Jammu and Kashmir: Should New Delhi Extend an Olive Branch to J&K CM Omar Abdullah? Decoding NC's U-Turn on Article 370| OPINION

“Aaj mausam ne bhi aapka saath diya, aasman main ek badal ka tinka bi nahi hai” (Even the weather has favoured you today, there isn't a trace of a cloud in the sky.”)These words by Omar Abdullah to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was in Srinagar last month to inaugurate the Z-Morh tunnel, took many by surprise, given the National Conference (NC) had sought votes in the recent Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly elections to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at bay.Not just that, the NC had pledged that they would release political prisoners, restore Article 370, and push for the restoration of statehood. But that was before they came into power; much has changed since.Abdullah hinted at a thaw towards the BJP-led government soon after he took over as chief minister in October last year. Instead of actively working to restore Article 370 as promised, Abdullah softened his stance on the subject shortly after assuming the office.Ganderbal Attack: The Security Situation is Already Spiralling for Omar AbdullahThe J&K CM told the media in October to "set aside" the Article 370 issue, since its restoration was not an option with the BJP government.However, that has been far from the only example of Abdullah "softening" his stance towards the BJP. At the January inauguration, he praised Modi for over five minutes, commending his efforts to bridge the gap between Kashmir and Delhi, holding Assembly elections on time, and addressing various development issues. So much for "looking into the eyes" of the BJP government.Over 100 days into his tenure as CM, Abdullah finds himself in a challenging position, grappling with rising public discontent and mounting political pressure from the Opposition parties and the public. Ever since he has come into power, Abdullah has either had to backtrack on decisions he has made or face harsh criticism.In November, the NC government received backlash after they introduced a "half-hearted" resolution that sought the restoration of Article 370. Next month, an MP from Abdullah's party, Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, led a massive student protest outside the CM’s residence in Gupkar, Srinagar. In January, Sajjad Gani Lone from the Peoples Conference accused Abdullah of "justifying everything the BJP does" and of "being Delhi's man in Kashmir." This came after media reports claimed that the new train service between Delhi and Kashmir would have halts at Katra railway station. After being called out by Lone, Abdullah was forced to take a public stand against the move, saying that that making passengers change trains would "defeat the very purpose of the line."'Direct' Rail Connectivity to Kashmir Isn't All That DirectAbdullah's challenges extend beyond regional differences, with his relationship with the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc, being in the limelight of late.He has been sharp with his criticism of the alliance, making public statements about a "lack of clarity" in leadership and suggesting that the entire alliance should be wound up.Days before the Delhi Assembly elections, he launched another attack on the INDIA bloc, warning that internal rifts could undermine the larger goal of the alliance.After the Aam Aadmi Party's defeat and the Congress's dismal performance in the elections, Abdullah tweeted a meme saying, "Aur ladho aapas mein" (keep fighting with each other), taking a dig at his alliance partners. While the CM may have a point, perhaps it will be more relevant for him to look inwards.The Remarkable Resurrection of Omar AbdullahReports of the growing rift between Abdullah and Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha over the administration of the region have added another layer of complexity to the political landscape. It may seem that Abdullah is seeking to appease the Modi government in hopes of securing an olive branch to govern J&K and establish himself as the sole administrator by pushing for the restoration of statehood. Political observers in Kashmir argue that Abdullah isn't in a position to take cudgels with the Central government. Instead, his focus appears to be on reclaiming at least statehood for the region, which the BJP has publicly promised to restore "at an appropriate time."But his “cosying up” to the BJP may come it at a cost. There's a good chance it could impact his vote bank in the region, as people are upset with his “changing stance” and perceived alignment with a party they voted against. Noor Ahmad Baba, former professor of political science at the University of Kashmir, argues that Abdullah’s strategy appears to be focused on seeking and securing statehood through a process of appeasement and reconciliation. But Baba warns that if this approach fails, the NC could risk losing its support base. "Taking a confrontational stance with the Central government comes with its own risks. Annoying the Centre could bring trouble to his own government. As a result, Abdullah finds himself caught in a predicament. However, it is too early to assess his government and his performance."Noor Ahmad BabaWhile Abdullah may have given the impression that he wants to work with the Centre, the million-dollar question is: Will the BJP deliver on what Abdullah seeks? If it does, the NC is likely to secure victory in the next elections and build its narrative around the contrast with the People's Democratic Party (PDP), portraying the latter as complicit in the revocation of special status, while claiming credit for restoring statehood. They can, in fact, sustain this narrative in coming election cycles, portraying themselves as the true defenders of Kashmiri identity and autonomy, while emphasising the NC’s ability to negotiate effectively with New Delhi. But the situation may not favour the BJP either, which has been eyeing to form its maiden government in Kashmir with a Hindu CM since a long time now.The policy of “non-confrontation” towards the Centre would depend on how the latter responds. It could work out positively for Abdullah, as it may leave the BJP with no grounds to delegitimise his government. But if New Delhi continues its carrot-and-stick policy towards the region, and doesn’t restore the statehood during the NC’s tenure, Abdullah is likely to lose his electoral base. Perhaps people voted him into power to represent their aspirations and sentiments, and to take a stand on their behalf. However, as per political observers, the BJP may be waiting for Abdullah to make a “misstep” that could force him to resign.In fact, various attempts were made earlier to undermine and delegitimise this powerful political force in J&K. In both ways, this will lead to an unstable region once again, which is not in favour of both, the Centre, and the newly created UT. That said, Abdullah is struggling to convey to the public the practical challenges he faces in managing the affairs and the difficulties of serving as the CM of a union territory. All said and done, Kashmir is known as a graveyard of reputations and has remained unpredictable. What will be the next move of the people? Only they know it.History has, however, shown that anyone who leans towards the BJP in the Muslim-majority region is ultimately rejected by the people.Be it the PDP, Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party, Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party led by former minister Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari, or Peoples Conference, the people have punished all these political parties for aligning with the BJP. So, it will be difficult for New Delhi to make the NC irrelevant, as people in Kashmir don’t have any other option.It is time for them to respond to Abdullah’s overtures and respect the people's mandate, paving the way for a more prosperous and stable region.(Auqib Javeed is a Srinagar-based journalist. He tweets at @AuqibJaveed. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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Time for New Delhi to Extend an Olive Branch to Omar Abdullah?

The J&K CM's U-turn on Article 370 may get him closer to New Delhi, but could hurt him at home, writes Auqib Javeed.

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Topics: Narendra Modi BJP Article 370