Bihar Assembly Elections: Why 'Begging' for Alliance Makes AIMIM Look Weak

This is a Counterview written in response to a View previously published by The Quint regarding AIMIM's fortunes in the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections in Bihar. Read the View here.Independent journalist Asad Ashraf recently wrote a piece for The Quint arguing that the Opposition alliance Mahagathbandhan is somehow weakening itself by refusing to include Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in its fold.He writes that AIMIM’s Bihar unit, led by Akhtarul Iman, has formally appealed to join the Mahagathbandhan, the Opposition's grand alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress, three Left and other small parties in Bihar. But what Iman has done in the last two weeks can hardly qualify as a formal appeal. It looks more like begging for survival.On 11 September, he led party workers, accompanied by a posse of drummers to RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav’s residence in Patna’s Circular Road and began singing in chorus, “Lalu-Tejashwi apne kaanon ko khol, tere darwaze par baj raha hai dhol, gathbandhan ke liye apna darwaza khol, varna khul jaayega tere MY samikaran ka pol (Lalu-Tejashwi, open your ears, drums are beating at your doorstep. Open your door for the alliance, otherwise the truth of your Muslim-Yadav equation will be exposed).”There are also reports of AIMIM workers forcibly entering Rahul Gandhi’s Voter Adhikar Yatra last month and Tejashwi Yadav’s ongoing Bihar Adhikar Yatra, creating chaos with the same demand.By resorting to these antics, AIMIM is presenting itself as a weak political option and undermining its own, “Haq chheen kar lenge” (We will snatch our rights) narrative. A powerful leader would sit across the table to negotiate an alliance, not beat drums at doorsteps. After all, it is not some demand from the government.This raises the first question that Asad failed to address in his piece. Has AIMIM really been able to establish itself as a representative of Bihar’s 17.7 percent Muslims in its 10 years of turbulent foray into Bihar politics?Splitting the Split: How Bihar Mahagathbandhan Weakens Itself by Excluding AIMIMThe party entered Bihar during the 2015 Assembly elections, contesting six seats spread over Kishanganj, Purnia, Katihar and Araria, collectively known as Seemanchal. Only party chief Akhtarul Iman could save his deposit, and collectively the party secured just 8.04 percent of the votes in those seats.Four years later in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the party contested only in the Kishanganj constituency, comprising all four Assembly seats of Kishanganj district and two from adjacent Purnia. The party could lead only in Kochadhaman and Bahadurganj.AIMIM tasted its first victory later that year when it won the Kishanganj Assembly bypoll, but lost the seat just nine months later in the 2020 Assembly elections. It won five seats then, four of them in Kishanganj Lok Sabha constituency and one in Araria.AIMIM contested on 20 seats as part of the Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF) led by Upendra Kushwaha, with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) as another prominent ally. The party polled 14.28 percent of the total votes in these constituencies, but apart from the five wins, it managed to save its deposit in only one other seat and failed to even cross 10 percent in many parts of its supposed bastion, Seemanchal.Seemanchal, as often misunderstood by armchair experts, is not limited to Kishanganj and its neighbouring constituencies. Out of the 24 Assembly constituencies in Seemanchal, 11 are currently represented by Muslim MLAs, just as in 2015. What changed between 2015 and 2020 was the availability of an alternative. Amour, Baisi, and Bahadurganj had long been waiting for change, and AIMIM became that option. Kochadhaman and Jokihat, which have the highest Muslim populations, were slightly different cases. In Kochadhaman, AIMIM’s main rival was a Muslim candidate from the NDA. In Jokihat, long a stronghold of RJD stalwart late Taslimuddin’s family, party affiliation hardly matters.The 2024 Lok Sabha election was a litmus test for AIMIM. Four of its MLAs and one former MLA had already defected to the RJD, leaving the party with only Iman as a known face. Despite Owaisi’s repeated attempts to gain sympathy by accusing his MLAs of betrayal, AIMIM failed to regain voter trust. The party could lead only in Kochadhaman and Bahadurganj, as in 2019, but even there its number of votes got reduced. In his own Amour constituency, Iman only managed around half the votes he received in 2020.This shows that AIMIM has consistently failed to maintain Muslim support even in Seemanchal, which accounts for around 28 percent of Bihar’s Muslims. It has virtually no electoral appeal among the 72 percent Muslims living in the rest of Bihar.There is no doubt that Muslims in Bihar need better leadership and greater representation. That makes AIMIM’s presence relevant. But has AIMIM been able to provide better Muslim leadership than parties like the RJD, the Congress, and the Left?Among the six MLAs who have won on AIMIM tickets so far, three were former MLAs. The others also had long associations with the RJD or the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] before joining AIMIM.From the start, the party avoided giving tickets to loyal grassroots workers in winnable seats, preferring leaders imported from other parties, sometimes even at the very last minute.If AIMIM truly wanted to build Muslim leadership, it needed to invest in its own cadre. Had the party managed to retain its MLAs, it would not be begging for alliances today. Even if not part of a formal alliance, the Mahagathbandhan might have at least considered an informal understanding.Failing to keep its leader in the fold for long has created mistrust among Muslims toward AIMIM. Not only did party MLAs, local leaders and workers left, but even ally partner Upendra Kushwaha, who was projected as the CM face of the Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF) alliance and another prominent ally, Devendra Prasad Yadav, quickly shifted to the NDA fold when the alliance collapsed. Imported candidates and alliances of convenience may work once, but it cannot be repeated again and again.Some may argue that Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) is in a similar position. His party won four seats as part of the NDA in 2020, but all three MLAs (one MLA died) later defected to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). None of them even belonged to the Mallah community, claimed to be Sahani’s base. Sahani himself lost both the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2020 Assembly elections. Yet, VIP is part of the Mahagathbandhan, while AIMIM is not.The reason is simple. Sahani, much like the late Ram Vilas Paswan, is ideologically flexible. He bargains with the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan depending on the offer. AIMIM does not have that flexibility. Its only pragmatic option is to prove its strength on the ground instead of pleading.House of Yadavs: How Tejashwi Yadav is Building His Own Political BrandBut AIMIM seems unwilling to learn. Consumed by anger against its so-called traitors, the party has compromised again.The party's first announced candidate for the 2025 Assembly election is Tausif Alam, a four-time Congress MLA from Bahadurganj. During his two decades in the Congress, Alam often worked against the party’s own Lok Sabha candidates. He openly criticised the Congress nominee in front of Mallikarjun Kharge during the 2024 campaign and was reported to have cross-voted in a Rajya Sabha bypoll. He is also the son-in-law of AIMIM turncoat MLA Izhar Asfi, one of the four who defected to the RJD. In Bahadurganj, people are saying it took the four AIMIM MLAs less than two years to leave the party. If Tausif wins, it may take him less than two days.It is also worth noting that AIMIM’s Bihar chief has demanded only six seats in the alliance. Most likely these will be the ones where AIMIM has already tested victory: Kishanganj, Kochadhaman, Bahadurganj, Amour, Baisi and Jokihat.Let us look at the current scenario in these seats.Kishanganj, home constituency of MP Mohammad Jawaid, is a Congress stronghold, where sitting MLA Izharul Hussain and former AIMIM MLA Qamrul Hoda are both vying for Congress ticket. AIMIM does not have a face strong enough to challenge this trio.In Kochadhaman, Izhar Asfi and a former JD(U) MLA Mujahid Alam are seeking RJD’s ticket, and AIMIM again has no face to challenge them.In Baisi, both sitting MLA Syed Ruknuddin Ahmad and former MLA Abdus Subhan want RJD tickets, while AIMIM has brought back its 2015 candidate, who had managed just over 10 percent of the vote then.Jokihat will again see a battle between Taslimuddin’s sons Shahnawaz and Sarfraz. Shahnawaz is the incumbent RJD MLA and Sarfraz is yet to join any party. Amour and Bahadurganj are only two seats so far where AIMIM has faces which can harm Mahagathbandhan.During Owaisi's four-day visit to Seemanchal, which started on 24 September, he will attempt to revive his support base, but it remains to be seen how many familiar faces share the stage with him.As for the argument of splitting Muslim votes, that is a debate with no end. Even if the Mahagathbandhan includes AIMIM in the alliance, rebel candidates will seek other options to contest.Last year, the RJD lost its bastion in Belaganj, Gaya, to JD(U) by about 21,000 votes in bypoll. Jan Suraaj Party (JSP)’s Muslim candidate Mohammad Amjad got 17,000 votes, while AIMIM’s Zamin Ali got 3,500. Does this mean the JSP can dent Muslim votes in Magadh and harm Mahagathbandhan? Of course not. Those were Amjad’s personal votes, as he has been a runner-up in this seat three times.Similarly, in Katihar’s Pranpur seat, Congress candidate Tauquir Alam lost to the BJP by just 3,000 votes in 2020. Here, an independent Muslim candidate got 20,000 votes, while AIMIM’s candidate received only 500.As Tejashwi Yadav recently claimed in an interview, Owaisi has not even made a formal telephonic call to either Lalu Prasad Yadav or him for alliance. Is this because AIMIM is certain it will not be included in the alliance? Are these theatrics merely an eyewash so that during the elections AIMIM can argue: We wanted an alliance, but they refused. We do not wish to split Muslim votes, yet the Mahagathbandhan has left us with no choice?(Tanzil Asif is a Seemanchal-based journalist and founder of Bihar-based hyper-local news platform Main Media. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)Nitish's Real Legacy is His Inability to Lift Bihar From the Morass of Poverty

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