The controversy stoked by Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the Congress party’s 2024 poll manifesto cuts both ways. It could communally polarise the electorate, as the BJP hopes, with the rant about "wealth redistribution"’, mangalsutra, and minorities.
On the other hand, issues concerning economic and social inequity, which the Congress manifesto has promised to address "through suitable changes in policy," could take centre stage and become the dominant narrative of the ongoing election.
Much depends on the Congress party’s ability to hold its ground and not wilt under Modi’s sledgehammer attacks, as it is prone to do.
With two phases of polling over and five more to go, the campaign is delicately poised at this point. Whichever way it swings, the dynamics this time are markedly different from all other elections since Modi’s ascendance in 2014.
The PM has almost always framed the national discourse over the past decade and put the Opposition on the back foot. For the first time, however, the narrative seems to be slipping away from him.
The Opposition's Charge Appears to Have Resonance on the Ground
The issues with which he began the 2024 campaign – Modi ki Guarantee, viksit Bharat and the Ram mandir – have all but vanished from his speeches. His focus is increasingly on the Congress party's manifesto as he attempts to weaponise it into a polarising force.
For the first time, instead of forcing the Opposition to fight on his terrain, he has taken the battle to the other side in the hope of bearding the lion in its den.
While Modi is at his best when he’s on the offensive, this time, he seems to be coming from a defensive place. The Opposition’s allegation that he will change the Constitution if the BJP wins 400 seats has caught the party off guard.
The charge appears to have resonance on the ground, particularly with the Dalits and the tribal community who fear that they will lose the right to reservations if the Constitution is rewritten.
Although the prime minister and Union minister Amit Shah have gone blue in the face defending the Constitution and the reservation policy, at least five senior BJP leaders, including four prominent candidates including Arun Govil (of Ramayana fame), have contradicted them.
This dissonance has only reaffirmed fears about the BJP’s actual stand on the issue. Has the party’s famed discipline collapsed or is this a deliberate strategy to keep different sets of vote banks happy?
There is Sharp Focus on a Document Which May Have Otherwise Gone Unnoticed
The history of the RSS and its political offshoots, first the Jan Sangh and then the BJP, tells us that they have had serious issues with the Constitution that was adopted in 1950 on several grounds, including its liberal framework and the concept of federalism.
It is significant that Modi fired the first polarising salvo about wealth redistribution at a rally in tribal-dominated Banswada in Rajasthan. His speech was laden with dog whistles about "those who produce more children" and "infiltrators"’. It was an obvious attempt to pit tribal people against Muslims and divert attention from talk about changing the Constitution.
It is equally significant that Modi lit the fire after the first phase of polling, which ground reports suggest did not go as hoped for the BJP, likely because of the indifference of its core Hindu voters.
Several BJP leaders are on record expressing worry about low polling in states that the party had swept in 2019. The challenge ahead is to guard its northern fortress by charging up its core voters through the tried and tested tactic of communal polarisation.
It is ironic that Modi and the BJP have chosen to use the Congress' poll manifesto for this. While it may excite their voters, the unfolding poll narrative has also brought into sharp focus a document which may have otherwise gone unnoticed and unread.
The Ball is Now in Congress' Court
Election manifestos are rarely discussed or dissected. They are released at a grand ceremony and then forgotten. For the first time ever, a poll manifesto has become the central theme of an election campaign.
The Congress could never have imagined in its wildest dreams that its nyay patra would get such wide publicity. Although the BJP hopes to negate the concept of economic and social justice promised by the Congress with scaremongering about wealth redistribution, the reality is that the manifesto has started trending on social media and is being discussed at tea shops across small towns in north India.
The ball is now in the Congress' court. It has lost some momentum because it was forced to go into damage control mode after Gandhi family friend Sam Pitroda jumped into the debate and raked up the issue of inheritance tax.
It remains to be seen whether the Congress can take control of the narrative and turn it around in its favour. It has to pit its wits against the formidable oratory of the prime minister but a Congress fightback could spice up an otherwise lacklustre election whose outcome was pitched as a done deal when the campaign first began.
(Arati R Jerath is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @AratiJ. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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