On Election Eve, Biden Narrowly Leads Trump in Florida, Poll Shows

A final Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Monday has Biden leading with 52 percent, while Trump has 44 percent.

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Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

With 96 million people having voted already in the US presidential elections, Democratic nominee Joe Biden seems to hold a narrow yet steady lead over incumbent Republican Donald Trump in the fight to become the next President of the United States of America, a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Monday, 2 November, reports.

The poll appears to show that Biden has a narrow lead over Trump in the battleground state of Florida, while the two are statistically tied in the states of Arizona and North Carolina.

With a credibility interval of 4 points, the final nationwide poll projects figures that favour Biden by 52 percent, while Trump follows with 44 percent. Though previous polls have shown that Trump and Biden tie across three states, this time around, Biden appears to have an outright lead.

Despite clear demarcations of historically red and blue states over the years, the 2020 POTUS election sees six likely swing states, i.e. states that are crucial in tipping the election in favour of either candidate.

The states of Florida, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all hotspots of enthusiastic election campaigns in the final days of the election, for they play a seminal role in determining whether Biden replaces Trump in the oval office.

Executed between 29 October and 2 November, the Reuters poll gained responses from 1,333 adults, including 914 potential voters.

Wisconsin and Michigan see the broadest democratic lead of 10 percent, with 53 percent voters preferring Biden to 43 percent voters supporting Trump in Wisconsin, and 52 percent Biden supporters to 42 percent voting for Trump in Michigan.

This is followed by Pennsylvania’s 7 percent lead, where Biden is popular amongst 51 percent voters while Trump commands 44 percent. The state of Florida, a perennial swing state and deciding factor in the 2020 election, shows Biden ahead by 4 percent, with 50 percent of Florida voting blue and 46 percent voting red.

Based on the Reuters/Ipsos findings, the states of Arizona and North Carolina show neck-and-neck competition between the two candidates, with the former preferring Biden by a mere 2 percent, and the latter only marginally favouring Biden by 1 percent. Both states therefore show a statistically tied race since the margin falls within the polls 4 percent credibility interval.

Most voters in all the aforementioned states also stated that they feel that Biden would handle the COVID-19 pandemic better than Trump, but think that Trump would be a more appropriate choice for managing the economy.

Voters in the US Election do not vote directly for the candidate, but instead for representatives from their states who form the Electoral College. These representatives in turn determine the suitable winner of the election, ultimately determining the 46th President of the United States.

(With inputs from Reuters.)

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