As Mamata's Trinamool Outplays Congress in Meghalaya, Does BJP Stand a Chance?

Mukul Sangma, Meghalaya’s former Chief Minister and an astute politician, had been hobnobbing with the Trinamool Congress in the last few months. It was no shocker, therefore, when he finally left the Congress on 24 November. What stunned the Congress was that Sangma walked away with 12 of the 17 MLAs, thereby reducing the grand old party to a small-time player in the Assembly, and thereby taking away its status as the main opposition. The arbitrary appointment of Lok Sabha MP Vincent Pala as the Pradesh chief by the AICC has really done the Congress in. The infamous moniker ‘grand old party’ seems hell-bent on committing political suicide from Punjab to Meghalaya, and elsewhere, too, where old loyalists have been sidelined and, in some cases, shown the door.The Congress in Meghalaya has been in a state of churn ever since Pala took over as PCC Chief. It was obvious that Mukul Sangma was not going to play second fiddle to Pala. Besides, while the Congress MLAs have only now left their party to join the TMC, the fact is that younger aspiring politicians have already joined the Bengal Party and are readying themselves for the 2023 election from different constituencies.Congress Failed as Opposition, Have Decided to Merge With TMC: Ex-Meghalaya CMThese young aspirants feel that the BJP is not yet acceptable in Meghalaya. If at all it gets votes, those are only from the largely non-tribal localities like Laban and Pynthor Umkhrah in Khasi Hills, and, at best, one or two constituencies in Garo Hills. Only these have been the BJP’s stronghold. This time, for the three by-elections held, the BJP could find a candidate only for Rajabala. There were no takers for BJP tickets from Mawryngkneng and Mawphlang, both tribal-dominated constituencies.TMC's New Recruits Are of 4 Types, Each Closely Tied to Mamata's Mission 2024The BJP has tried its best to create a foothold in Meghalaya since 1998, when two MLAs were elected. Both the MLAs then represented Laban and Pynthor Umkhrah – non-tribal-dominated constituencies. The reason why the saffron party has not been able to make headway in Meghalaya is largely that it is seen as anti-minority. As per the 2011 census, Christians constituted roughly 75% of the population. The rest are adherents of the indigenous faith, ie., Hindus and Muslims. Every time there is an incident of nuns and priests being attacked and churches or church-run properties vandalised in the rest of India, the news resonates here in Meghalaya and the Northeast. A sense of insecurity engulfs people here. The ban on the slaughter and sale of beef has also added to the anathema against the BJP. It is seen as an intrusion into tribal food habits. Beef is the only cheap source of protein, and without it, people would be deprived of their nutrition, especially since dal and other proteins have become unaffordable. BJP’s Cow Politics: Why the Northeast Is a Different AnimalA sense of insecurity engulfs people here. The ban on the slaughter and sale of beef has also added to the anathema against the BJP. It is seen as an intrusion into tribal food habits. Beef is the only cheap source of protein, and without it, people would be deprived of their nutrition, especially since dal and other proteins have become unaffordable.This is the baggage that the BJP carries in Meghalaya, which makes it unacceptable. The two candidates who won the elections in 2018 did not hard-sell the BJP agenda. Even they know that it makes sense to speak development than to allow people an opportunity to castigate the saffron party.These two MLAs, moreover, would have won from any other constituency. That’s how personally popular they are.As elsewhere, the TMC is emerging as the only party that can give the BJP a run for its money, with politicians joining it as a national alternative to the BJP. This implies that hardcore politicians who understand the stakes in politics know that the Congress is no longer an alternative to the BJP. It does not have the gravitas and the weft or the cutting-edge aggressiveness needed to counter someone like Narendra Modi or Amit Shah, who have continuously drummed the “dynastic” style of functioning of the Congress leadership. In fact, the BJP rhetoric that as long as Rahul Gandhi remains at the helm of the Congress party he makes it easier for the BJP to win elections has become an urban legend.In TMC's Festival Shopping List, 'Big' BJP Leaders, 'Caste-Aways' & Classic CongEven firm loyalists of the Congress have begun doubting whether the party can upstage the BJP in 2024. The Congress party has unfortunately been handcuffed to slavish deference to the Nehru-Gandhi family. There is no inner-party democracy at the top. That top-down approach has started to stink because people at the blocks and primary Uunits know better who would make a good President at the state level, but they are not given the right to elect that leader.But there is one problem with Meghalaya, as is also with the six other Northeastern states.Political parties that are elected to form the government have to be on the same side as the party/parties ruling Delhi. There is a constant need for resources, and thus, a friendly government at the Centre is easier to deal with than an antagonistic one.Although in a federal structure, the Centre has to compulsorily deploy resources to the states for socio-economic development and infrastructure creation, that is easier said than done. The Centre knows how to create situations to make the states toe the line. That’s the sad reality.As far as Mukul Sangma’s choice of the TMC is concerned, he really had no option other than to form his own political party. Aligning with the BJP is not an option because there is place for only one leader in the region. That space has been taken by Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is Mukul Sangma’s bete noire. Himanta would make it difficult for Mukul to emerge as a strong national leader to contend from the region. And Mukul Sangma has the potential to be a national leader. In the TMC, he has the leverage to emerge as a strong tribal leader from the region at the national level. Moreover, the BJP in Meghalaya does not have the appeal to be able to reach out to the masses. Its president, Ernest Mawrie, does not have a public appeal and the intellectual breadth that is expected of a party that is ruling the country. This lack of charisma in the BJP leadership in Meghalaya also places the party at a grave disadvantage.The Mamata Factor: How Congress is Losing Ground to TrinamoolThere are critics who feel that the TMC is in fact destroying all chances of Opposition unity in the country to take on the BJP, by moving forward alone instead of aligning with the Congress. But when the Congress refuses to sit back and take a hard look at itself and honestly address its organisational problems, then few other parties can work with it.Hence, between now and 2023, it will be interesting to watch how the new Trinamool MLAs are going to explain their actions to the electorate.Sure, they all came together under the leadership of Mukul Sangma, but when they go to their electorate, it will be a lonely journey. Rebuilding people’s trust sometimes takes a generation.(The writer is the Editor of The Shillong Times and former member of NSAB. She can be reached @meipat. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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As TMC Outplays Congress in Meghalaya, Does BJP Stand a Chance?

The BJP has tried its best to create a foothold in Meghalaya but has remained unpopular.

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