The H1B visa – the golden ticket that lets foreigners earn in the USA – is under attack from the MAGA right. It is clear that in spite of Donald Trump’s support for the H1B visa system, the logic of populist politics will force him to cut back on it. Even the world’s most powerful plutocrat, Elon Musk, who had initially promised to go to war for H1B visas has been forced to backtrack. He now admits that the H1B visa system is “broken” and in need of “major reforms.”
This is bad news not just for Indians who hope to get H1B visas someday, but also for every white-collar corporate worker at home. To understand why, we need to look at three interrelated things: First, the H1B visa system itself. Second, the importance of H1B visas for IT jobs and salaries. And finally, the effect of IT jobs on white-collar employment across the board.
Let’s begin with what has happened with H1B visas in the past five years. Over 2.8 million H1B visa applications were ‘certified’ by US authorities. (Not every certified application results in a visa; about 20-30 percent are rejected.) Out of these 2.8 million certified applications, over 70 percent were for IT-related roles, and another 7 percent were for finance and accounting positions.
You might think that most of these are jobs being offered by big tech companies like Google, Apple, Microsoft, or Meta. Yes, Google is a big player here, but the majority of H1B applicants for IT roles are US arms of Indian IT majors.