Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election, several parties opposed to the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party are rallying around the idea of forming state-level coalitions to block the BJP’s dominance.
Such a strategy is regularly touted by Congress President Rahul Gandhi. However, among India’s fifteen largest states, representing 85 percent of India’s Parliament seats, about half are unlikely to be impacted by such a strategy.
But with a somewhat weakened BJP, coalition-building will be an important tool for both major parties.
In the following chart, I review the important “coalition building” contests to watch in the months ahead, looking at how key parties fared in the 2014 Lok Sabha election.
In many states, the main fight will be directly between the BJP and Congress, with regional parties playing a very minor role. There are several states where the BJP remains quite weak and is not expected to contest for a substantial number of seats.