Despite Zero-Seat Jinx, the Left Front May Decide Who Wins Bengal Elections

Since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in West Bengal has not won a single seat under the umbrella of the Left Front, which once the state ruled continuously for 34 years. In both the 2021 Assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections—as the party’s influence in the state and the national politics waned—the Left Front couldn't open its account.Now, as West Bengal heads into another Assembly elections, the Left party is trying its best to break the zero-seat jinx.The Left Front, an alliance formed in the 1970s, is contesting 252 seats.CPI(M) = 195 seats Communist Party of India (CPI) = 16 seats All India Forward Bloc = 23 seats Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) = 16 seats Revolutionary Communist Party of India (RCPI) = 1 seat Marxist Forward Bloc (MFB) = 1 seatFor the remaining 42 seats, the Left Front has allied with the Indian Secular Front (ISF) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation) or CPI(ML)(L).While the ISF, whose secularism gets blurred by its Muslim religious identity, has been given 30 seats; the CPI(ML)(L) is allotted 9 seats and the Samajwadi Party one seat. It is also supporting Ajay Edwards of the Indian Gorkha Janshakti Front in Darjeeling. Fresh Faces, New Guard: The Left Party's Bid to Reverse Its DeclineWhile the mainstream discussion focuses on the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) binary, the Left, despite failing to win a single seat, remains a factor. In the last Assembly elections, the Left got more votes than the winning margins in 79 seats. Of the 79 seats, 52 were won by the TMC and 27 by the BJP. Apart from these seats, the Left came second in four seats. This shows that in the last elections, the Left played a major role in deciding the victor in at least 79 seats.This time the Left seems to have gained some strength. While the Left didn’t win any seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it increased its vote share to 14 percent in the Panchayat elections held one year before—indicating its grassroots presence in the state. While in North Bengal the Left remains very weak, it has considerable strength in parts of Central and South Bengal. Importantly, South Bengal has been the bastion of the TMC, with the BJP remaining a weak player.At a time when the state is politically polarised between the TMC and the BJP—driven by identity politics on the basis of religion and regionalism, the Left is banking on youth and experienced faces who are focusing on basic issues like corruption and unemployment.Some of its prominent youth faces include the party's Central Committee member Meenakshi Mukherjee (Uttarpara), Dipshita Dhar (Dumdum Uttar), Kalatan Dasgupta (Panihati), and Afreen Shilpi (Ballygunge). Experienced faces include former MP Bikash Ranjan Bhattacharjya (Jadavpur), and former MLAs like Debalina Hembram (Ranibandh) and Manas Mukherjee (Kamarhati). Apart from them, local popular faces like Mostafizur Rahaman (Domkal) and Md Sahabuddin (Karandighi) have been fielded by the Left to open its account.In the last Assembly elections, the CPI(M) were runner-up in Domkal, Bhagawangola, Jalangi, and Jadavpur. Barring Jadavpur, three of the seats fall under the Murshidabad district, which is a Muslim-majority district. Bengal Polls: ‘Cards Stacked Against Mamata but BJP Has Also Scored a Self-Goal’Since the BJP rose in the state by largely eating into the Left votes, any chance of revival of the Left is likely to act as a barrier for the saffron party. Even last time, the Left spoilt the BJP’s chances in at least 52 seats. The Left, particularly the CPI(M), being a cadre-based political party, still has its organisational structure, albeit weak, across the state. That’s the reason the BJP state leaders have appealed several times to the Left’s workers and supporters to vote for the BJP, while accusing the Left of having a secret alliance with the TMC. The saffron party believes that this strategy will not only help retain the Left voters within the party, but also bring additional Left voters to the party.It is not that the Left is likely to damage only the BJP. It can damage the TMC, too. Since the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Left has lost a section of its base to the TMC—a fact surprisingly often avoided in the state’s mainstream discussion since the BJP's emergence.A significant section of the Muslim vote bank of the TMC came from the Left. With Muslims standing largely with the TMC, there has been some discontent within the community. With the ISF entering the field, a section of Muslims are willing to vote for the party. That’s the reason the CPI(M), despite facing criticisms even from its allies like the RSP and Forward Bloc, went ahead to ally with the ISF to get back its lost Muslim support base. The CPI(M), in its desperation, has even allied with the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), often seen as a Muslim communal party. The SDPI is contesting the Sagardighi seat on the ISF’s “envelope” symbol. The Left has been attacking the BJP on the issue of the Special Intensive Review (SIR), keeping in mind the Muslim votes. This is done as the party fears that the SIR issue may once again consolidate the Muslim vote bank towards the TMC.However, the CPI(M)’s softness towards the ISF has not only caused discontent among allies like the CPI, the RSP, and Forward Bloc, but also among a section of the party's support base. This can prevent a section of Hindu Left voters from returning back to the Left—and even push some of the Hindu Left votes further to the BJP.WebQoof Recap: Misinformation Around Noida Workers' Protest, West Bengal PollsThough the Left had a golden opportunity this time to recover its lost ground, its hesitancy to contest more seats and alliance hurdles with the ISF have definitely damaged its image. Even as the Left focuses on basic issues to attract the voters, its failure to properly counter the identity politics played by the TMC and the BJP may act as a barrier—as seen in the 2019, 2021, and 2024 elections. Merely propagating the TMC-BJP secret alliance is unlikely to stick with the voters, who are more concerned with measuring their gains. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M) was marginally ahead in the Raninagar seat of Murshidabad. While it is not clear whether the Left will be able to break the zero-seat jinx this time, it is certain that it will play a major role in deciding the winner in many seats. (Sagarneel Sinha is a political commentator and tweets @SagarneelSinha. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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Despite Zero-Seat Jinx, the Left Front May Decide Who Wins Bengal Elections

The Left could damage the prospects of both the BJP and the TMC in a large number of seats, writes Sagarneel Sinha.

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Topics: West Bengal Left Front West Bengal elections