Maharashtra: Congress Resurges, Uddhav Holds Steady, and Sharad's NCP Dominates

After Uttar Pradesh, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered its biggest losses in Maharashtra in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. While it was expected that the BJP and its allies would suffer some losses as they were up against a seemingly strong tripartite alliance of the Congress party, the Shiv Sena (UBT), and the NCP (SP), the extent of these losses has been much bigger than expected. The BJP and its allies could only secure 17 out of the state’s 48 seats, while the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) bagged 30 seats. One seat, Sangli, went to Vishal Patil, a Congress rebel who contested independently and is expected to return to the party's fold. It effectively means that the MVA parties have bagged 31 out of the state’s 48 seats. Given the constant state of political turmoil that the state has been for the last five years, the results are significant. They are not only a reflection of what the electorate thought of the events that have unfolded but also a hint at where Maharashtra politics might be heading in the near future.The vertical splits in the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party were major talking points in the elections. Both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar not only lost their MLAs and MPs but also had to part with their party names and election symbols.PM Narendra Modi had hurled a “nakli Shiv Sena” jibe at the Uddhav-led Shiv Sena (UBT) during the campaign. But the results of the elections suggest that despite losing their elected representatives, some prominent leaders, and their party names and symbols, both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar have settled the “asli-nakli” question in their favour. Sympathy for Uddhav-Pawar, Maratha Ire: 5 Reasons Why BJP & NDA Lost MaharashtraThe Nationalist Congress Party (SP) versus the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party battle had a clear winner. Not only did Sharad Pawar's NCP get a much better seat-sharing deal from its allies, but it also registered the most impressive strike rate for any party in the state by winning eight out of the 10 seats it contested. On the contrary, Ajit Pawar’s NCP, despite having the party’s original name and symbol, could only manage to win a single seat out of the four it contested.Most notably in the high-prestige battle for Baramati, NCP (SP)’s Supriya Sule defeated NCP candidate and Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra Pawar by a comfortable margin of over 1,50,000 lakh votes.While there were some questions and concerns raised when the Sharad Pawar-led outfit decided to contest only 10 out of the state’s 48 seats after the MVA seat-sharing deal was formalised, the strategy to contest in fewer seats to maximise the resources available has paid off handsomely. The 83-year-old Maratha strongman has once again proved his mettle in Maharashtra politics and put to rest all the talks about his “retirement.”The Ajit Pawar-led NCP’s poor showing could force the BJP to reconsider its ties with the party, or at the very least, revise its terms of engagement with the party ahead of the state assembly polls. As for Ajit Pawar, there is some solace in the fact that at least going with the BJP has brought him some temporary respite from his legal troubles. It would not be surprising to see those with him go back to senior Pawar in the months to come.In the battle of the Senas, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena appears to have emerged as the side with more reasons to celebrate. It was able to get a much better seat-sharing deal from its allies, i.e., 21 seats, as opposed to the Shinde Sena, which secured only 15 seats in the Mahayuti alliance.While the Shiv Sena (UBT) won a total of nine seats with an impressive vote share of 16.52 percent, the Shinde Sena clinched seven seats with a much lower vote share of 12.95 percent.The Shiv Sena (UBT) and the ruling Ekanth Shinde-led Shiv Sena were locked in a direct contest for 13 seats. The final scoreline for these 13 seats was seven for the Shinde Sena and six for the Shiv Sena (UBT). But these final numbers fail to give us the actual picture of how the battle between the two Senas unfolded. Out of the seven wins of the Shinde Sena, two seats, Thane and Kalyan, came from the home turf of CM Shinde in Thane district, and the party was expected to win these seats. However, in the other 11 seats, the Shiv Sena (UBT) won six seats and outperformed the Shinde Sena. If the Mumbai North West Constituency, where Shiv Sena’s candidate Ravindra Waikar beat his rival from Shiv Sena (UBT) by just 48 votes, is left out, the Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena was able to defeat the Shiv Sena (UBT) decisively only on four seats.Central to the question regarding the "real Shiv Sena" was the electoral contest in the six seats of Mumbai. The city of the undivided Shiv Sena’s birth in 1966 has been umbilically tied to the party’s politics and fortunes for several decades of its existence. The Uddhav-led Shiv Sena (UBT)’s impressive performance in the city strengthens its claims of being the original Shiv Sena. The SS (UBT) won three out of the four seats it contested in the city and narrowly lost out to the Mumbai North-West seat. The only victory that the Shinde faction could clinch in Mumbai was Mumbai North-West, where it won by the barest of margins — the lowest across the country in this election, i.e., 48 votes.Apart from the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s better electoral return in these elections, especially in Mumbai, what is even more impressive is its ability to not only lead the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi but also transfer votes to its alliance partners more effectively. For instance, in the Mumbai North Central constituency, where the Mumbai Congress president Varsha Gaikwad was up against advocate Ujjwal Nikam, the transfer of traditional Shiv Sena votes was one of the crucial factors powering her victory in a closely fought contest. This is precisely what sets the Shiv Sena (UBT) apart from the Shinde-led Shiv Sena. The Shiv Sena (UBT) transferred the votes of its supporters to Congress and the NCP (SP) significantly, while the Shinde Sena was reliant on the BJP’s supporter base and Modi supporters for victory in the seats it contested. Many of those who voted for Shinde's Shiv Sena voted for the party because of the Modi factor. Despite the results proving that the Modi factor has significantly weakened in the state, it was still the strongest vote-pulling factor for the Mahayuti alliance.In that sense, the Shinde Sena’s vote share seems inflated. It also explains why the BJP could not benefit from a transfer of votes from the Shinde Sena.However, in the assembly elections, the Modi factor would be far less pronounced and it would mean greater trouble for the Mahayuti, but more specifically for the Shinde Sena, whose vote share would come significantly down.Time for Rahul Gandhi to Directly Challenge PM Modi — as Leader of OppositionIt would not be surprising to see many who had ditched the Thackerays to join the Shinde camp go back to the Shiv Sena (UBT) in the run-up to the assembly elections. A major issue in this election, especially in the urban pockets of the state, was the deep-seated resentment against the stepmotherly treatment being given to Maharashtra, a direct consequence of many key infrastructure and investment projects moving out of Maharashtra to other states, especially neighbouring Gujarat. The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi, especially the Shiv Sena (UBT), was able to tap into this resentment and capitalise on it. