It is a bolt from the blue for the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
The tragic death of 66-year-old Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar in a plane crash is set to have far-reaching consequences for Maharashtra’s already turbulent politics. His NCP is suddenly leaderless and rudderless, a situation that could well work to the advantage of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The controversial but formidable leader was the tallest of the Marathas in the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti and was brought into politics by his estranged uncle Sharad Pawar, long hailed as the Maratha strongman, more than four decades ago.
The NCP under Ajit drew much of its strength from the dominant Maratha community, particularly in resource-rich western Maharashtra. But beyond him, the party lacks a towering personality.
Though former Union Minister Praful Patel is the working President of the party at the national level and therefore the 'Number 2', he is focused more on the politics at the Centre ever since the NCP was united under Sharad Pawar.
Maharashtra NCP chief Sunil Tatkare is currently the party’s lone Lok Sabha MP. Ajit’s wife, Sunetra, became a member of the Rajya Sabha last year with the support of the BJP after she lost the 2024 Lok Sabha polls from Baramati to Supriya Sule, daughter of Sharad Pawar. Ajit has two sons, Jay and Parth, who had unsuccessfully contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Khed in the Pune district.
A Party Without a Natural Successor
Ajit’s death has come at a time when the BJP has already begun making inroads into traditional Pawar strongholds—from municipal council polls to the recently concluded municipal corporation elections, and now the Zilla Parishad contests.
In fact, Ajit was coming to his pocket borough of Baramati for campaigning in the polls when the mishap occurred.
His death also coincides with a moment when tentative moves towards unity between the NCP and the faction led by Sharad Pawar were in the air, ostensibly for the larger political good. The two factions had even contested together in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal corporation elections.
The tragedy is that even if the two factions unite under the present unusual circumstances, it is unlikely to become a running concern, politically. Now in his mid-eighties, Sharad Pawar no longer has the stamina to provide sustained leadership during challenging times. Though he once became Maharashtra’s youngest chief minister, nearly half a century has passed since, and the political landscape has fundamentally changed.
Supriya might be the de facto 'Number 2' in the NCP faction led by her father, but is seen more as an effective Parliamentarian than an organiser or a political strategist.
Unity Talks Come Too Late
Three years ago, Ajit split the NCP to join the Maharashtra government, then led by Eknath Shinde.
The move came a few days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at a rally in Madhya Pradesh, referred to Ajit’s alleged involvement in the Rs 70,000 crore irrigation scam, which has been a long-standing controversy in Maharashtra politics.
Ajit was a brash but competent minister who knew the inside out of the government's functioning unlike anyone else in the present dispensation. The bureaucracy was careful to stay on the right side of a leader, known for his curt manner and sharp administrative instincts.
Ajit was also the senior-most in the state cabinet, with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis a relative greenhorn before him, and the other Deputy CM, Eknath Shinde, also junior to him in both politics and age.
The Deputy CM Who Never Became Chief Minister
For Ajit Pawar, the chief minister’s post remained perpetually just out of reach. He will be remembered for holding the office of Deputy Chief Minister across multiple governments, but never making it to the top job. In that sense, his political fate mirrors that of LK Advani, often described as India’s prime minister-in-waiting.
A shrewd Sharad Pawar ensured that during the 15-year Congress-NCP rule in Maharashtra beginning in 1999, the Congress retained the Chief Ministership even when the NCP had more numbers. Senior Pawar knew that his leadership would be in the doldrums if he allowed his ambitious nephew to take the reins of power in the state.
Ajit, on his part, remained content to be a leader in Maharashtra and never aspired for a role in New Delhi. He remained happy over the carte blanche given by the uncle to run the state. With this arrangement, he always remained in the shadow of his uncle, known as one of the most networked leaders in independent India.
Even if a united NCP were to withdraw support from the Devendra Fadnavis government, it would have little impact on the BJP-led dispensation, which remains comfortably placed.
Why the BJP is Poised to Absorb the NCP
Ajit’s followers are now likely to scatter and run helter-skelter, with many of them gravitating towards the BJP for greener pastures. A senior minister like Chhagan Bhujbal, who is the OBC face of the party, has been speaking the BJP language for long and was reportedly inducted into the ministry by Fadnavis and not Ajit.
As one political observer put it bluntly, “Ultimately, the BJP will eat up the NCP.”
The BJP understands the art of thanda karke khao—there is no hurry to swallow an opponent whole. Like a python, it takes its time, knowing that escape is unlikely once the grip tightens. Politics, after all, is cold-blooded.
There might be tears shed over the untimely departure of the Deputy Chief Minister, as the moment demands. That is all. The BJP knows the NCP is now up for grabs.
(Sunil Gatade is a former Associate Editor of the Press Trust of India. Venkatesh Kesari is an independent journalist. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)