China's Sixth-Generation Fighters vs India's Delayed Tejas: Bragging About How Great We Are Won't Suffice

Days after China publicly unveiled three aircraft, including a sixth-generation stealth combat jet by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, the Indian Air Force (IAF) Chief, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh, reportedly expressed concern over the delayed delivery of the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft. Noting that the initial order of 40 aircraft from 2009-2010 has not yet been fully delivered, he pointed out that India's adversaries, especially China, are making significant investments in their air forces.For India, the issue is not merely about the sixth-generation stealth aircraft – it well could buy some later – but about the broader evolution of its military.It depends on the quality of India’s educational institutions, the curriculum, investments in education systems, research and development (R&D), innovation, free thinking, of developing an excellent industrial base which uses AL/IIOT to deliver quality products, and skilling people appropriately to operate these systems. Merely bragging about how great we are won’t suffice.On Mao Zedong's birthday – 26 December – apart from the sixth-generation stealth combat jets, China unveiled a similar but smaller aircraft by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and an airborne warning and control variant of the Y-20 airlifter.Chinese commentators proclaimed these three essential elements of China’s air warfare systems for the 2030s and beyond are part of a 'tea set', with the 'teapot' being the yet to be unveiled H-20 stealth bomber (which it purports will rival the USA’s B-21 ‘Raider’).What drew most international attention was the stealth aircraft test-flown near Chengdu. The J-36 is powered by three engines placed at the rear. The suggestion by few Western commentators that this maybe because China doesn’t have powerful engines doesn’t hold water. Other experts affirm that the overall design and configuration indicates the centre engine, fed by a diverterless supersonic inlet above the body, is intended for supersonic cruise/hypersonic flight, while the non-afterburning/limited afterburning left-and-right engines, with caret-shaped inlets, are for transonic flight/acceleration. One expert opined that the three-jet configuration could also allow for impressive symmetrical thrust vectoring with one engine inoperative. As per Hong Kong-based military commentator Liang Guoliang, the rear-mounted scramjet implies “a capability to fly at hypersonic speeds in near-space or suborbital altitudes, making it nearly impossible to be shot down”.With three weapon bays (main at 7.6 metres long and two side bays for smaller weapons), it's assessed to have a take-off weight of around 55-tonnes.Sixth-generation combat jets should typically incorporate enhanced stealth, concealed weapons, avionic and hypersonic capabilities, integration of AI and quantum computing, and manned-unmanned teaming with drones flying alongside.If all specs stand validated, the J-36 would be China’s first sixth-generation fighter jet – and second in the world after the USA’s NGAD-P.However, the NGAD-P (prototype flown in 2020) stands stalled by budget and policy issues. The cost per unit shot up to $300 million which is thrice that of a F-35As a result, the US Air Force Secretary placed the NGAD-P on hold as the program and the air superiority strategy as a whole were reviewedIn December 2024, the US Air Force then announced that its review supported the program, but its fate rests with the incoming Donald Trump administrationIncidentally, Elon Musk, one of the heads of a government efficiency advisory panel, has labelled manufacturers of crewed fighter jets as “idiots”, adding that “manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones”.A number of other countries have sixth-generation fighter jet development programmes.The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) of Britain-Italy-Japan The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) of France-Germany-SpainBut none except the USA’s NGAD-P has flown even a prototype. While the USA’s under-final-testing B-21 ‘Raider’ is sixth generation, it’s a strategic bomber – and not a fighter jet. In sum: China is only country making swift, reckonable headway on sixth-generation fighter aircraft. While the J-36 does seem to borrow a bit from Lockheed’s 'Hopeless Diamond' (named thus as it couldn’t fly) of the 1970s, and Northrop Grumman’s X-47A Pegasus unmanned combat aircraft demonstrator of 2003, the J-36’s large electro-optical sensor windows on both sides of the nose and dark-tinted canopy, in conjunction with the three-engine set-up, suggest a significant departure from US designs.The November 2024 Zhuhai air show had extensive displays of new advanced drone combat swarms and systems to counter them. These highlight the challenges which India and the USA face in aerial warfare and are indicative of China’s rapid advancements in aerospace technology.In October 2024, South China Morning Post quoted Lu Yongxiang, former vice-chairman of the National People’s Congress, as stating that China will overtake the USA in hi-tech and advanced military manufacturing within a decade as “overall, the decline of the US manufacturing industry and its weakened competitiveness in the global market have