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena has also expanded its voter base by getting votes from Muslims as well as many who were traditionally opposed to voting for the party in its old, undivided, and somewhat pugnacious avatar. But the gentrified Shiv Sena (UBT), which has shown clear signs of ideological transformation and moderation in the last decade or so, has also shown the potential to emerge as a centre-of-the-road regional party that speaks about the needs and aspirations of the state and its people.The other big surprise was the Congress party's emerging as the single largest party in Maharashtra. Despite contesting fewer seats than ever before in Maharashtra, the Congress won 13 seats out of the 17 it contested. Effectively, the Congress has won 14 seats, as Vishal Patil, who contested independently in Sangli after the seat was allotted to the Shiv Sena (UBT) instead of the Congress, is all set to return to the party.Not only has the party improved its vote share and bagged the highest number of seats, but it also has the second-best strike rate among all parties in the state, after the NCP (SP), which contested seven fewer seats. Widely seen as playing a supporting role to the NCP (SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT) and the “weak link” in the MVA, the Congress was able to make a stunning comeback in the state on the back of its improved performance in its old fortress of Vidarbha, which it wrested from the saffron party. Not being in the limelight, managing internal differences, and the Bharat Jodo Yatra passing through some rural pockets of the state where the party has done well, appear to have driven the Congress party’s improved performance.It is in Maharashtra that the party’s strike rate in head-to-head contests with the BJP has improved significantly and is in its favour. In no other state across the country does the party enjoy a better head-to-head record with the BJP.The BJP has suffered a contrasting fate in Maharashtra. Despite fighting for more seats than in 2014 and 2019, the BJP has suffered a substantial loss in the state. The party that contested 28 seats could only win nine seats. The BJP’s poor showing in the polls is not only a result of the law of diminishing returns catching up with the Modi factor and the anti-incumbency directed at the central government but also a consequence of the resentment and anger reserved at the ruling regime in the state and the misadventures of the BJP in the state over the last three years. The saffron party’s experiments, which involved splitting the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party, have, as expected, proven detrimental to it. On the ground, one could sense that there was a palpable sense of anger against the splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP and the political realignment in the state which many saw as a direct consequence of the BJP’s “power at all costs” principle. Interestingly, Devendra Fadnavis, the man who was at the centre of all these moves and experiments of the BJP in the last few years, has offered to tender his resignation as the deputy CM and home minister to “strengthen the party organisation ahead of the October assembly polls.” The timing of this move is questionable. Fadnavis could be blamed not only for the misadventures of the BJP in the state but also for failing to defend his own home turf of Vidarbha in the polls. The results of the Lok Sabha polls have made it clear that the BJP faces an uphill battle in the state assembly elections scheduled for October. Unlike the MVA, the BJP’s allies are not handy, and the BJP has to do all the heavy lifting in the Mahayuti.Furthermore, there exists considerable anger against the BJP for what it has done to two “Marathi parties.” The BJP’s Mahayuti alliance would only get more overcrowded with the entry of Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. Even the Ajit Pawar-led NCP would demand a greater share of seats in the assembly despite its poor Lok Sabha election performance. The BJP’s first challenge would be to arrive at a seat-sharing deal, which in itself seems like a tall task. For the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi, most things are in order. With Sharad Pawar as the strategist, Uddhav as the face of the alliance, and a resurgent Congress performing to its best abilities, everything seems to be working out. What could possibly be a problem is seat sharing. Emboldened by its better performance in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress could take a more rigid approach at the negotiation table. It could also be possible that, along the lines of Sangli, MVA constituents could be engaged in friendly fights in some seats in the assembly polls. Ensuring that these micro battles do not have a macro effect on the overall, state-wide fortunes of the alliance would be crucially important for the MVA. If the MVA does not horribly mess things up or commit any kind of political harakiri, a Bihar 2015-like result could be on the cards in Maharashtra, with the MVA inching close to a two-thirds majority in the assembly.(An alumnus of Mumbai’s St. Xavier’s College, Omkar is currently pursuing a Research Master's degree in Politics at Sciences Po, Paris. His research interests and publications focus on issues and themes like party politics and electoral competition in India, populism, Dravidian politics, voting behaviour, and representation of minorities in India’s lawmaking bodies. Currently, he is working on the ideological transition of the Shiv Sena in the post-Bal Thackeray era. He is an incoming PhD student at Temple University where he would research electoral politics in India This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)Chandrababu Naidu is Architect of Andhra Sweep, Pawan Kalyan the Man of Match

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Maharashtra: Congress Resurges, Uddhav Holds Steady, and Sharad's NCP Dominates

For the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi, most things are in order for the upcoming assembly elections.

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Topics: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections