“Bihar has a special quality: every time you think you understand it, it gives you a shock.” The line from Huma Qureshi’s web series Maharani feels particularly apt today. The Bihar election results have delivered a jolt to the Mahagathbandhan — one that even seasoned observers of the state did not see coming.
This is not merely about losing seats, nor about exit polls getting it right. The scale of the defeat carries a serious political message for the alliance.
In 2010, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) recorded its worst-ever performance with just 22 seats. Fifteen years later, it appears to be staring at a similarly bleak outcome. The question now is how and why the Grand Alliance suffered such a decisive setback. This article breaks down the five key reasons.
The NDA is on course to cross 200 of Bihar’s 243 seats. The Grand Alliance — comprising the RJD, Congress and Left parties — looks unlikely to touch even 40. Yet in terms of vote share, the RJD has emerged on top with 22.85 percent, followed by the BJP at 20.44 percent.
1. Delay in Seat Sharing, Lack of Coordination
One of the key reasons behind the Mahagathbandhan’s defeat was the lack of coordination within the bloc. The RJD, Congress and Left parties failed to settle seat-sharing arrangements in time, and the prolonged wrangling proved costly.
Matters worsened when several candidate names were announced on the last day of nominations, leaving voters in many constituencies unsure about who was contesting on the alliance’s ticket.
In Darbhanga’s Gaura Bauram, for instance, the RJD initially allotted its symbol to its own candidate but later handed the seat to Mukesh Sahni’s VIP. The RJD nominee did not surrender the symbol and stayed in the race. A day before polling, the VIP candidate withdrew support and backed the RJD candidate holding the symbol.
In several constituencies, the Grand Alliance parties even ended up competing against one another. In at least a dozen seats — including Vaishali, Chainpur and Bachhwara — alliance partners fielded rival candidates. In Bachhwara, the BJP won a contest where the Congress and CPI were pitted against each other.
The contrast with the NDA was stark. Despite its own resentments and disagreements, the ruling coalition projected unity. Branding itself as the “Five Pandavas” — JDU, BJP, HAM, RLM and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) — the NDA leaned on social engineering and caste equations to consolidate its support.
2. The Mallah Deputy CM Factor Backfired
In Bihar, the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) span around 112 castes and account for roughly 36 per cent of the state’s population. The category includes communities such as Mallah, Nishad, Nai, Teli, Lohar and Noniya, all of whom are considered socially and economically backward. Hoping to consolidate this vote bank, the Grand Alliance projected Mukesh Sahni — a leader from the Mallah community, which makes up about 2.6 per cent of the population — as its deputy chief ministerial face. The strategy, however, did not translate into support on the ground.
Within the EBC umbrella, several sub-castes do not view Sahni as their representative, and this was evident in the results. Sahni’s party failed to win a single seat despite contesting in 12 constituencies.
At the same time, Bihar’s Scheduled Castes make up nearly 19 per cent of the population and Muslims around 17 per cent. Yet neither community was offered a deputy chief ministerial candidate by the Grand Alliance — a decision that appears to have fuelled resentment and cost the alliance support.
3. The Opposition's Campaign Revolved Around RJD, Tejashwi
The Grand Alliance was made up of the RJD, Congress, VIP and the Left, yet the campaign largely revolved around Tejashwi Yadav alone. The RJD pitched its manifesto as “Tejashwi Pran”, a move that failed to resonate with workers of the alliance partners.
The lack of space and visibility given to allies during the campaign ultimately proved costly.
As one young Congress leader put it, in elections “there is a difference between one person being visible and an alliance fighting together”.
4. Tejashwi's Promises Lacklusture?
Tejashwi Yadav promised a government job for every household — a pledge that would require the creation of nearly 26 million jobs. The announcement failed to convince voters, largely because neither he nor the Grand Alliance presented a credible roadmap to deliver it. The BJP and JDU capitalised on this, dismissing the promise as unrealistic throughout the campaign.
In contrast, Nitish Kumar shifted the momentum just before polling by announcing a scheme to deposit ₹10,000 into the accounts of women. The move strengthened his credibility among female voters, who turned out in large numbers; women constituted roughly 71 per cent of those who voted.
The Grand Alliance, which had promised ₹2,500 for women under the Mai Behan scheme, struggled to match the BJP-JDU’s narrative and failed to win over this crucial voter base.
5. 'Vote Chori' Narrative Did Not Stick
The Congress attempted to build momentum through rallies on issues such as vote theft and fraudulent voting, with Rahul Gandhi even riding through Bihar on a Bullet alongside Tejashwi Yadav. But these messages failed to gain traction with ordinary voters.
After the Vote Adhikar Yatra, senior Congress leaders were largely absent from the state. As a result, the Grand Alliance struggled to foreground core concerns — Bihar’s stagnating economy, rising crime, poor roads, failing hospitals and gaps in education — leaving many voters unconvinced that the bloc had a substantive agenda.
6. The 'Jungle Raj' Tag
Tejashwi Yadav is not only a politician in his own right; he also carries the weight of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s legacy. The NDA tapped into this effectively. As in previous elections, the ruling coalition made “jungle raj” a central theme of its campaign. From Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, NDA leaders repeatedly invoked the phrase to characterise the RJD’s past tenure as one of lawlessness and breakdown of order.
At rally after rally, the Prime Minister reinforced this narrative, amplifying the negative perception of the RJD’s record. The Grand Alliance struggled to counter the charge, allowing the NDA’s messaging to dominate the discourse throughout the campaign.