Who is he? That is the question on the minds of many in India—or at least it should be—in wake of the visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India.
The Indian government is still figuring out what to make of Yi’s trip to Delhi after three years. During his latest sojourn, Yi told his Indian counterpart, S Jaishankar, to look at each other as "partners and opportunities”. But it isn't Yi Indian should be worrying about. The real challenge for India at present is to find out more about China’s economic Tsar, He Lifeng, who takes all the key decisions on economy and trade for his country.
India suffers an acute lack of understanding about who calls the shots in China when it comes to business and economy. The US knows and so do many other countries. It’s not Foreign Minister Wang Yi or his army of foreign ministry officials that decide on who the Chinese should do business with, but the powerful confidante of President Xi Jinping, Vice Premier He Lifeng, the key decision maker.
And from what those close to the goings-on in the Chinese political ranks have said about him, Lifeng does not want to do business with India as of now.
'Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai' May Still be a Distant Dream
Foreign Minister Yi—lower down in the politburo pecking order as compared to Vice Premier Lifeng—was invited by the National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to visit India at a time when the US President Donald Trump has hit New Delhi with 50 percent tariffs. The impression this has left among many in India is that if the US dumps India, it can seek support from China.
This is a flawed and erroneous view.
Though the Chinese government, according to Foreign Minister Wang Yi, has promised to supply “fertilisers, rare earth materials, and tunnel boring technology” to India, nothing can be said with certainty about what will come of Yi’s trip. News reports on Tuesday reported that India and Pakistan have agreed that both armies will adopt a non-offensive posture on the border, and begin delimitation exercise for demarcation of final border.
China, despite all its seeming attempts to make friendly overtures, will be waiting to extract its pound of flesh from India. And China has a long list of things it wants from India.
It recognises that India has lost its leverage with the US, as the estrangement displayed by Trump toward PM Narendra Modi showed.
As stated above, China wants many things from India before the Indian wish-list ferried by the foreign minister to Beijing gets ratified. Worse, as Yi will return to Beijing via Islamabad, it remains to be seen whether the Pakistanis will whet this list and veto what is not in their interest.
China is expected to keep up the pressure on the border areas also, despite the 24th round of border talks taking place between Doval and Yi. Sources close to the developments claim China believes it can manipulate New Delhi and the army’s pressure is one such instrument.
What the Dragon Seeks
Firstly, China wants non-discriminatory ties with India. In other words it does not want India to discriminate with China when it comes to foreign direct investment, especially in technology. It believes that New Delhi has discriminated China from getting into its telecom or even the EV sector. While it bends over backwards to welcome Elon Musk’s Tesla, it is loath to allow similar access to the Chinese-owned BYD.
China wants the Indian government to grant similar treatment to it as the West.
After Yi's return to Beijing, he and others will play a key role in determining what can be offered to India and to what extent. After all, China’s attempts to win the 5G contract came to naught due to security issues, even after they had jumped through all the hoops that were needed to clear the deal. China is also expected to file Form 3 to explain the identity of its investors. This is irksome for the Chinese who believe that all these hurdles are created to keep them away from doing business without saying in so many words.
Secondly, the Indian government has decided to restore the grant of visas to Chinese from 24 July. The Chinese want all the restrictions on the grant of visas to go away, meaning India's security protocols would need to be further lowered.
India hasn’t really concealed its hostility towards China after the 2017 Doklam incursion and 2020 Galwan face-off . The Indain Army reportedly lost at least 20 soldiers in the Galwan scrap. The Indian PM never named China as an aggressor but the truth is the Chinese never forgave India’s retaliation, backed and in some cases designed by Western powers.
India displayed courage when it banned many of China's apps. This plan was conceived by an Australian conservative think tank which suggested hurting China in subtle ways rather than engaging in direct warfare.
The outcome was the banning of TikTok and scores of other Chinese apps. Interestingly, no Western powers banned TikTok - including the US. Similarly, China was kept at bay from investing in many sensitive sectors in India.
Sources, however, claim that Indian moves did not hurt China as much as India may have expected. In a way that has helped in bringing about normalcy at the border and in trade ties.
This is the reason both India and China have agreed to restore flights between the two countries, which seems to be a tall order. China is fully integrated with the ASEAN plus countries. Imagine there are 12 flights per day between Shanghai and Tokyo. Trade and business is booming between this bloc.
Between a Rock and Hard Spot
With recent geoppolitical circumstances pushing into the arms of China, India finds itself in a piquant situation. In the past few months, four Indian ministers have travelled to China to kiss and make up. This, after China had been accused by many, including an Army General, of providing real-time intelligence and equipment to Pakistan. In fact, the General claimed that India was also fighting against China and Turkey along with Pakistan.
So, what has really changed between India and China since then? Not much, except that the US has apparently dumped India, compelling it to weigh its options and finally give meaning to BRICS.
In the recent 17 BRICS Summit at Rio de Janeiro, India was derided by a Brazilian economist as an "outlier", a "Trojan horse" of the US. The suggestions were clear. India could not be trusted by BRICS members. With the U-turn in global geopolitics, India is the one unsure of how far it can go with China in blind faith.
Tough questions obviously loom: How will the US, already miffed with India's Russian connect, react to India cosying up to China?
Will Trump find greater justification for levying more tariffs on India because of it? Also, how will China treat India without the latter's American leverage? Will it consider India a respectable equal or deal with it as a supplicant? All difficult questions for PM Modi. Perhaps He (the Chinese one) will have the answer.
(Sanjay Kapoor is a veteran journalist and founder of Hardnews Magazine. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India and its neighbours, and West Asia. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)