Dear Donald Trump, Mike Pence and Nikki Haley, and the rest of the White House administration,
Here’s what you need to know about mediation between India and Pakistan: It will never happen.
Because India will never agree to it.
The US envoy to the UN, Nikki Haley, answered a question by a reporter on whether the US would nudge Pakistan and India towards peace talks:
I think that will be something that you will see members of the [US] national security council participate in, but also wouldn’t be surprised if the President participates in that as well.
The Indian response was swift and unsurprising: The spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MOEA) said the government’s position on talks “in an environment free of terror and violence hasn’t changed”, reiterating that Pakistan “continues to be the single biggest threat to peace and stability in our region and beyond.”
Meanwhile – again, expectedly – Pakistan’s ambassador to the US, Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry, welcomed the suggestion, telling Dawn that Pakistan wants “good neighbourly relations with India.”
Messy Divorce Proceedings
Now imagine a divorced couple, living next door to each other, but still fighting over custody of the kids. They accuse each other of infidelity and poor parenting, sometimes lobbing insults and rotten eggs at each other over the fence. Imagine another house, a mansion, where the community’s influential family lives. The rich family doesn’t want the loud fighting at odd hours of the night and doesn’t want the smell of sulphuric eggs-gone-bad plastered on the roadside stinking up the neighbourhood. But the husband calls his wife names and says that until she stops sleeping around, a custody settlement is out of the question. The wife says, well, you’re a bully and pay my servants to spy on me, but let’s talk anyway.
The Ex-Wife
Pakistan has repeatedly demonstrated willingness, for instance when Pakistan’s Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz (a rather long-winded title for a de facto foreign minister) told an Indian newspaper that Pakistan would talk – about terrorism too – but within the framework of a comprehensive dialogue. Essentially, it means the ball is in India’s court.
“Peace requires dialogue, any issues can be discussed across the table than through the media. If we do not have structured dialogue, then the dialogue through media increases hostility and increases negative perceptions,” Aziz said.
Aziz said all this while in Amritsar to participate in the Heart of Asia conference last December. The Pakistani media gleefully played up how the advisor was subsequently snubbed and insulted by India.
It was meant to be an ice-breaker after a year of rising temperatures after attacks on Pathankot, Uri, Nagrota, and last summer’s insurrection in Kashmir.
Sartaj Aziz seemed rather like the wife who goes to a party at her ex-husband’s house to which she was invited but not welcome. She stands awkwardly in a corner, sipping a cocktail, making polite conversation and hoping just being there would be enough.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has played it a little more cool, though. More recently, in Turkey this February, the Pakistani PM said bashing India for political gain was a thing of the past.
We [Pakistan and India] should maintain good relations and avoid involving in conspiracies against each other.
The Ex-Husband
Here’s what the Indian response to Sartaj Aziz’s overture was:
We have not received any requests for talks. India is always open for talks, but they obviously cannot be held with continued terrorism.Indian MEA Spokesperson to reporters in New Delhi
Cold as ice.
Meanwhile in Pakistan, chatter had been that now, with UP firmly in Modi’s grip, the Pakistan-as-the-enemy campaign rhetoric is not needed anymore, and it may be time for a thaw – maybe even talks.
But here’s what Pakistan has learnt in the past few years: Narendra Modi’s overtures to Pakistan have been self-serving, and inconsistent. For instance, gate-crashing PM Nawaz’s granddaughter’s wedding, and then trying to internationally isolate Pakistan. It’s as if the ex-husband has a jealous and nagging girlfriend on the side, and her name is Hindutva.
The Family of Elders
When Donald Trump was president-elect, a Pakistani-American facilitated a phone-call between the Pakistani Prime Minister and Trump. The rather unconventional read-out of the call indicated President Trump would be willing to help Pakistan sort out “outstanding problems.” While the world wondered whether the telephonic exchange ought to be taken seriously or mocked, US Vice President Mike Pence said in an interview that President Trump’s “extraordinary deal-making skills” could help resolve the Kashmir issue.
It fits in with Trump’s projection as the outsider, the maverick businessman who gets things done. Only, his failed push for Trumpcare, and bizarre “one state, two state” mantra at a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Israel and Palestine, hasn’t inspired much confidence. The art of the deal? Not so much.
Finally, India has never accepted third-party mediation after the 1971 War, even resisting the World Bank’s arbitration in water disputes this January.
If that rich family in the mansion thinks money and a tweeting patriarch can get the exes in a meet cute again, they’d best remember that there is far too much relationship baggage. It’s complicated.
(Amber Shamsi is a multimedia journalist who has worked for international and national media organisations as a reporter and on the editorial desk. She currently hosts a news and current affairs show on Dawn TV. She can be reached @AmberRShamsi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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