Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) and Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) sealed an alliance in November this year, ahead of the 2017 Assembly Polls in Uttar Pradesh.
In the past, Ajit Singh has also worked with the Congress and the Left parties. Considering the kind of vote share Ajit Singh’s RLD has been getting in the last three assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh (around 3 percent with minor variation), his moves are increasingly seen as irrelevant in the context of the overall outcome of elections.
Other than limited pockets of influence in a few seats in western Uttar Pradesh, the RLD is a marginal force in the rest of the state. It is quite a change from the days of Chaudhary Charan Singh – a formidable farmer leader and founder of Lok Dal – the progenitor of the RLD.
RLD Losing Its Clout
After Charan Singh’s demise, his son Ajit Singh became a self-proclaimed leader of kisan politics, albeit with very limited success. Despite trying his luck with almost every party in successive elections, his political career never really took off. Few assembly seats (9 in 2012) and fewer Lok Sabha seats are all that the RLD has been getting in Uttar Pradesh all these years.
He is not the only kisan politician who is staring at political oblivion. The influence of Om Prakash Chautala (inheritor of another formidable farmer leader of yesteryear Devi Lal’s legacy) in Haryana and HD Deve Gowda in Karnataka is clearly on the wane. What is more, organisations like Mahendra Singh Tikait-founded Bharatiya Kisan Sangh and Shetkari Sanghatana established by Sharad Joshi, known for launching powerful movements in the past, are rarely heard and spoken about these days.
Political Re-Alignment
- Ajit Singh’s RLD and the ruling Samajwadi Party have sealed a deal ahead of the Uttar Pradesh polls 2017.
- Merger suggests the political trend
of kisan politics on the decline.
- While 15 million people have left farming in last 20 years since 1991, only 5 parliamentarians in the 16th Lok Sabha
claim to be farmers.
- Ajit Singh faces the same existential crisis that saw other farmer leaders like Om Prakash Chautala and HD Deve Gowda resigned to oblivion.
Fewer Farmers Getting Elected to Parliament
Something has changed that has made kisan politics less lucrative. The first Lok Sabha had 87 members with an agriculture background. That number rose to 261 in the 12th Lok Sabha.
The occupational profile of 15th Lok Sabha reveals that 222 members claimed themselves to be agriculturists and 25 of them are farmers. The present Lok Sabha has only 39 members who call themselves agriculturists and just 5 would like themselves to be known as farmers.
The signs of change are many and most of them detrimental to the interests of farmers. From shrinking of operational land holding, to tepid farm growth; from muted growth in yield per hectare, to falling price realisation (yes, falling price realisation after 1991-92 despite periods of very high food inflation), the terms of trade have definitely gone against farmers. And diminishing economic clout has made farmers a less lucrative constituency for politicians.
Farmers Have Lost Numbers and Economic Clout
Despite four episodes of very high food inflation running for months, the average food inflation in the period after 1993 has been 7.86 percent, which is 2.5 percentage points lower than what was the average in the 1980s. The 1980s was the time when agriculture grew at its fastest clip, owing to the adoption of high-yield variety seeds and increasing use of fertilisers after the launch of the green revolution. But that did not result in moderation in prices. The growth in the post-reform period has been more subdued, but prices too have been more stable.
High food inflation doesn’t necessarily mean bumper price realisation for farmers for what they produce. But it does indicate that they are getting competitive price. High food price inflation, though bad for consumers, does give economic muscle to farmers. A stable price regime is not very good news for cultivators.
What has made the kisan constituency even less lucrative, is the falling number of cultivators. The 80s was a high watermark of kisan politics, and saw an addition of a record 20 million people to cultivators’ ranks. However, in the two decades since 1991, 15 million people left farming, depleting the ranks of farmer-cultivators.
Given the way things have panned out in the last two decades, kisan politics is a game of diminishing returns. No wonder Ajit Singh and many others like him have found themselves at an existential crisis. The choice before them is to either reorient themselves, or face gradual extinction. By constantly shifting alliance, Ajit Singh is perhaps looking for a winning formula.
(The writer is Consulting Editor, Business Standard, and contributes regularly to The Quint on politics and contemporary issues)
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(On Kisan Diwas, The Quint reposts this piece on Kisan politics from our archives, originally published on 3 June 2016)
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