can be contacted at @ManishDubey1972. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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