MAGA or TACO, Trump's Volatility is Not Good News for India

In his bid to Make America Great Again) (MAGA) US President Donald Trump has become TACO, which stands for 'Trump Always Chickens Out.'

The unflattering new moniker seems to have stuck with Trump, who has been making a name for himself with his empty tariff threats since he came to power the second time.

The 'Liberation Day' announcements tanked the stock market globally. When the POTUS failed to take his threats to their (il)logical conclusion, it spawned memes and pejoratives. And in many ways, it has been good for the world that Donald Trump "Always Chickens Out".

But TACO may not be Trump’s go-to meal for long. Instead, he is adding a pinch of unpredictability to the lives of those countries that had been breathing easy after they were threatened with whopping tariffs earlier in April this year, as his statements against BRICS show.

Trump, India, and BRICS

Countries like India have watched with trepidation as to how the tariff threat plays out after Trump unveiled the stick he will use against eleven other member countries of the BRICS grouping.

Trump has perceived BRICS with unconcealed hostility. He believes that BRICS has been created to end the global hegemony of the US and that he must try and stop it all costs. Earlier in February 2025, when the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Trump in the Oval Office, he had got a sense of what his host thought of BRICS and its avowed policy of de-dollarisation.

Trump had made angry noises then too, but Modi continued to keep his counsel and did not reveal in which direction he was going. Though India has opposed the idea of de-dollarisation, the host of the last BRICS summit, President Lula of Brazil, did not pull punches. He made it amply clear that BRICS was against the hegemony of US and the inordinate influence that the US dollar exercises on the world economy.

Though the Chinese and Russian Presidents did not show up to the Rio Summit due to different reasons—Russian President Vladimir Putin due to the ICC warrant against him for atrocities in Ukraine, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, because of his alleged displeasure at Modi being declared the chief guest of the Summit—their impression was very much there. As expected, Modi spoke not about the global challenges that stare at the BRICS nations, but about the need to fight terror.

It was a moment of triumph for Indian officials when the joint statement acknowledged the Pahalgam terror attack.

The US did not mind that. This prompted some Brazilian economists to question India’s credentials. They labelled India an outlier and a Trojan horse that was hurting the BRICS. This damning charge did not faze Modi, even as India prepares to host of the next BRICS summit. 

India is not on an easy wicket. Life for those who walk the narrow middle path is usually not easy. PM Modi and India have to be cognisant of what can go wrong for them even at the hands of a TACO, who not long ago was dubbed “my friend” by the PM. Trump has been erratic and has said in so many words that he will use a bunker buster to open the Indian economy.

This threat is largely towards the agricultural sector where 65 percent of the rural population resides, and the people live off the produce of agriculture. US has been keen on India opening its agricultural sector so that it can push genetically modified (GM) food and other produce.

New Delhi had an interested visitor recently, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon.

With plans to source $10 billion annually from India by 2027, the honcho reportedly met with the Indian top brass, including the PM, presumably with an eye on carving out a larger piece of the agricultural goods sales pie in India for Walmart.

The suggestion is that the big fat cats of the agriculture sector like Walmart and Cargill Foods are eyeing this important component of the Indian economy and pushing Trump to hasten the process.

Eye on the Dragon

India has refused to relent to American pressure till now. But New Delhi cannot afford to antagonise the US when it has a hostile neighbour in the form of China.

If the Indian government is desperate to make up with the Chinese as well as preserve its presence in BRICS despite its manifest reservations with US, there are obvious reasons for that.

Lately, more Indian officials have visited Beijing, but as learnt by the author, not much headway has been made. This may be as some in foreign policy observing circles are of the belief that China and US work in tandem.

Though this is considered to be a preposterous formulation, the manner in which the US’ TACO policy has evolved makes it clear that there is a method to this madness, a pattern in this warped partnership.

This moniker, TACO, emerged after Trump threatened 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods coming to the US. Though the US threatened higher tariffs if Beijing retaliated against it, China, an 18.5 trillion-dollar global power, did not back off.

Quietly, the US backtracked, allowing a columnist from The Financial Times to call Trump a chicken. Since then, the stock markets may appear to not be taking the US very seriously, but looking at it that way would be committing a folly here. Very cleverly, the US President has slapped tariffs on those countries manufacturing goods whose stock prices had grown during this period of normalcy. He has come to the conclusion that the US can safely impose a 25 percent tariff without destabilising the world economy. He has been happy that the US economy has made more from customs duties than ever before.

But his ever-growing uncertainty and unpredictability are causing disquiet in countries like India. Stray voices suggest that Trump is unhappy with India.

It is alleged that Trump no longer trusts New Delhi and Modi as he believes that his Presidential opponent, Kamala Harris, got support from India.

The credibility of such reports is hard to establish. Besides India's BRICS membership and the fact that India will host the next Summit, there are no foreseeable reasons to belive in such whispers. But they provide some indications of all not being well between the two countries.

India will get to know whether there is any merit in these allegations once the tariff is declared. It would have to see if the agriculture sector manages to stave off the US challenge. If agriculture crumbles and tariffs are low, the government may well expect turbulence in rural areas of the Indian hinterland while Trump enjoys his taco.

(Sanjay Kapoor is a veteran journalist and founder of Hardnews Magazine. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India and its neighbours, and West Asia. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)