Five Reasons Why Bihar’s Secular Front Should Feel Jittery

Now that the NDA has firmed up its seat-sharing pact in Bihar, the move would put the rival secular front in a tizzy.

Shot in the Arm for NDA

• Ruling party in Bihar must be feeling restive after BJP President Amit Shah stitched quite a formidable alliance
• Shah has assiduously sewn a tie-up which will have nearly 60% of the Bihar electorate within its fold
• Mulayam’s exit has given a psychological jolt to the grand alliance comprising JD(U), RJD and Congress
• Left parties saying no to Nitish’s offer to join his group also gives an edge to the BJP-led NDA

A day before, the Janata Dal United sarcastically termed the NDA as a National Divided Alliance. Today, the same ruling party in Bihar must be feeling restive after the BJP president Amit Shah stitched quite a formidable alliance by reaching a perfect seat-sharing arrangement among all the NDA partners.

As per the pact, the BJP will contest 160 seats, while Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP 40, Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP 23 and Manjhi’s new-born outfit HAM the remaining 20 seats.

After initial bickering and tough bargaining by the allies, the NDA appears to have got an edge over its rival – Nitish Kumar-led grand alliance. The reasons are one too many.

Firstly, Shah has assiduously sewn a tie-up which will have nearly 60% of the Bihar electorate within its fold. With Manjhi, Paswan and Kushwaha eventually agreeing to remain firmly in the saffron camp, the BJP-led NDA could easily bank upon the Mahadalits (13%), Dalits (6%), EBCs (33%) and the upper castes (nearly 13%).

Together, this potent combination amounts to 65%. But poll arithmetic depends on electoral chemistry and, therefore, there is a strong probability of the EBC and Mahadalit vote splitting as a section of this oppressed class may throw their weight behind Lalu and Nitish, who have given them a voice in the name of social justice.

Notwithstanding, this permutation and combination, the BJP has another reason to cheer. Though it could not drive a wedge between Lalu and Nitish, it has been successful in driving away Mulayam Singh Yadav from the yet-to-be-born Janata Parivar. Though rumour mills are agog with numerous theories of Mulayam’s exit, it’s equally true that the move has given psychological jolt to the grand alliance comprising JD(U), RJD and Congress.

Mulayam may not have much of a base in this part of the cow-belt, but his efforts to tie-up with Sharad Pawar’s NCP and project Pawar’s protégé Tariq Anwar (a former Congressman who was Youth Congress chief at one point of time and also political secretary to the then Congress president Sitaram Kesri in 1997-98), as the chief ministerial candidate will surely dent into the Muslim vote-bank, particularly in the Seemanchal area in north-eastern Bihar.

If Madhepura strongman and Lok Sabha MP from there, Pappu Yadav too joins the SP-NCP alliance, then this could spell further trouble for the grand alliance which is banking heavily on resurrection of MY (Muslim-Yadav) votes, much like the 1995 Assembly polls.

Political grapevine is abuzz with theories that BJP is behind the sudden resurgence of marginal forces, but as Tariq Anwar rightly puts it: “In a democracy, everyone has the right to field its nominee and widen the party base.”

Thirdly, the BJP-led NDA will have to thank its stars after the Left parties spurned Nitish’s offer to join his group and decided that the CPM, CPI and the CPI(ML) will form a Left bloc and fight unitedly against the BJP and the Congress’ alliance.

Fourthly, another cause of worry for Nitish should be All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) leader Asaduddin Owaisi’s decision to test the ‘political’ waters in Bihar. Owaisi, who was successful in last year’s Maharashtra Assembly election, could easily spoil Nitish’s party if in case he decides to field his candidates in Muslim-dominated five districts in Seemanchal belt. These districts, including Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia, Katihar and Bhagalpur, account for nearly 35 constituencies, and have a sizeable Muslim population varying from 40% to 70%.

Fifth, and most importantly, it’s Lalu Prasad’s refusal to share the dais with Rahul Gandhi which could bring more respite for the NDA leaders, who earlier left no stone unturned to create differences between Nitish and Lalu. However, Nitish who feels obliged by Rahul for having played a key role in making him the chief ministerial candidate (when Lalu and Mulayam had some initial reservation on the issue), has given his consent to attend Rahul’s rally in West Champaran.

But if in case, Lalu remains adamant (and sends his son instead Tejaswi) to attend the Champaran rally, it would send a wrong message to the various constituencies the grand alliance is banking upon. After all, his conviction notwithstanding, Lalu remains one leader in Bihar who single-handedly commands one-fifth of total votes. And this was proved in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections when, despite him serving a jail term in the fodder scam, the RJD polled more than 20% votes.

But then, neither Rahul was ever comfortable with Lalu nor has the RJD chief ever shown his affinity towards the Congress heir apparent. But this ego clash between the two leaders could upset Nitish’s applecart. Little wonder, Congress mandarins are reportedly working overtime, through one of his samdhi (his daughter’s father-in-law), for the much-needed truce, which, as of now, appears to be an uphill task.

All these developments could, however, put the BJP-led NDA on cloud nine.

(The writer is a Bihar-based journalist)