In a keenly watched, landmark judgement, beleaguered Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was disqualified by the Supreme Court of his country on Friday from holding office, on charges of financial transgression.
A few hours later, Mr Nawaz Sharif tendered his resignation to uphold the sanctity of the law, though he rejected the charges levelled against him.
These charges of amassing disproportionate assets through off-shore companies against Sharif and his family members were first revealed in 2016, in what is referred to as the “Panama Papers” leak.
Sharif's Exit Has Varied Implications for Indo-Pak Relations
While avenues for appealing against this verdict are being explored, it may be valid to presume that the active and effective political trajectory of Sharif has now hit a legal glass-ceiling, and the Opposition parties, led by the mercurial cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, will seek to consolidate their electoral advantage in the domestic tumultuous political arena.
As in the past, a dominant political actor will emerge with the tacit support of the military in Rawalpindi and through some degree of cooperation with the Islamist clergy, that has different degrees of affiliation with the Pakistani political constituency.
In summary, the future course that Pakistani politics will take after the resignation of Nawaz Sharif as PM has varied implications for India – and the already troubled bilateral relationship.
Traditionally, India has been more concerned about the three strands that impact its national security, and these are all controlled by the Pakistan military headquarters – namely, the nuclear weapon capability, support to terror groups directed against India, and the internal dynamic in the Kashmir valley.
The historical track record suggests that when there is some degree of political turbulence or uncertainty in Pakistan – as is the current case – the probability of anti-India activity triggered by the Rawalpindi-Muridke nexus increases.
The latter location is the equivalent of the headquarters of groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba et al.
A Post-Sharif Pakistan
Two probable options exist for a post-Nawaz Sharif Pakistan.
The more desirable exigency is that there is an uncontested transition, and a new PM is appointed from within the fold of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML) (N), and Pakistan prepares for the next general election in 2018 – and a fresh mandate is sought from the Pakistani electorate.
It appears that Shahbaz Sharif - the Chief Minister of the Punjab province and brother of Mr. Nawaz Sharif will be the next PM of Pakistan.
The other path – with a higher degree of probability, is a contested tussle for leadership within the PML(N), where the mantle may not be passed on within the Sharif family, and other leaders may stake a claim to the PM’s chair.
Should this unspool, the role of the Pakistan military will become more dominant and hence, the inherently anti-India orientation within the state and the society.
For all his shortcomings, Nawaz Sharif represented the most credible face of the civilian political spectrum in Pakistan and his own disastrous engagement with former Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf post 1999 had revealed the various institutional infirmities within his nation.
Consequently Sharif, though often tripped up by his own judiciary and military – apart from his political opponents, was the best bet for Pakistan to return to some semblance of civilian rule – and the military was encouraged to stay within the Rawalpindi barracks.
The Curtain Falls on a Chapter in Pak’s Politics
My personal assessment, albeit preliminary at this stage, is that if the Pakistan military becomes the kingmaker in the currently uncertain domestic political context – then both India and Afghanistan will be more likely to be negatively impacted.
The level of sectarian violence in Pakistan has seen no significant decline, and the attack in Lahore on 24 July is a case in point.
In the event of a long drawn out phase of political uncertainty in Pakistan – the motivation for the extremist/ terror groups and their Islamist support base to act autonomously – and audaciously will increase. This kind of a pattern will have a negative impact for India – both along the LoC and within the Kashmir valley – that is already simmering with high levels of discontent.
The inglorious departure of Nawaz Sharif on Friday from a chair that he occupied three times with jagged degrees of unease, brings the curtain down on one chapter of Pakistani politics. What follows remains opaque, and uncertain – for now.
(Soon after this article was written, Nawaz Sharif’s younger brother Shehbaz Sharif was announced as Pakistan’s next Prime Minister.)
(The writer is a leading expert on strategic affairs. He is currently Director, Society for Policy Studies. He can be reached @theUdayB. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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