New Delhi and Ottawa came to a crescendo for much of 2024, after diplomatic ties went into a tailspin. The political brouhaha and fallout resulted from the time when former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of aiding and abetting an assassination on Canadian soil of a Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar, whom New Delhi accuses of being a Khalistani separatist and part of the Sikhs for Justice group - the Khalistan secessionist-organisation.
I wrote about that incident in one of my previous articles in The Quint, stating why Canada missed the forest for the trees, going back to poor diplomatic decisions under Monsieur Trudeau Sr.
Cut to Canada in 2025: same country, but new scene.
The leaders of the Group of Seven or G7 countries in the United States, Canada, Italy, France, the United Kingdom (UK), the European Union (EU), Japan and Germany have descended onto Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rockies.
The geographic view may be idyllic but the viewpoints on geography and geopolitical views are far from tranquil.
Trump Sans Trudeau
This time there is no Justin Trudeau, who decided to step down, having lost the ground with his own party as a mounting political crisis, and a liberal immigration system meant a saturated job market, and an inflationary crisis that only signalled the exit and a bleak end to the Trudeau legacy.
The Liberal Party which had won three successive elections under Trudeau’s leadership, made way for Mark Carney. The new Prime Minister, playing host, welcomed his G7 counterparts and said they are at a "turning point in history" as the “world is looking at them for leadership.”
It’s a first for Carney as a G7 world leader and a “sort of a first” too for President Donald Trump, who returns to the G7 stage for the first time in his second term in the Oval Office.
President Trump is an aberration for many reasons, but one distinct reason on this G7 visit was that he is perhaps the only American President to bat for Russia, the old nemesis. Trump remarked that expelling Russian President Vladimir Putin from the group in 2014 was a mistake. The one obvious absentee, in Russia, is the reason the elite forum has been downgraded from G8 to G7.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. A decade ago, Russia was jettisoned from the forum for its invasion of Crimea in Eastern Ukraine. Now too, Russia remains in the eye of the storm for its brazen invasion of Ukraine, as the war ravages well into its third year.
And if that’s not all, President Trump even remarked that he was open to China joining the G7, America’s newest geopolitical adversary of the last two decades.
In a lot of ways, the G7 is an anachronism. Founded back in 1975, when France hosted the first meeting, the informal organisation included the world's seven wealthiest democracies.
The world has changed much since then. For one, the Cold War ended, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the European Union came into force, with the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, and then the United States saw its new unipolar hegemon of the 1990s changed into a Manichean duopoly the very next decade, with a rising civilisation empire in China, that in its rapid ascent to the top of the economic pantheon would displace the United States from the totem-pole.
Also, the rise of India, now a $4 trillion economy, the most populous nation, and having overtaken the United Kingdom, France, and Japan to become the fourth largest economy.
President Trump may speak of Russia or China, but India, a common visitor at the G7, is now a G4 economy, one that’s a market and a geopolitical force of its own making, an Indo-Pacific power, and a priority for Washington.
India and G-7 Geopolitics
Carney’s invite to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which saw some pushback from members of the separatist Canadian Sikh diaspora, nevertheless signals a positive step to resetting ties. The Canadian Prime Minister waxed anodyne homilies on why India being invited, despite not being a formal member was important to the G7 Leaders' meeting, given New Delhi’s economic standing on the world stage.
After the multi-party Parliamentary delegation completed their visit of countries in the Western Hemisphere, particularly the United States, Modi too would have the issue of cross-border terrorism on top of his agenda and the public rebuke stored for Islamabad and Rawalpindi’s tacit support for these nefarious groups that have received patronage and protection on Pakistani soil.
One aspect that could yield in New Delhi’s favour and crucial to mending ties, is the intelligence-sharing deal, which is expected to be announced during the G7 summit.
Under this agreement, law enforcements in both countries will increase cooperation on transnational crime, terrorism and extremist activities, something New Delhi will be keen to share with Ottawa, given gang involvement and Khalistani separatists that do get patronage from Canadian soil.
Ottawa too will have its vested interests and want to push for investigations into extrajudicial killings.
Canada is not Pakistan, far from it, but it does seem to have irked New Delhi’s umbrage in a similar manner. For instance, the diplomatic brouhaha saw New Delhi stop issuing visas in either of its Canadian consulates and the High Commission. This soon after Ottawa expelled six leading Indian diplomats, including the High Commissioner, Sanjay Verma.
Diplomatic riposte meant that New Delhi, too, ordered the immediate departure of six of Canada’s own diplomats, including the acting high commissioner.
Things are looking up, nontheless, with the two nations have deciding to restore their High Commissioners to each other’s capitals, following bilateral meetings on the sidelines of G7. Modi also tweeted about the "excellent meeting" he had with Carney, and said he was looking forward to working closely to add momentum to the India-Canada friendship.
A World at War
Meanwhile, at the G7, while there is no Russia, there is certainly talk of Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine.
While Putin works towards his own contorted views of “liberation”, President Trump announced “Liberation Day” on 2 April, this year, with a slew of tariffs on allies, trading partners and adversaries.
As several world leaders work with President Trump on a trade agreement both amenable to the current Washington establishment since the commander-in-chief remarked that he was a “tariff guy” and that a deal between the US and Canada was on the cards. Meanwhile, Washington inked a deal with one of its oldest allies—London—as Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer finalised a trade agreement. The deal with the United Kingdom was announced earlier in May, and both sides agreed to slash tariffs on goods across both borders.
Diplomatic Rapprochement
The air of the Canadian Rockies may be pristine and bucolic, but it was marred with war clouds that hung over the summit like the Sword of Damocles.
The ongoing Middle East conflagration between Israel and Iran dominated discourse among the leaders and forced President Trump to cut short his summit and head back to Washington DC.
There was no pull-aside meeting between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi or with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, whom the POTUS had been slated to meet the following day. Carney is playing gracious host and will likely have amiable conversations with Modi. Perhaps both New Delhi and Ottawa will work towards further diplomatic rapprochement.
Diplomacy works in its own small ways, unlikely to have any grand gestures.
Relations are far from reset, but it’s a step in the right direction, as the Canadian Rockies know best what temporary thawing looks like, especially when a frosty winter could just be around the corner.
(Akshobh Giridharadas is based out of Washington DC and writes on diverse topics such as geopolitics, business, tech and sports. He is a two-time TEDx and Toastmasters public speaker and a graduate of the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy. He tweets @Akshobh. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)