The battle has gone to an altogether new level now with Prime Minister Narendra Modi dropping enough hints at his Vijaya Dashmi event in Lucknow that he is ready to face any challenge from the opposition when it comes to wooing the most powerful constituency of women.
While the reference to Jatayu as the first one to fight against terrorism hogged all the limelight, what most of us missed in Modi’s Lucknow speech was his emphasis on empowering women. The issue has been mentioned in his customary Maan Ki Baat before. But this was perhaps his maiden attempt at a public event in recent times to forcefully advocate the empowerment theme.
We all know that the PM weighs his words very carefully. It is therefore imperative that this particular reference gets the kind of attention it deserves.
We all know that women are going to play a far bigger role in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. As has been the trend in recent elections, women have begun to stamp their authority more emphatically in elections. They have been more enthusiastic participants in democratic exercises.
The prohibition may turn out to be an issue that appeals to this powerful constituency, cutting across caste, religious and regional divides. And the person who is seen to be making all the noise about this issue is Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
Nitish’s rather inflexible approach has baffled some observers. Development theorists find Nitish’s obsession with prohibition a retrograde step. They question Nitish’s adoption of the theme at the centre of his politics too much to stomach. That too at a time when he is positioning himself for a bigger role outside his home state.
For Modi backers, the outcome of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections is a foregone conclusion. But Modi is not known to underestimate the opposition’s challenge. He is ever alert to any potential challenge that may come up. He is therefore looking for an opportunity to have an issue that is effective, inclusive and more broad-based.
Election manifestos are full of homilies. But the issue that trends and finds resonance is the one that agitates and has the potential to polarise. Prohibition has the potential to become one such issue. Modi therefore has to have a counter-strategy in place in case the issue catches people’s imagination.
The question some people may ask is: since the opposition is a divided house at the moment, who is going to mount a challenge to Modi using the issue of prohibition? However, I think our vibrant democracy and seemingly silent voters have a tendency to surprise most of us. In the midst of what looks like TINA (there is no alternative), it throws up alternatives which we cannot anticipate.
Who looks like they’re up for throwing a challenge to the BJP-led NDA? Rahul Gandhi, Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati or Arvind Kejriwal? The jury is still out. Nitish is the only one whose name crops up because of his image. But his claim lacks the heft of a large party with the potential to win many seats.
For his claim to look credible, he needs to have an excellent equation going with 10 Janpath. He has an alliance with the Congress going in Bihar. But to imagine something like that happening at the national level is less probable, but not impossible.
Modi is perhaps gearing up for that challenge. Free LPG connections to women heads of BPL families, toilets as part of Swachch Bharat, a campaign against female infanticide are some of the women-focussed schemes the Modi government has launched. Celebrating Raksha Bandhan and showcasing his private moments with his mother – these are aimed at wooing the constituency of women.
On the issue of wooing women, NaMo seems to be pitted against NiKu. Some unexpected names may emerge. And if the issue gains momentum, expect polarisation to begin inside households. It is bound to have a decisive impact on elections. Modi therefore does not want to take any chances. His Lucknow speech was a dress rehearsal. Is the renewed debate around triple talaq a follow-up action?
(Sanjay Pugalia is the Editorial Director of Quintillion Media and can be reached at @sanjaypugalia)
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