Senior BJP leader and Minister for Communications and Information Technology Ravi Shankar Prasad asked a pertinent question recently — what happened to the Janta Parivaar merger? When did it become a pre-poll alliance?
Internal disagreements aside, the Bihar election is set to be a bi-polar one. And despite Prasad’s confidence in his party’s future, the battle is far from being won.
All Things Being Equal...
The 2010 Assembly Elections were a relatively easy ride for the RJD-BJP alliance. Nitish Kumar’s performance as an administrator, coupled with the upper-caste vote that came with the BJP, and his own base among Kurmis, Koeris and other OBCs made him a shoe-in for Chief Minister.
The new configurations in the state though, change the story completely.
Yadavs, OBCs Consolidate Behind Lalu and Nitish
According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), with 51 per cent of the voteshare, backward castes form the most sizable chunk of the electorate. Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar have competed for these votes for the better part of two decades. If their alliance translates to a consolidation among these electorally significant communities, they are well on their way to victory.
Upper Castes and Dalits with the NDA
The BJP on the other hand has pre-poll alliances with Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party (LJP), and Jitan Ram Manjhi, Nitish’s place-holder Chief Minister.
Both are Mahadalit leaders, and could bring a large section of the 16 per cent SC votes to the BJP-led alliance, which already commands some loyalty among upper-caste voters.
The Muslim Vote
The Muslim vote in the state, also at about 16 per cent, was divided between the RJD, JD(U) and the Congress in the 2014 General Elections. Traditionally wary of the BJP, the minority vote could seal the deal for Nitish and Lalu.
So purely on social arithmetic, Nitish, Lalu and the Congress have the advantage.
Now, the Caveats
In August 2014, the Lalu-Nitish-Congress combination won six out 10 seats in the bypoll elections, with the BJP the bagging four. There is no guarantee, though, that this trend will continue.
Will the Alliance Trickle Down?
The alliance between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav may not be a smooth ride. Will their new found bonhomie translate into genuine coordination on the ground?
There is of course, the matter of seat sharing, which has been a bone of contention for sometime now. The deeper problem though, may be party workers coordinating after decades of strife and competition. While Lalu and Nitish seem to have buried the hatchet, their bonhomie may not trickle down to local rivalries between their supporters and followers.
Communal Polarisation
The months after Nitish Kumar and JD(U) chose to end their alliance with the BJP over Narendra Modi’s ascension saw a surge in low-level communal violence in Bihar.
According to the Indian Express, there were 83 incidents incidents of communal clashes between January and September in 2014. A senior journalist and expert on Bihar told this author that “an undercurrent of communal tension and polarisation even today.”
Such a polarisation could possibly bring a large share of the Hindu vote across caste lines to the BJP. In addition, the dedicated cadre of the BJP and RSS could give them a significant advantage.
Who is the BJP’s Face?
While Nitish Kumar is now the CM candidate for his alliance, the BJP is yet to declare their choice. As things stand, they seem to lack the stature of Nitish or Lalu. Will it be former Deputy CM Sushil Kumar Modi, or even Shatrughan Sinha?
The BJP may have to rely on the Prime Minister to work his magic on the campaign trail once again.
However, this may be an election fought on social issues and configurations as much as development, and a Lalu-Nitish partnership may steal a march there.
Currently, the BJP does not seem to have a leader in Bihar that can take them head on. And the last thing they need is another Kiran Bedi.
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