Unexpected and Dramatic Results:
- Significant outcome of Modi-Nawaz meet was getting the National Security Advisers of India and Pakistan to discuss terror-related issues
- Suggestion for upgrading talks to the NSA level first made by Nawaz Sharif at Modi’s swearing-in ceremony
- Nawaz Sharif has promised to speed up 26/11 trial, it’s unclear whether he will walk the talk
- Pakistan has promised to hand over voice samples of people in Pakistan who were guiding the terrorists during the 26/11 Mumbai attack
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif’s hour-long talk on Friday in the Russian city of Ufa has had unexpected and dramatic results. Both sides kept everything under wraps, so that there was no undue expectations from the first substantive meeting between the two South Asian rivals. For now, the two sides have decided to halt the slide and work cautiously at peace-building.
A significant outcome was getting the National Security Advisers of India and Pakistan to “discuss all issues connected to terror.’’ This is the first time that the discussions would go to the level of the NSAs. Earlier terror was discussed by the foreign secretaries. The meeting will be held in Delhi shortly though dates have not been announced.
India and Pakistan once experimented with a joint anti-terror mechanism but not at such a senior level. Nor did that plan yield any substantive result. The suggestion for upgrading terror talks to the NSA level was first made by Nawaz Sharif, when he met Narendra Modi at his swearing-in May last year.
Terror has been the stumbling block in the bilateral dialogue with neither India nor Pakistan willing to budge. While India has strongly raised the issue of bail granted to 26/11 accused Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, Pakistan has also brought up India’s involvement in Baluchistan. As these issues are handled by the NSAs of both countries, Sharif had suggested they should talk directly on terror.
At today’s talks, security and defence components have been the focus. This is because in the past year or so, firing along the International Border and the Line of Control, has gone up significantly. There were casualties on both sides which further escalated tension between the two countries. The political leadership perhaps now realises the importance of reaching out to each other as an ally on global fora.
This new initiative will perhaps lead to more interaction with the Pakistan’s military at a later stage. Many within the ruling BJP favour direct interaction with the GHQ in Rawalpindi (Pakistan Army Headquarters), who finally call the shots in Pakistan. It is too early to predict if this will finally come about.
The Mumbai terror attacks of 2008, had struck a body blow to India-Pakistan relations. The peace constituency in India has shrunk considerably since then. The fact that the alleged mastermind Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, a top Lashkar-e-Taiba commander and five of his companions, though put on trial, had been let off on bail recently has angered Indians who want some sort of a closure for the affected families.
Will Nawaz Sharif Walk the Talk?
The trial has also been excruciatingly slow, indicating Islamabad’s unwillingness to act against Lakhvi and his friends. Nawaz Sharif has now promised to speed-up the trial, but it is unclear whether he can walk the talk on this one. Nevertheless, Pakistan has also promised to hand over voice samples of people in Pakistan who were guiding the terrorists during the Mumbai attacks. So far, Pakistan had adamantly refused to allow Indian investigators access to voice samples.
All this, if followed through, would lay the groundwork for a period of engagement between the two countries. Once this is done, the rest of the complicated issues like Kashmir, Siachen, trade, Sir Creek will follow. Or perhaps Modi and Sharif would change the format of the talks.
The two sides also agreed on the usual confidence building measurers such as the release of fishermen in each other’s custody within 15-days and facilitating religious tourism. Prime Minister Modi has also promised to attend the SAARC summit which will be held in Islamabad next year.
Prime Minister Modi has pulled a rabbit out of the hat at a time least expected. Pakistan has always maintained that only a right-wing government in India is in a position to make peace with Pakistan. The Congress, as it is well known was forever looking over its shoulder at the BJP when dealing with Pakistan, afraid to be dubbed as pro-Muslim to garner votes. Sharif and Modi seemed to have had a good chemistry after their first meeting in Delhi. Sharif sent a sari as a gift for the PM’s mother. But relations between countries have little to do with personal likes and dislikes of individuals.
The meeting at Ufa has been an ice-breaker, but it is far too early to rejoice. When it comes to India and Pakistan, any small incident can bring the entire process tumbling down. Anti-India outfits are often used by the ISI to disrupt talks.
India-Pakistan relations are complicated with both sides carrying their respective historical baggage. The overarching presence of the Pakistan army in dealing with India further complicates matters.
Promoting trade ties
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who comes from a business background, has always laid great emphasis in promoting trade ties with India. He knows the importance of peace dividends. It is essential for people from both sides to build stakes in the system.
If Sharif can persuade the Pakistan army to allow India MNF status (or whatever other name they wish to use) it has so long denied, it would be a major move in the right direction. A study done by the Indian Council for Research in Economic Relations, says that India-Pakistan trade figures can jump from the current meagre $2.5 billion to an astonishing $25 billion in just over a year if Islamabad gives India MNF status. Perhaps it is too early to talk of this. The best one can hope for at the moment is to build the process step-by-step.
(The writer is a freelance journalist based in New Delhi.)
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