The ongoing visit of acting Taliban Minister of Commerce and Industry, Nooruddin Azizi, to India has raised eyebrows across the world. But it isn't actually surprising. This is the second high-profile visit of a Taliban official to India within a short span of time. In October, the acting Foreign Minister Mullah Amir Khan Muttaqi had paid an official visit to India, becoming the first Taliban Minister to visit the country.
Azizi's visit comes against worsening Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. The two neighbouring countries have been embroiled in conflict for a number of months now, but with renewed intensity since Muttaqi's India visit. As Muttaqi was meeting officials in Delhi, Pakistan launched airstrikes on Afghanistan, accusing it of harbouring the Tehreek e Taliban, which has launched a war on Pakistan for establishment of sharia law.
Afghanistan has refuted the allegations and launched a counter-attack. The conflict quickly escalated, and two rounds of negotiations in Istanbul have not yielded any result. Just days ago, the Pakistan Army killed 38 TTP fighters near the Afghan border. On its part, Afghanistan has asked Pakistan to not allow what it alleges are US drone strikes from Pakistan's territory. Pakistan says it is unable of halting such strikes.
Border Closures Force a Trade Rethink
A major outcome of the conflict has been the closure of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan and the halt of cross-border trade. The frequent closure of the Torkham border crossing especially has hit trade hard as Afghanistan is a landlocked country and historically has been dependent on Pakistan for trade and transit routes.
Over the years, a variety of factors made Pakistan the largest source of imports into Afghanistan, to a tune of an estimated $2 billion. That is now set to change as the difficulties resulting from the border closures have made the Taliban look for alternative routes and markets.
India has a big role to play here, as it has always been a very attractive market for Central Asian countries. Afghanistan is no exception.
India and Iran Step In
In order to reduce its economic dependence on Pakistan, Afghanistan is primarily looking at Iran and India for its exports as well as for imports. In fact, reports say that Taliban officials have given traders three months to settle accounts with Pakistan and find alternative routes, signalling a strategic shift in regional commerce.
For instance, Abdul Salam Jawad, spokesperson for Ministry of Industry and Commerce, told Reuters that in the past six months, trade with Iran reached $1.6 billion, surpassing $1.1 billion in trade with Pakistan during the same period. Similarly, data from Afghanistan’s trade ministry shows that India has emerged as Afghanistan’s largest export market in the past month—exactly during the same period when the border with Pakistan has been closed—importing goods worth $103.9 million of total Afghanistan 's exports of $274.9 million.
This has primarily been through the Chabahar port, highlighting once again the strategic importance and the farsightedness of this port project. Lying on Iran's eastern Sistan-Balochistan coast, the port developed by India, specifically to connect to Afghanistan and Central Asia bypassing Pakistan, has been operational since a 2016 tripartite agreement between India, Iran, and Afghanistan.
India had also financed and built the 215 kms long Zaranj-Delaram highway in Afghanistan to connect to Iran, at a cost of 600 crore rupees. The port also offers Afghan traders very favourable terms: Iran has installed upgraded equipment and X-ray scanners at the port to streamline processes for Afghan cargo; Afghan traders receive a 30 percent reduction on port tariffs, and a 75 percent discounted storage fees, low anchorage costs, and so.
Understanding that the Chabahar port was considered critical for stabilising Afghanistan, as also the fact that this was the route India used to bypass Pakistan and send humanitarian aid to the country, the US had excerpted it from sanctions which it reimposed on Iran under the first administration of President Donald Trump.
Sanctions Cloud the Port’s Future
Since 2018, the port's operations have been managed by the New Delhi-backed India Ports Global Limited (IPGL). Last year, finally, India signed a 10-year contract for the operation of the Chabahar port is a bold and strategic step for many reasons. Chabahar's potential as a conduit between India and Central Asia was not lost on other countries and those like Armenia, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan also soon signed up to the port project.
However, the current administration of President Trump once again posed sanctions on Chabahar earlier this year. This was perplexing since Iran conducts at least eighty percent of its trade through its west coast port of Bandar Abbas port and not through Chabahar. Therefore, if the intent was to hurt Iran, then it made no sense to sanction Chabahar and not Bandar Abbas. The sanctions have been waived off recently for six months. This means they can be reimposed again.
During his ongoing India visit, Azizi emphasised the effective use of Chabahar Port, and called on the US to exempt it from sanctions. He also called for development of infrastructure projects, including the establishment of dry ports in Nimroz, bordering Iran, and the launch of regular shipping lines in Chabahar, including the use of India's Neve Sheva port.
India’s Stakes in Afghanistan’s Recovery
India is crucial for Afghanistan’s economy. It offers Afghanistan the largest market for its exports which all the neighbouring countries put together cannot. The war torn country is struggling economically—its frozen reserves to the tune of $9 billion is frozen in foreign banks. Natural disasters have further debilitated its economy.
A recent UN survey found that Afghanistan requires $128.8 million for reconstruction of its eastern provinces recently hit by a devastating earthquake. Afghanistan needs investments in almost all sectors — infrastructure, agriculture, mining, food processing, pharmaceuticals.
At an earlier forum in a Central Asian capital, this writer had met and heard Azizi expounding to an international audience the steps his government was taking to tackle corruption and ease norms gor doing business there, and, more interestingly, trying to advance women's entrepreneurship.
Countries like Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Kazakhstan were already engaging in doing robust business with Afghanistan. But India scores over them with its proximity, cultural affiliations, and the deep bonds and trust it enjoys with the Afghan people bolstered over decades with India's earlier engagement with developmental and capacity building work in Afghanistan — from dams to schools.
Even when the Taliban took over Kabul in 2021 and chaos ensued, India had continued its supply of humanitarian aid, despite its then limited outreach to the Taliban.
Why Chabahar Still Matters Most
Afghanistan is a resource-rich country, situated at the heart of the Eurasian landmass, a natural bridge between Central and South Asia. In Delhi, both sides agreed to expand economic and trade cooperation, attract investment, and create new opportunities for the development of trade between Afghanistan and India.
Reports say that trade attaches will also soon be placed in the diplomatic missions of both countries. Both countries have pledged to initiate air freight corridors between themselves. This would certainly help advance trade but it cannot be a substitute for Chabahar port which offers a far cheaper and cost effective freight route between both countries.
For India, helping to stabilise the Afghan economy is equally important. The Taliban 2.0 are desperate to consolidate their position in Kabul for which improving the economy is crucial. They wish to cultivate positive relations with all regional countries for trade and development. They are, thus, willing to guarantee security for the region.
India's involvement in Afghanistan's economy will help significantly reduce the latter's economic dependence on Pakistan. But, such engagement should not be conditioned only by the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
India can this use trade and investments in exchange for security from Afghanistan, and gain a foothold in the region, important after its loss of the Ayni airbase in neighbouring Tajikistan. In the same vein, India can further access Central Asian markets and resources through Afghanistan. And all of this would require sustained Indian engagement with the Chabahar port project.
(The author is an award-winning journalist specialising on Eurasian affairs. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)