State intelligence reports had picked TTV Dhinakaran as the winner of the fierce battle for Jayalalithaa's RK Nagar constituency. They were on the ball as Sasikala's nephew ran away with the by-election. The result would bring much grief to the AIADMK that ended second. Much worse was the DMK, that finished a poor third, not able to gain from the division in the AIADMK vote that it expected to.
More than what went wrong for the two main Dravidian parties, it is more important to consider what worked for TTV Dhinakaran.
The Money Factor
Sting operations, journalistic reports, and anecdotal evidence all pointed to how the Dhinakaran camp reportedly gave Rs 6,000 for a vote. Not that the ruling AIADMK did not.
Reports suggested that it matched note for note. But the return on investment for Dhinakaran, as the results showed, was better. A couple of voters told me they would feel bad not voting for Dhinakaran this time as his camp had shelled out Rs 4,000 in April as well. He was sailing with Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami that time.
The bypoll in the summer was rescinded after allegations of massive distribution of money.
The Sympathy Factor
Unlike Panneerselvam and Palaniswami, who were seen bowing before the might of New Delhi, Dhinakaran was seen as a leader who had the spine to take them on. Much like Jayalalithaa, who imperiously played her politics on her own terms.
Dhinakaran acquired a halo when he went to jail in the bribery case to acquire the two leaves symbol for his faction. The Jayalalithaa hospital video, that was released a day before polling, also emphasised the sympathy factor.
Though many questioned the timing of the release, it seems to have worked in his favour as it proved that Sasikala did not have a hand in Jayalalithaa’s death.
Pleasing Personality
Unlike EPS and OPS, who are seen as reticent and not really accessible to the media, Dhinakaran has built a more pleasing persona using the electronic media to good effect.
This has, to a large extent, blunted the negative impression that had been built about around the Mannargudi family, labelling it as a mafia.
People now see Dhinakaran as distinct from Sasikala, and the negative impression of the aunt has not transferred to him.
Inept governance
Palaniswami, right from the time the bypoll dates were announced, was keen that the result not be seen as a referendum on his government. Perhaps the CM had an inkling of the things to come. But given how the government has been on autopilot mode, the result is also a reflection of what people feel about the state of drift in Tamil Nadu. It will also be seen as a huge blow to the leadership of EPS and OPS.
The BJP factor
One of Dhinakaran's campaign points in RK Nagar was that a vote for Madhusudanan will be a vote for the BJP. The national party is seen as indulging in backseat driving in Chennai and controlling the affairs of the AIADMK and the government, and this has not been appreciated on the streets of Chennai.
The fact that the BJP got less votes than NOTA is something the national party needs to ponder over. For the record, half in jest, the BJP says it got less than NOTA because it did not give a note to the voter.
Election symbol
Though Dhinakaran’s first choice was the hat symbol, he had to settle for the pressure cooker.
In hindsight, it worked well for Dhinakaran. If the way to a voter's heart is through the stomach, the cooker turned out to be the most appropriate symbol. It also connected well with the women voters, who seem to have voted for him in large numbers.
Where does Tamil Nadu go from here? Though some AIADMK leaders are projecting Dhinakaran's victory as the triumph of an offshoot of the party, it is only indulging in semantics. MLAs, ministers, and MPs will now be under pressure to relook at their own political future, and whether EPS and OPS have the wherewithal to lead the party to victory. It also has confirmed that the two leaves symbol in itself means little, unless the party leadership is inspiring and impressive.
Dhinakaran has predicted the fall of the government in the next three months. But the rumblings may start well before that. For starters, MLAs and district secretaries with a caste affinity with Dhinakaran will rally behind him. It will perhaps even be time for Dhinakaran to activate the sleeper cells within the AIADMK that he keeps boasting about. What is certain is that the present dispensation at Fort St George is pretty much on its last legs.
(The writer is a senior journalist. He can be reached @Iamtssudhir on Twitter. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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