Trump v Climate Action

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House has sent tremors through the global environmental and climate policy landscape. His first tenure as president was marked by an aggressive rollback of environmental protections and a sharp retreat from international climate commitments. These actions were not mere policy adjustments but constituted a calculated dismantling of the structures supporting environmental stewardship. With close to 100 environmental regulations reversed, Trump’s administration positioned itself as an adversary of climate action, casting doubt on the United States’ commitment to combating climate change. If reinstated, his leadership threatens to exacerbate this trajectory, undermining both domestic and international efforts to address the climate crisis.This anxiety was heightened by the COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where the urgency of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels dominates the agenda.These negotiations, critical for galvanising global commitments, now face an existential threat from Trump’s rhetoric and potential policy directions. For a world already teetering on the brink of climate catastrophe, his return could have irreversible consequences. Truth Election Commission: That’s How Trump Could Have LostThe Paris Agreement, celebrated as a turning point in global climate diplomacy, has long stood as a test of collective willpower in addressing climate change. Trump’s withdrawal from the accord during his first term dealt a significant blow to this consensus, signalling an abandonment of US leadership on climate issues. While President Biden’s re-entry to the agreement attempted to restore confidence, the lingering impact of Trump’s decision continues to erode trust in the United States as a dependable partner.The spectre of Trump’s return cast its shadow over COP29. In an unprecedented move, Argentinian negotiators were recalled mid-summit by President Javier Milei’s government, following Milei’s direct communication with Trump. Known for dismissing the climate crisis as a “socialist lie,” Milei reportedly acted on Trump’s endorsement, further destabilising an already fragile negotiation process. Such incidents exemplify how Trump’s influence, even before a formal return to office, could embolden other leaders to undermine global climate efforts.The stakes at COP29 were immense, with nations negotiating critical emissions reductions and financing mechanisms like the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). A second US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement—an outcome Trump has promised—could dismantle years of consensus-building on climate finance and mitigation strategies. Worse, it might encourage a domino effect of nations abandoning commitments, propelling global climate governance into chaos.The urgency of the moment cannot be overstated. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that the 1.5°C warming threshold could become unattainable within this decade without immediate, large-scale emission reductions. Trump’s fossil-fuel-centric policies, projected to increase US emissions by a billion tonnes, would make this target nearly impossible to achieve. The Disproportionate Impact of Climate Change on the Women of Northeast IndiaShould Trump’s policies create a leadership vacuum, global players are already strategising to mitigate the fallout. The European Union, for instance, is recalibrating its approach, seeking to strengthen climate diplomacy with other major emitters like China and India. Anticipating potential US withdrawal from green subsidy programs, European businesses are lobbying for accelerated implementation of the EU’s Clean Industrial Deal to bolster domestic investments in clean technology.China, while grappling with trade tensions, may seize the opportunity to position itself as a global leader in climate diplomacy. By doubling down on renewable energy investments and maintaining its Paris Agreement commitments, Beijing could fill the void left by the US, consolidating its influence in clean energy markets. Similarly, India might leverage the situation to amplify its role in representing the interests of developing nations, particularly in securing climate finance and promoting equitable energy transitions.Meanwhile, the United Kingdom, navigating post-Brexit complexities, is likely to strengthen alliances with the EU and other partners on net-zero initiatives. This reshuffling of alliances underscores a broader shift in global climate leadership, as nations adapt to the possibility of prolonged US disengagement. The Climate Change Dictionary | Is Rainfall Becoming Increasingly Unpredictable?Trump’s domestic environmental policies reflect a broader disregard for climate imperatives, prioritising short-term economic gains for the fossil fuel industry over long-term sustainability. His administration systematically dismantled critical regulations, replacing robust frameworks with watered-down alternatives. The Clean Power Plan, aimed at reducing emissions from power plants, was weakened. Fuel efficiency standards were rolled back, contributing to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Methane regulations, essential for curbing a potent greenhouse gas, were eased. Protections for water bodies under the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule were stripped away, exposing ecosystems to greater risk.A second Trump term would likely double down on these deregulatory efforts, further debilitating agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).Already weakened under his leadership, the EPA could face additional budget cuts and staffing crises, hampering enforcement and leaving critical ecological systems vulnerable. Trump’s rhetoric around “energy dominance” aligns closely with fossil fuel interests, with promises to halve natural gas and electricity prices signalling a push for high-emission infrastructure incompatible with global decarbonisation goals. Trump 2.0 and India's Economic InterestsThe implications of Trump’s climate policies extend far beyond US borders. As the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, the United States plays a pivotal role in determining the global trajectory of emissions. A retreat from climate action at this juncture could derail global efforts, amplifying vulnerabilities for nations already grappling with climate-induced challenges.Public sentiment in the EU, where climate change once ranked as a top concern, has shown signs of fatigue, with only 50% of voters in 2024 considering it a priority compared to 77% in 2019. This decline in public pressure, coupled with Trump’s disregard for international climate finance, threatens to stall progress on key goals like mobilising $100 billion annually for developing nations—a commitment already falling short. Nevertheless, there is a glimmer of hope. During Trump’s first term, states like California and New York, alongside corporate actors and civil society, emerged as bastions of climate leadership, preserving momentum in renewable energy investment and emissions reductions. These actors may again serve as critical counterbalances to federal inaction, ensuring that progress continues, albeit unevenly. Trump's Foreign Policy is Highly Personalised. So What About Israel and Ukraine?Trump’s return to the presidency represents a critical inflexion point in the fight against climate change. The setbacks of his first term have already cost valuable time in addressing this existential crisis; a second term could cement these delays into long-term regression. Yet, resilience within local and international coalitions offers a counter-narrative—one of continued action despite federal backsliding.The international community must sustain its commitments, leveraging forums like COP29 to reaffirm that climate action is not contingent on US leadership. Emerging partnerships, particularly between the EU, China, and other major emitters, could provide the impetus needed to advance global goals. The stakes are clear: failure to act decisively risks locking the world into a future marked by greater inequality, instability, and environmental degradation. The clock is ticking, and the margin for error has all but vanished. (Ashraf Nehal is a foreign policy analyst and a columnist who mainly tracks South Asia. He can be reached on Twitter at @ashrafnehal19 and on Instagram at ___ashraf___19. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for his reported views.)In Electing Trump Again, the American Public Has Cast a Mirror Upon Itself

BECOME A MEMBER

Trump v Climate Action

Trump’s return to the presidency represents a critical inflexion point in the fight against climate change.

Read Latest News and Breaking News at The Quint, browse for more from opinion

Topics: Climate Change