It would be apt to appropriate Mark Twain’s quip, “Giving up smoking is the easiest thing in the world. I know because I've done it thousands of times” for the current state of Indo-Canadian ties.
Indeed, Ottawa’s addiction to spasmodic 'anti-India' spells has recurrently buffeted potentially lucrative and mutually beneficial bilateral ties over the past half a century.
It began in the 1970s with baseless accusations of the use of its fissile material in Pokhran-1 and the sudden stoppage of its CANDU nuclear power programme with us. Then came the bombing of Air India flight AI-185 in 1985 which its commission of inquiry report in June 2010 blamed on a "cascading series of errors" by the Government of Canada, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, and the Canadian Security Intelligence Service which allowed the terrorist attack to take place.
Regardless, Ottawa has continued with its substance abuse by defending the “freedom of expression” of the “Khalistanis” who openly advertise for the assassination of Indian diplomats, hold referendums, and vandalise India’s establishments.
Can Canada Afford To Alienate India?
Finally, last week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dragged India into the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a self-confessed Khalistan sympathiser and proclaimed terrorist without offering any shred of evidence.
India has reacted sharply to such accusations calling them "absurd and motivated.” The two countries have expelled each other’s senior diplomats and the bilateral talks for a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement have been postponed. There has also been some other adverse fallout such as suspension of visa services, etc.
From the aforementioned, it is quite evident that Canada has consistently shown signs of withdrawal syndrome to India’s rise. At the same time, reassuringly enough, these fitful acts of commission and omission by Ottawa have failed to dent either India’s ascendence or the growing substance in the bilateral ties.
Bilateral trade has remained buoyant reaching USD 8 billion in 2022. Canadian entities have so far invested USD 3.6 billion in FDI and over USD 25 billion in FII in India.
More than 600 Canadian companies, including Bombardier and SNC Lavalin, have a presence in India, while more than 30 Indian companies, such as Infotech majors TCS, Infosys, and Wipro have invested billions of dollars in Canada and created thousands of jobs.
Since 2018, India has been the largest source country for international students in Canada. In 2022, their number rose 47% to nearly 320000, accounting for about 40% of total overseas students.
Canadian universities cross-subsidise their domestic students from earning billions of dollars from the tuition fees paid by Indian students.
India Not The Only Country At The Receiving End Of Canadian Hostility
At a different level, it is also relevant to note that India is not the only country Canada has antagonised during the past few decades: It has had well-known spats with France over Quebec, with China over Huawei, with Saudi Arabia over the war in Yemen, with Russia over espionage charges and Iran over shooting down of a Ukrainian jet over Tehran in 2020.
Even with the US, its only neighbour, Canada’s ties are dogged by the perceived big brotherly attitude of Washington and punctuated by rolling differences over issues such as NAFTA, Cuba, missile defence, and Keystone oil pipeline, etc.
Relevant to note that to resolve most such disputes, Canada had to eventually gave in more than it took back.
Against this backdrop, we need to understand the Canadian mindset and react accordingly. Firstly, as is already well known, the current PM Justin Trudeau heads a minority party and is dependent support of the New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh – a pro-Khalistan Sikh politician, to stay in power.
This political compulsion compels him to put Nelson’s eye on the Sikh separatists’ shenanigans under the pretext of commitment to freedom of expression.
Secondly, over 770,000 Sikhs live in Canada, comprising over 2% of the local population, the largest share of any country’s population, including India. They have had an early bird advantage, having begun arriving in Canada in 1897 to settle down and acquire landed properties in important provinces of Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta.
Since the 1980s, many of these have become Khalistan sympathisers, some of them even becoming activists for "the cause.” Ease of migration and the ready availability of "freedom of expression” made a heady cocktail of wealth and impunity to espouse Khalistani Agenda and “work” for its realisation.
Thirdly, having been dwarfed by the superpower in the south and historically dominated by the UK across the Atlantic, the Canadian political establishment is constantly searching for 'worthy causes' to champion to boost its self-esteem, as long as these pursuits do not affect the other two influencers. Pro-Khalistani elements have successfully hitched their wagon to this urge, painting India as the villain and creating a political addiction. Hitherto, the demonising India had no cost to the Khalistanis and their pretentious, but misguided sympathisers.
Fourthly, it’s not that the Sikhs of Canada are united against India and demanding Khalistan. The community is riven with its own internal ethnic and turf rivalries, that often spill into violence.
How Must India Navigate the Canadian Challenge?
How should India handle this odious, semi-serious challenge to her sovereignty and territorial integrity from halfway across the globe? A multi-pronged approach is needed.
Firstly, we need to stay calm and project the image of a strong country capable of handling such a foolhardy fissiparous campaign. Secondly, we must engage the Canadian establishment confidently and proportionately.
Thirdly, we should encourage patriotic elements in Punjab as well as among the diaspora in Canada, the majority of whom are non-Khalistanis, to assert themselves. Fourthly, we need to suitably engage non-Khalistani Sikhs in Canada to show that the separatists have not hijacked the entire community.
Fifthly, there are fairly big stakeholders in Canada’s booming economic ties with India, from FII investors to Canadian Universities. A range of economic Canadian stakeholders from Bombardier aircraft makers to energy and metallurgy majors are salivating in anticipation of India’s growing demand.
On our side, we need to marshal our assets, such as Bollywood and IT majors to give a short shift to Canada till it ceases supporting the Khalistanis.
Last but not the least, India can be faulted for making insufficient efforts to push our narrative across to the Canadian establishment. We do have powerful and sane arguments against the brutish Khalistani thugs. These need to be conveyed to the Canadian media and the political elite.
This way, the putative "freedom of expression” can be turned around to expose their gullibility, mendacity, and hypocrisy. If necessary, some lobbyists can be engaged for this purpose.
To conclude, as long as we hold our nerve and do not overreact, the current imbroglio in Indo-Canadian ties will pass without causing any permanent damage to our interests. This way, we would avoid the trap set by the Canada-based Khalistanis. Indeed, nothing would please them more than a nose dive in Canada’s ties with India. As Pierre Trudeau, father of the current Prime Minister, once said "Canada is not a country for the cold of heart or the cold of feet.” It’s the time we showed them that neither are we.
(The author was an Indian Ambassador to Algeria, Norway and Nigeria. He is currently the President of Eco-Diplomacy & Strategies, a Delhi-based consultancy. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)