Israel's Operation Rising Lion Puts Iran in a Tight Spot

In early hours of Friday, 13 June, Israel launched a large-scale preemptive attack, named Operation Rising Lion, on Iran, targeting military and nuclear facilities. The capital Tehran and other cities such as Isfahan, Kermanshah, and Arak are all strategically significant areas known to house industrial and military complexes. Eyewitnesses reported hearing massive explosions and seeing Israeli aircraft bombing Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) bases. The Iranian state media Noor News reported the collapse of several buildings and the destruction of a residential complex housing senior military commanders. Iran announced the deaths of several of its senior military commanders and nuclear scientists, including the elite IRGC Commander General Hossein Salami; another senior IRGC official General Gholam Ali Rashid; Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, Gen Mohammed Bagheri; prominent nuclear scientist Fereydoun Abbasi, and Mohammed Mehdi Tehranchi. The strikes also killed a number of civilians.Iran's official news agency confirmed the deaths of at least 12 civilians in Tehran. According to reports, Israeli military’s 200 jets were involved in the strikes— and about 100 targets were hit. Reuters, quoting an Israeli security source, reported that Mossad commandos had been operating deep inside the Islamic Republic before the attack—and the Israeli spy agency and military had mounted a series of covert operations against Iran's strategic missile array.According to the Israeli military, Iran's main nuclear enrichment facility Natanz has been sufficiently damaged in the strikes, but there has been no reports of any radiation. And Now, Israel Strikes at Iran. Will There Be Another Reprisal?Israel said the attack came in response to what it described as "ongoing aggression" by the Iranian regime. The Israeli military said the operation represented the "first stage" of a series of upcoming attacks targeting Iran's nuclear program and long-range missile capabilities. According to Israeli media reports, citing military sources, Iran possesses enough fissile material to manufacture approximately 15 nuclear bombs within days. In a statement, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said, “The convergence of the Iranian regime’s efforts to produce thousands of kilograms of enriched uranium, alongside decentralised and fortified enrichment compounds in underground facilities, enables the Iranian regime to enrich uranium to military-grade levels, enabling the regime to obtain a nuclear weapon within a short period of time." Israel has said this was an ongoing operation, with more strikes to come. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Israel it faced a “bitter and painful” fate over the attacks, while the Iranian military said there were “no limits” to its response. Prime Minister Mansour Pezeshkian has reiterated this, while Iran has also called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council. The US has denied any involvement, though US President Donald Trump told Fox News he had prior knowledge of the Israeli strikes. He stressed that Tehran “cannot have a nuclear bomb", and warned Iran against targeting American interests.A hint of the attacks had perhaps been in the offing when the US ordered all non-essential embassy staff to leave Iraq. The US military force deployed in the Gulf—estimated at 40,000 troops—has entered a state of high alert, and the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, equipped with F-35 fighter jets, has been deployed to the Arabian Sea.Pak, Iran Airspace Shut: Flights Hit; Tickets, Goods Prices to Soar, Experts SaySo what can be gleaned from these attacks? The timing and context is important. First, the large-scale targeting of military personnel and nuclear scientists shows that Israel has shifted from a policy of individual assassinations to focused collective strikes targeting high-profile leaders simultaneously. These deaths—like in the earlier assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and more recently of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran in an IRGC stronghold—represent a body blow to Iran's leadership structure and can be termed as part of the psychological warfare. Israel's Gaza Assault Has Changed the Optics of War. India Shouldn't Fall For itThese massive attacks are meant to not just cripple Iran's nuclear program but also to throw the regime into disarray with the simultaneous deaths of so many high-profile personnel. Second, the attacks come when Iran and the US have been holding negotiations in Oman over Iran's nuclear program, in particular, on Iran’s uranium enrichment. A sixth round is due on Sunday, 15 June, which the US has indicated will go ahead from its side. The attacks also come a day after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years. Both China and Russia have contested this claim, voting against the resolution which they said were maliciously motivated by vested interests. Iran responded angrily to the decision, believing it undermines the credibility of the IAEA itself. Third, it also reflects a failure of US policy in the Middle East.Trump had tried to talk Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu out of such an attack but has, to all purpose, failed. So has his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. Fourth, it is a reflection of the changed geopolitical landscape of the Middle East where Iran finds itself consistently weakened, and its earlier leverage on the Shiite arc eroded. Its protégé Hezbollah is a spent force in Lebanon which has increasingly slipped under Israeli and Sunni control. Its ally Bashar al-Assad has been toppled in neighbouring Syria by the very forces it had helped Assad fight. Its Shiite militias in Iraq are also on the backfoot, with Iraq looking more towards the US.According to reports, Israeli aircraft used Syrian and Iraqi airspace to launch strikes on Iran. The IDF has reported that all Israeli pilots have returned home safely. Finally, and most importantly for the Iranian regime, it is the enemy within that is dangerous. Israel claims Mossad commandos had been operating deep inside the Islamic Republic before the attack—and that it built a secret drone base in Iran for the operation on Friday, to strike ballistic missile launchers and destroy air defense systems points to Israeli penetration deep within Iranian territory which could only happen with internal collusion. It is this that the regime should find most alarming and take care of.Iran has launched 100 drones at Israel and some cruise missiles, but it can probably not do much more. Its proxies, except the Houthis of Yemen, are a spent force as of now, including Hamas in Gaza.Its partners and allies like China and Russia will not intervene militarily on its behalf. Unbelievable as it may sound, it will all probably go the way as all earlier Israeli attacks have gone—angry words and rhetoric, some drone and missile attacks, and possibly some attacks by the Houthis on Israel. Common sense demands that Iran find its way back to the negotiating table. Simultaneously, it is imperative for the US, the European Union, Russia, and China to persuade Israel from launching further attacks on Iran and desist from further inflating an extremely volatile region. The truth, nevertheless, is that no one wants to see a nuclear-armed Iran.(The author is an award-winning journalist specialising on Eurasian affairs. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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Topics: geopolitics Israel Iran