The Modi-Trump summit played out rather well for the Indian side as the unpredictability of the host, the US, had forced the government to keep public expectations low ahead of the visit. In private, it appears the MEA had prepared a threefold strategy.
The first was to skirt the issue likely to irritate Trump – the H1B visas – which he had demonised as part of his electoral strategy.
The second was to appear as a keen buyer of defence wares and even nuclear reactors from a defunct Westinghouse, with no operational reactor of the model being offered to India for testing or examination by insurance underwriters of the safety of the equipment.
The third was to stave off pressure from the US to balance trade, mostly in India's favour, by agreeing to review bilateral trade and economic links.
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Mixed Signals
In exchange, Trump extended a mix of hinted signals on strategic convergence with India and protocol gestures. The latter saw Trump family lined up for ceremonial array at the South Porch reception and press event. The strategic convergence was hinged on playing the right notes on Pakistan, terror and most importantly China.
Listing Syed Salahuddin by the State Department – his group Hizbul Mujahideen having been proscribed in the past – as a global terrorist endorsed the Indian stand that those masquerading as political supporters of Kashmiri cause were nothing but masterminds sponsoring terror in the Valley.
It was probably embarrassing for Pakistan as its principal instrument for political outreach to disparate elements in the Valley opposing India was demonised but it is unlikely to affect State collaboration with that group or its leader.
In any case, China’s immediate issuance of a good conduct certificate to Pakistan, dubbing it a victim of and fighter against terror would have neutralised whatever caution the Indo-US Joint Statement may have elicited in the mind of Pakistani deep state.
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Can India Rely on Trump’s Promises?
- PM Modi visited the US with a threefold strategy – no discussion on H1B visas, going ahead with nuclear deal and review of bilateral trade.
- Syed Salahuddin being declared as a global terrorist by the US is embarrassing for Pakistan.
- China continues to back Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts despite the India-US joint statement on cross-border terror.
- US seems to have weighed in India’s favour by raising concerns about China’s ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative.
- Review of bilateral economic and trade relations would mean India losing out on the front of intellectual rights.
Addressing Some Concerns
On China, it was important for the US to reiterate the decade-and-a-half old tacit assumption that a stronger India was in the US’ interests and necessary to balance the rise of Beijing. Furthermore, it was a condition deemed necessary for a stable Asian security order.
The Joint Statement implicitly conveys this support by emphasising on a rule-based order compliant with international law. To state that connectivity projects should be financially transparent and mindful of sovereignty concerns of other nations was echoing Indian objections to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.
Commencing the subtitle of one section with the moniker, “Democratic Stalwarts” would have riled China as it would have reminded them of the one and only meeting of the Quad in 2006, consisting of Australia, Japan, India and US at the senior official level. China had then reacted with visible indignation over the coming together of a value-based organisation from which it stood excluded.
Painful Concessions
The troublesome concession by India is to concede to the review of bilateral economic and trade relations.
India will be left to plead for level playing field on the movement of workers and freer transfer of technologies. The crucial test will be how “America First” is balanced against “Make in India”. The lure of Indian market will have to be used to make co-production a workable proposition.
Don’t Take the US For Granted
India’s calculation, perhaps, was to buy time as it both gives us time to prepare for new ways of doing international business as well as waiting for Trump to be bogged down in domestic or international quagmires. Meanwhile already tense relations with China and Pakistan are getting testier. China, already edgy after Dalai Lama’s Arunachal Pradesh tour, has now a stand-off with Indian troops at the crucial Sikkim-Bhutan-China border.
The Kashmir Valley is witnessing increased civil unrest, as was expected without political outreach. Internally gau rakshaks are on a rampage. To India's west, the Islamic world is on the edge due to Saudi-UAE confrontation with Qatar.
Trump is associated with a factor of instability having upturned Obama’s Iran, China and Indo-Pacific policies. Good words of tacit reassurance in joint statements cannot be assumed as open-ended support for India in its face-off with the Sino-Pak alliance.
Nor should Trump be taken as a transient president as his support in Washington may be shallow but he is popular amongst the white middle and working classes. Modi played his cards well in Washington but the game has just begun.
(The writer is former secretary, Ministry of External Affairs. He can be reached @ambkcsingh. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)