The US assumed G20 Presidency on 1 December, 2025 in the most unusual manner.
The US had boycotted most of G20 2025 meetings under South African Presidency, including the Leaders’ Summit. As the US President — or for that matter no other senior US official — was present, the South African President refused to hand-over the G20 baton to the US embassy persons during the Leaders’ Summit.
The US issued a media note on 1 December 2025, claiming to have assumed G20 Presidency for 2026. The statement further declared that the US, under the leadership of President Trump, will focus the group on its ‘core mission of driving economic growth and prosperity’ with ‘three core themes:
Unleashing economic prosperity by limiting regulatory burdens
Unlocking affordable and secure energy supply chains
Pioneering new technologies and innovations.
It also announced that the G20 Leaders’ Summit would be held in Miami, Florida, during the 250th anniversary celebrations of the United States. Not much has happened since. Strangely, the G20 US Presidency website is blank with a cryptic message “G20 MIAMI 2026: THE BEST IS YET TO COME” and a photograph of a wowing Trump.
Is G20 dead? Will it survive US Presidency? Will it break?
Trump’s Personal Fiefdom
The G20 evolved a system of Troika — comprising the outgoing, current and incoming presidencies — to manage its agenda, working groups and meetings, while allowing space for the host country’s priorities, G20 working groups, and its meetings. Trump has broken that system. There is no Troika now as Trump decided not to invite South Africa to any event during US Presidency. The incoming UK Presidency UK does not seem to be in consulting loop as well.
The G20 has become a personal fiefdom of President Trump, at least for 2026.
Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, in a statement on 3 December 2025, announced the replacement of South Africa by Poland as G20 member. The statement claimed, “Poland — now ranked among the world’s 20 largest economies — will be joining us to assume its rightful place in the G20.” The US presidency has no authority to expel a member or admit a new one, yet this announcement was made unilaterally.
There has been no open criticism of Trump’s decision. Backroom diplomacy, however, seem to be working. Russia’s G20 Sherpa Svetlana Lukash, strangely, stated on 27 December: “The US reaffirmed that Poland would not replace South Africa, and that this was simply US President Donald Trump’s decision to involve Poland in the work of the G20”.
No US spokesperson has spoken on the issue. Back-channel diplomacy, however, appears to be at work. In a media note issued by the ‘Office of Spokesperson’ after G20 Sherpas’ meeting on 15-16 December 2025, it was noted that the meeting was attended by Poland as ‘only full guest participant of the US host year’.
Poland cannot join the G20 as a member unless G20 leaders together decide to admit it as such. There is no question of G20 leaders agreeing to exclude South Africa. Trump’s decisions will, nonetheless, keep rocking G20 meetings throughout 2026.
As announced in Rubio statement, the G20 Sherpas' meeting did take place on 15-16 December. What transpired remains unclear, as no official communiqué was issued. The media note merely stated that the US had “launched working groups to develop concrete deliverables” for its three themes, along with an additional working group to identify areas of consensus on trade.
Taking all three media notes together, it is quite obvious that US G20 presidency will have limited engagement in only four working groups, whereas earlier G20s had tens of working groups, partnership events, and hundreds of meetings. Most contentious is the choice of four working group themes, reflecting hobby horses of President Trump: regulatory unravelling, fossil fuels, cryptocurrencies, and tariffs.
There cannot really be a more divisive and contentious agenda before G20 than this. There is thus no likelihood that there would be any serious deliberations and any consensus will emerge. Trump will, however, have a big opportunity to harangue G20 members.
Will G20 Survive 2026?
The G20 was born out of the 2008 global financial crisis, which originated in the United States and compelled Washington to seek cooperation with other major economies to stabilise the global system.
There was business-like cooperation in first three years, with the G20 leadership notching quite a few notable successes.
Once global financial crisis blew over, the G20 became an international bureaucratic machine and descended into a talk-shop. American attempts to cut-down China and later the Russian-Ukraine war accentuated differences, jeopardising issue of formal joint communiques sometimes.
The G20 has been limping along for last few years and is difficult to identify even one big single achievement of it in last five years.
So, what now?
In a way, President Trump’s decision to junk previous G20 baggage provides an opportunity for a complete new rethink. The G20 is likely to take any of three probable courses in 2026:
G20 members could lodge formal protests and record disagreements while waiting out the US presidency. In this scenario, 2026 would be a lost year, with the UK presidency in 2027 left to decide the forum’s future.
The G20 membership, led by China and the BRICS group, could confront Trump on all four issues that he has picked up and ensure that Trump is not able to have his way at all. If it goes that way, he will most likely announce disbanding of G20 or withdrawing US from it.
China and several other members could exit the G20 altogether, expand BRICS by admitting additional countries, and position it as an alternative to a hollowed-out G20.
It is difficult to say what will happen to the G20 in 2026. However, it is quite certain that the G20 in 2027 will be quite unrecognisable from its past.
Options Before India
India, despite its claim of being the fourth largest economy (untrue as of 2025) and a rising superpower, does not exercise any big influence in the G20. India is, therefore, unlikely to assume any leadership role during 2026 to drive G20 agenda and future options. China is most likely to play that role.
Despite claims of being the world’s fourth-largest economy, which is untrue as of 2025, India wields limited influence within the G20. India is, therefore, unlikely to assume any leadership role during 2026 to drive G20 agenda and future options. That role will almost certainly fall to China.
India will, however, have to take a stand.
While the BRICS option appears to be the least troublesome in present circumstances, it is not entirely aligned with India’s long-term strategic interests. The second scenario — open confrontation with the US — will be quite painful, and India’s current leadership does not have stomach for it.
In these circumstances, the first option — waiting out the US presidency —seems to be the least harmful and most consistent with India’s long-term interests.
(Subhash Chandra Garg is the Chief Policy Advisor, SUBHANJALI, and Former Finance and Economic Affairs Secretary, Government of India. He's the author of many books, including 'The $10 Trillion Dream Dented, 'We Also Make Policy', and 'Explanation and Commentary on Budget 2025-26'. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)