While five states prepare for the Assembly polls, all eyes are set on Uttar Pradesh where the Yadav clan is already being ravaged by internal feud. Despite all the election hullabaloo, Bihar is a topic of discussion, even though it’s not part of any imminent elections.
Of late, there has been constant chatter of the increasing intimacy between the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Analysts, who understand the politics at play between the two leaders and their long-term effects, speculate that there is a possibility of a BJP-JDU coalition.
Nitish is expected to sever ties with the RJD in UP and instead join forces with the BJP. However, neither Modi nor Nitish have responded to any of these speculations in any manner so far.
On the occasion of Guru Govind Singh’s 350th anniversary, a fairly elaborate function was organised in Patna. During the event, not only did Nitish Kumar and PM Modi share the same stage, but both leaders also generously praised each other.
Right before this, Nitish had praised the Modi government’s decision to implement note ban and had advised him to attack undisclosed property. In such a scenario, the idea of a growing fondness of the two political factions seemed even more likely.
Obstacles on the Way to a Coalition
There might be chatter about a BJP-JDU coalition within the alleys of politics, but the achievement of this reality is far from easy. There are a couple of concrete reasons for it.
What Will Happen of the Fight Against ‘Communal Powers’?
Nitish had parted ways from the BJP citing the will to fight ‘communal powers’ as the reason. If now he chooses to join hands with the party, he will face difficulty in explaining the move to people. Additionally, a seemingly uncertain attitude might cause some serious political harm.
Severing Ties With Lalu Might be a Mistake
After being critics of each others’ political strategies for a long time, when Nitish and Lalu united, some substantial reasons had been cited for the union. Both of them wanted to prevent BJP’s success in Bihar. Political strategists like Prashant Kishor had managed to convince them that ‘unity is power’. The outcome for both parties also turned out to be a positive one.
There is no major obstacle facing Nitish for a government in Uttar Pradesh. As for RJD supremo’s intervention, it isn’t unheard of in a coalition government. Thus the question arises – would Nitish be able to manage severing of ties with Lalu?
...Then How Will the ‘Good Governance Babu’ Become the PM?
Currently, Nitish has influence in the anti-BJP faction. In the coming times, the lead of this alleged anti-BJP ‘third-front’ might make him a potential prime ministerial candidate.
Lalu Prasad cannot contest elections himself because of his case legal entanglements. Mulayam Singh Yadav will eventually hand over the baton to son Akhilesh Yadav. If in this situation, Nitish manages to win over Lalu and Mulayam, he might get the chance to be the candidate.
On the contrary, if Nitish joins hands with the BJP, then he would only be able to maintain his influence over Bihar politics. What would then happen to his ambition of becoming the Prime Minister?
Then What is the Basis of the BJP-JDU Coalition Discussion?
Despite the arguments proposed above, there are several things which suggest that the wall of ice between BJP and JDU might actually thaw. These factors are as follows:
Need of a Strong, Sturdy Companion
In the current situation, Nitish Kumar is on the look-out for an ally who can help him strengthen roots in the national politics, along with being the chief of a regional party.
Despite being given the title of ‘PM Material’, Nitish’s political position has not reached a level he perhaps considers himself capable of achieving, and the BJP can fulfil this goal for him.
Bihar might have the government that involves an RJD-JDU coalition, but analysts have always expressed doubts about its instability.
‘One Old Friend Better Than Two New’
There are rumours of Nitish feeling restricted in running a government with the RJD. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s increasing interference has been a source of displeasure. Perhaps Nitish got reminded of the old adage that one old friend (BJP) is more reliable than two new ones (RJD, Congress).
The assumption for this is a strong one. Nitish and the the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) go way back. He was a Union minister in the NDA government and therefore, a significant part of the government alongside the BJP.
However, right before the previous Lok Sabha elections, Nitish parted ways with the BJP. He was unhappy with Narendra Modi having been given the responsibility of the promotional campaign of the party. Though publicly he cited something else as the reason, deep within the desire for more power was the truth.
A Year’s Experience Not Satisfying
Post the Lok Sabha elections, the ground realities once again led Nitish to join hands with Lalu, but the experience over the last one year has not been too satisfying. ‘Jungle Raj’ Part 2 may not have been able to extend its influence too far, but muscle-men like Shahabuddin making headlines frequently can lead to difficulties for Nitish in the future.
The Right Opportunity For ‘Brand Nitish’ to Shine
Nitish separated himself from the BJP to please minority voters. However, he seems to have failed at achieving this goal. Bihar’s Muslims still consider Lalu Prasad Yadav to be their leader. Thus, Nitish changing his political strategies might be the need of the hour.
Nitish recently extended his support to the Sikh community by celebrating Prakash Parv in a grand manner. At the same time, small though it might be, he also prepared the foundation for his party in the Punjab elections. With this he seems to suggest that he might polish the ‘Brand Nitish’ further in the coming days.
It is imperative to note that as of now, there is only a possibility of a coalition between the BJP and the JDU that has risen. It would be erroneous to assume an expected conclusion. In this context, Lalu’s comment could be remembered:
Chaaniyega jalebi, niklega pakodha.
(Expect something grand, instead end up with something disappointing.)
It is all indeed a play of political conditions. The people, however, are eager to know what does one eventually find when the expectations involve a grand outcome.
(This article was originally published on QuintHindi. It has been translated by Rosheena Zehra.)
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