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Bihar Election: What Opinion Polls Can Tell Us & What They Can’t

Renowned psephologist Sanjay Kumar writes about unreasonable expectations people have from opinion polls. 

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No beating around the bush: yes, conducting a pre-poll survey is challenging, whether it is in Bihar or any other state. It is, however, far more challenging to conduct a survey in Bihar than in many other states.

It is difficult to conduct pre-polls surveys due to multiplicity of political parties, shifting of alliance partners, and multi cornered contests. What makes the process more complicated is the presence of large number of castes and a very strong caste-based voting.

A much bigger challenge for any pre-poll survey is meeting people’s expectation, what people expect a pre-poll to tell you.

What has added to the challenge of conducting an opinion poll in present times is the COVID-19 pandemic, which makes it mandatory for the field investigator and respondent to follow various precautions, maintain distance, wear mask – all of which in some manner dampens the exercise. Travelling long distance has been very difficult, so surveyors needed to arrange for local investigators for conducting the field work.

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