Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the imminent release of the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) manifesto is expected to focus on 'GYAN' – an acronym consisting of four segments:
Garib (poor)
Yuva (youth)
Annadata (farmers)
Nari (women empowerment)
But how well has the incumbent government performed with respect to these four categories in the last ten years?
On Poverty
NITI Aayog’s latest discussion paper claims that 24.82 crore people escaped multidimensional poverty in the last nine years. The poverty headcount ratio plummeted from 29.17 per cent in 2013-14 to 11.28 per cent in 2022-23, showing a faster decline compared to previous years.
However, some economists argue that the report overlooks the Covid-induced rise in poverty while others note the absence of data on the population below the consumption poverty line (the traditional method of estimating poverty globally).
Despite these strides, stagnant real wages over six years have implications for consumption demands, seemingly incongruent with declining poverty levels.
According to the World Bank, the poverty rate and the proportion of the population living below the international poverty line of $2.15 per day (2017 PPP) exhibited a gradual decline until 2018. Subsequently, there was an uptick, peaking in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by another decline in 2021.
Nevertheless, it is concerning to observe that when India's poverty rates are contrasted with those of neighbouring countries in the region, such as Bangladesh and Pakistan, India's performance lags behind significantly.
Youth Unemployment
Approximately 83 per cent of the unemployed workforce in India comprises of young individuals, according to the findings of the India Employment Report 2024 jointly released by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute of Human Development (IHD).
Notably, the proportion of young people with secondary or higher education among the total unemployed youth has nearly doubled, rising from 35.2 per cent in 2000 to 65.7 per cent in 2022.
While the years leading up to the pandemic witnessed an increase in youth employment and underemployment, the onset of the pandemic saw a decline in these figures. Furthermore, the report highlights that nearly 90 percent of workers are engaged in informal work, indicating a significant reliance on precarious employment.
The share of regular employment, which had been steadily increasing since 2000, started to decline after 2018.
The report underscores the prevalence of widespread livelihood insecurities among the youth, with only a small percentage benefiting from social protection measures, particularly in the non-agricultural, organised sector. These findings emphasise the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address the employment crisis faced by India's youth.
On Farmers
While focusing on farmers, the government initiated several schemes aimed at enhancing the well-being of farmers by ensuring financial stability, fostering skill development, facilitating market access, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices. Noteworthy among these initiatives is the Prime Minister Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), launched in 2016, which stands as the third-largest insurance scheme globally in terms of premium. It aims at shielding farmers from crop loss or damage arising out of unforeseen events.
In past eight years of its implementation, 56.80 crore farmer applications have been enrolled and over 23.22 crore farmer applicants received claims. During this period, nearly Rs 31,139 crores were paid by farmers as their share of premium against which claims of over Rs. 1,55,977 crores have been paid to them.
However, we notice that although the total applications by farmers have steadily increased over the years from 581.7 lakh in 2016-17 to 832.8 lakh in 2021-22, the total claim paid by government saw a decline. The total claim paid in 2016-17 was 16795.5 crores which saw a rise to 28651.8 crores in 2018-19 but the claim paid in 2021 22 was only 14716.9 crores, which is even lower than the initial claim in 2016-17.
A similar trend is noticed in the cases of the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) and Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), where there is a gradual decline in the number of beneficiaries, and the budget being allotted and utilised since its inception. MGNREGS saw a demand for jobs under the scheme consistently outpacing the actual number of jobs being provided.
There has been a 41 per cent increase in the demand for jobs, while the number of jobs provided increased by 38 per cent. A 3 per cent difference can appear to be insignificant, but when viewed with respect to the entire population, it becomes substantial.
On Women Empowerment
India's Female Labor Force Participation Rate (FLFPR) has persistently remained dismally low for several decades, a trend that has worsened over the last nine years.
According to World Bank data, the reported LFPR stood at 27 per cent in 2012, but by 2021, it had plummeted to 22.9 per cent. This downward trajectory is concerning, reflecting the challenges faced by women in accessing and participating in the workforce.
Despite this decline, there is a glimmer of hope — in 2022, the FLFPR experienced a slight increase to 23.9 per cent, and in 2023 to 34.1 per cent as per the Periodic Labour Force Survey.
The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) recently released its annual crime report, which sheds light on the grim reality of women's safety in India. The data revealed a staggering 4,45,256 cases of crimes against women in 2022, equivalent to approximately 51 FIRs lodged every hour. This represents a significant increase from the figures reported in 2021, which recorded 4,28,278 cases, and in 2020, which documented 3,71,503 cases.
Furthermore, the NCRB's findings unveiled a crime rate of 66.4 per lakh population, underscoring the alarming prevalence of gender-based violence across the country.
(Deepanshu Mohan is Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, Office of InterDisciplinary Studies, and Director, Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES), O.P. Jindal Global University. He is a Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics, and a 2024 Fall Academic Visitor to Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, University of Oxford.Aditi Desai is a Senior Research Analyst with CNES and a Team Lead of its Infosphere Team, This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses, nor is responsible for them.)
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