become an irreversible trend.”A 2021 report by the Office of the US Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition & Sustainment) titled “A 21st Century Defense Industrial Strategy for America” appears to validate Lu’s claim – it outlines how the end of the Cold War rendered obsolete the USA’s need to maintain an edge in innovation and manufacturing; the steady de-industrialisation of the USA over the past five decades, including in workforce and manufacturing innovation; off-shoring of its industrial base; paucity of skilled workers; and the low R&D investments in high-tech.Lacking significant technologies, it launched a 'Made in China 2025' in 2015 to narrow that gap and reportedly achieved most outlined goals despite restrictions imposed by Trump and Joe Biden administrations. In 2023, the country contributed about one-third of the total global manufacturing output, roughly double that of USA, even as Chinese shipyards secured orders to build more than 1,500 large ships worldwide versus just five orders to the USA. Add to it the rise of high-end industries which are much ahead of those in the West.As per Christopher Beddor of Gavekal Dragonomics, China – with its large manufacturing industry – is the world’s largest robotics market, with installation of industrial robots rising by 75 percent between 2021 and 2023 vis-à-vis 2018-2020. As of 2023, the number of companies in China’s robotics industry was nearly 80,000, with over 4,000 listed as hi-tech enterprises. Many Chinese provinces have recently released additional programmes for humanoid robotic innovation to boost manufacturing and the economy.Air power is an essential element of the USA military and expeditionary warfare. An article in the Foreign Affairs (September-October 2024) by General Mark Miley, former Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Eric Schmidt, chairman of Special Competitive Studies Project, outlines “How America isn’t Ready for Wars of the Future” because it persists with legacy structures, platforms, and doctrines, and is yet to incorporate autonomous weapons, military AI, drones, among others.It added that in 2022, big companies like Lockheed, RTX, General Dynamics, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman received 30 percent of all DoD orders, while new weapons manufacturers/venture-backed companies received less than 1% – even as China commences its largest military restructuring with an emphasis on technology-driven forces. The Pentagon’s 2024 Report to Congress on China acknowledges the People's Liberation Army (PLA) as a worthy adversary, describing it as “an increasingly capable instrument of national power” that’s well-trained in combined operations, and equipped with advanced command and control, intelligence, surveillance, and area denial capabilities. A separate report by Australia’s Lowy Institute’s international security programme states that the US defence strategy in Asia-Pacific is now pivoting from supremacy and winning a war against China, to a ‘scatter and survive’ approach.Meanwhile, at present, the IAF operates 31 combat squadrons, which is much below the authorised strength of 42. This air power deficit is aggravated by an ageing fleet and delays in key indigenous projects, particularly the fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft or AMCA (proposed induction by 2030) and the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk-2, with its thirty-six 4.5-generation Rafale being the most advanced combat aircraft. With Pakistan recently fast-tracking acquisition of 40 Chinese J-35 stealth fighters (export-oriented variant of China’s J-31 stealth fighter expected to be delivered in 2027), the air capability gap widens further.Very recently, countries involved in the Global Combat Air Programme or GCAP (established in 2022) and Future Combat Air System or FCAS (expected to deliver sixth-generation fighter by 2040) have invited India to be part of their respective programmes. Yet, India faces a dilemma – continue with its fifth-generation AMCA or abandon it and join the GCAP/FCAS or progress both fifth- and sixth-generation projects simultaneously irrespective of the cost.Military evolution has always caused significant geopolitical consequences. Past battlefields were a blackhole requiring constant replenishment of materials (and men). Besides, hi-tech was the exclusive domain of just a few countries. This meant that only nations with adequate populations, and good technological, industrial and manufacturing bases could sustain high-intensity wars. It's such aspects which allowed the USA to maintain a military overmatch over others. But globalisation, travel, and internet have led to wide proliferation of knowledge, education, science, engineering, technology, industrial methods, and of hi-tech being available beyond that select group. China has effectively leveraged that. On a different note, Russia’s military did not evolve but expected to defeat Ukraine swiftly with older systems – it couldn’t.(Kuldip Singh is a retired Brigadier from the Indian Army. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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Sixth-Gen Fighters vs Delayed Tejas: As China Soars, India Falls Far Behind

The IAF chief recently said the initial order of 40 Tejas LAC from 2009-2010 has not yet been fully delivered.

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