The glee in the Congress' circles matched the elation in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) camp as Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) crashed to defeat in the Delhi Assembly elections last week.
Although the Congress did not win a single seat in Delhi for the third consecutive election – and its vote share rose by a meagre 2 percent to 6.34 percent – the party's mood of exhilaration came as no surprise.
The AAP has been the bane of the Congress ever since it exploded onto the political stage in 2012. In just a decade, it swallowed the Congress voter base, snatching Delhi and Punjab away from the party.
It also nibbled into the party’s vote share in states such as Gujarat, Haryana, and Goa, to the benefit of the BJP, showing signs of emerging as a third force in areas that traditionally saw a bipolar fight between the two main national parties.
Why Kejriwal was a Threat to Gandhi
As his party upended conventional political paradigms, Kejriwal himself emerged as a potential threat to Rahul Gandhi. The AAP chief has made no secret of his ambitions to become prime minister.
He has repeatedly pitted himself against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, insidiously challenging Gandhi for acceptance as a national alternative, and more recently, for leadership of the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc.
Had he won Delhi for a third consecutive term, Kejriwal may well have been on course to fulfil his dream. His rift with Gandhi would only have widened, egged on by other INDIA partners like Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), which have often fired off Kejriwal’s shoulder to keep the Congress in check.
Is it any wonder, then, that the Congress sees a glimmer of hope for itself in the collapse of the AAP and Kejriwal’s personal loss in the New Delhi seat?
Congress Must Face Itself
On the face of it, the Delhi verdict opens a window of opportunity for the Congress. Theoretically, the AAP’s defeat is a chance for the grand old party to reclaim its bastions in Delhi and Punjab — and recoup its losses in other states where Kejriwal had managed to make inroads.
However, two key questions arise. First, is the Congress up to meeting the challenges ahead as it strives for revival in areas where it was displaced by the AAP? Second, does it have the sagacity of the BJP to balance coalition politics with the struggle to rebuild organisational muscle and establish itself as a formidable force?
Although the INDIA bloc has been fraying – largely due to internal conflicts – despite its impressive showing in last year’s Lok Sabha polls, its raison d’etre remains as strong as ever, if not stronger.
Opposition parties had buried their differences to join hands with the sole aim of stopping the BJP juggernaut before it destroyed them. They were partially successful, but the BJP’s staggering victories in three consecutive Assembly polls have reinvigorated the party and restored the aura of its formidable election machine.
Except for Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP crushed the Congress in Haryana, and other INDIA bloc partners in Maharashtra and Delhi. Three successive wins have set a resurgent BJP on course for the next big electoral battle in Bihar, where it and its ally, the Janata Dal (United), will take on INDIA members — the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
The Opposition will have to chart its future course of action against this backdrop — and redefine the contours of unity in a reconfigured battlefield.
Future of Congress in AAP's Court
Much depends on what happens to Kejriwal and his party. The AAP chief has shown a remarkable ability to bounce back when he is down. However, his party is just 13 years old and is built on a volunteer model rather than a cadre-based organisation.
Should the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) pursue the corruption cases against him and other AAP leaders vigorously, the party may soon be plunged into an existential crisis. This will give the Congress room to manoeuvre, provided it is up to the task.
On the other hand, those familiar with Kejriwal's politics believe he may embark on a countrywide padyatra to regain his moral credibility and restore his aam aadmi appeal.
If he succeeds, he will soon prove to be a challenge for the Congress again. The last thing the Opposition needs while facing an exultant BJP is another Kejriwal-Gandhi clash, with both vying with each other to position themselves as the national alternative to Modi.
Several Opposition leaders have issued pious statements about the need for unity after the Delhi verdict. But unity may extract a heavy toll from the two leaders who have bled INDIA the most – Gandhi and Kejriwal.
(Arati R Jerath is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @AratiJ. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)