India Can't Afford RSS Chief's Three-Child Baby Boom Plan

In a recent speech, Mohan Bhagwat, the chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), suggested that Indian women should have at least three children to strengthen the nation’s population. While his call might resonate with a certain political agenda, it overlooks a crucial set of economic and social realities that India must carefully deliberate upon and seek to address. The idea that more children will lead to greater national success is imprudent, myopic, and narrow-minded, let alone a socio-cultural product of seeing women objectively as ‘child bearers’ and ‘mothers’ rather than respecting their agency, reproductivity rights, and fertility preference. From an economic perspective, forcing larger families could place further strain on India’s already overburdened resources, hinder economic development, and infringe on women’s rights. RSS Mathura Meeting: Have the Daggers Been Withdrawn?India's population is not only large but increasingly young.As of now, about 67% of the population is between 15 and 64, with a median age of 28.4. By 2030, India’s working-age population will peak at 68.9%, providing a tremendous opportunity for economic growth. This “demographic dividend” — a higher proportion of working-age individuals to dependents — offers India a competitive edge in terms of productivity and consumption power. However, this demographic shift is not a reason to encourage larger families, as suggested. Quite the contrary, India’s population growth is already slowing down. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in India, which measures the average number of children born to women during their lifetimes, has declined from over 5.9 in 1951 to 2.0 in 2021. By encouraging larger families, we risk overstretching our resources without necessarily creating more economic opportunities.Does Mohan Bhagwat's Dussehra Speech Indicate a BJP-RSS 'Truce'?The cost of living in India is rising rapidly, particularly in urban areas. Housing, healthcare, education, and basic amenities have become increasingly expensive. In metropolitan cities, a decent standard of living requires significant financial resources. Having three children in such an environment would be an economic catastrophe in a country where earning ₹25,000 per month puts one in the richest 10% bracket, but somehow, they still struggle to afford daily basic amenities.The opportunity costs of having more children are also significant. Parents, especially women, often bear the brunt of childcare responsibilities, limiting their ability to work and contribute to the economy. Encouraging women to have more children could exacerbate gender inequality and their overall labour workforce participation rate (LWPR) which lingers at only 37%. In a world where economic growth is driven by human capital — skills, education, and innovation — this is a step backwards. One of the most glaring issues with Bhagwat’s argument is his disregard for the proven relationship between TFR and the Human Development Index (HDI). Across the globe, countries with lower fertility rates tend to have higher HDI scores, which means better outcomes in terms of education, healthcare, and living standards.In fact, nations with lower TFRs — such as Japan, Germany, and many Scandinavian countries — are wealthier, healthier, and more stable than those with high TFRs.As you can see from the graph above, there is a clear inverse relationship between TFR and HDI: as the TFR decreases, HDI tends to increase. This inverse correlation is evident across various states in India. States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra, with relatively low TFRs, exhibit higher HDI values. In contrast, in states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh, where the fertility rates are higher, we see lower HDI scores. This pattern suggests that a reduction in fertility rates, which typically corresponds to improved access to family planning services, healthcare, and education, leads to better outcomes in terms of economic prosperity, individual well-being, and social stability.A lower TFR also facilitates a more favourable dependency ratio, reducing the economic burden on the working-age population and improving per capita income. It allows for more targeted investment in social infrastructure such as healthcare, education, and housing, thereby promoting long-term human development. For instance, in Kerala, where the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is among the lowest in the country, the state enjoys impressive economic outcomes, high literacy rates, and life expectancy. Kerala's success can be attributed to its robust healthcare and education systems, which have thrived under a low population growth rate. By focusing on fewer children, the state has been able to direct more resources toward improving the quality of life for its citizens, leading to sustainable economic growth.Regarding Caste, the RSS is in an Awkward QuandaryIn contrast, states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, with high TFRs, face significant challenges such as widespread poverty, malnutrition, and limited access to healthcare and education. The larger number of children per family strains public resources, limits social mobility, and hinders economic progress. Smaller family sizes contribute significantly to long-term economic sustainability. With fewer dependents, families can invest more in education, healthcare, and skill development—key factors that drive individual productivity. Tamil Nadu is another prime example of this: the state’s relatively low fertility rate has enabled it to achieve better human development outcomes, including higher literacy rates, life expectancy, and economic growth.Encouraging larger families in these regions would likely reverse the progress made in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, leading to greater poverty, overstretched infrastructure, and reduced quality of life.The focus, therefore, should be on improving living standards through investment in education, healthcare, and job creation, while empowering women through family planning programs. This approach offers a sustainable path forward, ensuring that growth is both economically and environmentally viable, rather than merely inflating population numbers. Mohan Bhagwat's Speech Confirms That RSS' 'Open Licence' to Modi is Under ReviewSuggestions rooted in outdated medieval perspectives on family planning to encourage people to have larger families overlook a crucial issue: while India’s population growth rate is slowing, the total number of people continues to rise at an unsustainable pace. In 2023, India became the world’s most populous country, with over 1.43 billion people, and that number keeps rising. This rapid increase is only adding to the strain on our already overburdened resources. Take energy, for example. India’s demand for energy has been growing at a staggering 5.4% per year from 2014 to 2023. However, energy production hasn’t kept pace. Despite efforts to shift to cleaner energy, we still rely heavily on coal, which contributes to our rising CO2 emissions. The situation isn’t much better when it comes to water. Nearly 600 million people in India are already facing severe water stress, and projections suggest a 50% water deficit by 2030. This crisis is worsened by the depletion of groundwater and the increasing frequency of droughts, making access to water—especially in cities—an even bigger challenge.Rapid population growth doesn’t just strain natural resources, but it also tests governance. Urban centres like Delhi and Mumbai, already grappling with overcrowding, will also face greater challenges in housing, transportation, and public health and if population growth goes unchecked this will be a nationwide norm.RSS and Civil Servants: In Governance, Unlike Politics, Neutrality MattersEncouraging larger families in this scenario would only add fuel to the fire, creating even more pressure on resources that are already stretched to their limits. The focus should be on finding ways to manage population growth sustainably, investing in smarter technologies, and developing innovative solutions that ensure we can provide for future generations without compromising their quality of life. Mohan Bhagwat’s call, therefore, for having more children, is not only indifferent to the rights and agency of women but also apathetically overlooks key economic, social, and moral implications of pushing for such a measure. With India’s population growth slowing for good, the nation is on the verge of reaping the benefits of a young, growing workforce.The instrumentality and substance of development as a realised process isn’t about achieving numbers on growth rate; it’s about creating opportunities, improving the quality of life, and empowering individuals of the existing population to contribute meaningfully (and productively) to society.India’s development story, marred by higher undernutrition, inequality and informality, doesn’t need a population boom; it needs a state-led re-imagination of developmental realisation. (Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, Office of Inter-Disciplinary Studies, and Director of Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES), OP Jindal Global University. He is a Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics, and a 2024 Fall Academic Visitor to the Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, University of Oxford. Ankur Singh is a Research Assistant with the Centre for New Economics Studies, OP Jindal Global University and a team member of its InfoSphere initiative. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)When Rahul Gandhi Takes on BJP-RSS, He Does So as a Principled Hindu

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India Can't Afford RSS Chief's Three-Child Baby Boom Plan

The idea that more children will lead to greater national success is imprudent, myopic, and narrow-minded.

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Topics: Population