Bengal politics is at an important crossroads. The recent bye-elections in the Ballygunge Assembly constituency and the Asansol Lok Sabha seat are symptomatic of the ongoing churn in state politics.
There are three aspects to this churn: region, religion and resentment.
Region: Greater Kolkata vs Rest of Bengal?
The Greater Kolkata region has always dominated West Bengal politics. Since Ajoy Mukherjee's time, all the Chief Ministers of West Bengal have been from the Greater Kolkata region. This region has always culturally dominated the other parts of Bengal.
If we look at all the elections that have taken place after the Assembly Polls, a clear region-wise trend emerges. In the bye-elections and civic elections, BJP has retained its opposition space in the rural heartlands of North Bengal and Medinipur-Jangal Mahal.
On the other hand, Central Bengal remains highly fluid at this moment with Left, Congress & BJP holding considerable space.
It’s the Greater Kolkata region where the Left has consecutively outdone the BJP starting from Municipality Corporation elections in Kolkata, Bidhannagar and Chandannagar, then in the next round of Municipality elections and now in Ballygunge Assembly bye-election. As already stated above, this is the most important region not only in terms of seats but also in terms of influence.
In 2024, the Left won't be pleased if there is a massive gap in voting patterns between Greater Kolkata & the rest of Bengal because Greater Kolkata has only 16 Lok Sabha constituencies while the rest of Bengal has 26.
The Left's success will depend on how much it can revive its base in rural areas of Bengal, which go to polls next year in the 3-tier Panchayat elections. In rural areas, with the branding of Hindutva and the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP is ahead within the Opposition space.
Still, it'll be unwise to underestimate the Left because the rural Bengal elected them repeatedly, resulting in a 34-year long term.
Religion: Where are the Minority Voters Heading?
The Muslim population in West Bengal is around 27 percent. This entire voting block rallied behind TMC to defeat the BJP in the 2019 and 2021 elections.
According to the CSDS-Lokniti survey, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, around 70 percent Muslims voted for TMC, which increased to 75 percent in 2021.
The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey of 2016 said that nearly 51% of the Muslims voted for TMC in 2016. So, this means there has been a jump of over 20 percentage points in three years.
This may have been more due to polarization and counter polarization rather than governmental schemes. Mamata Banerjee succeeded in gaining the trust of minorities, racing ahead of the Left and Congress. However, it cannot be said that the Muslims are pleased with the state of affairs.
After BJP's crushing defeat in the 2021 Assembly Elections, the fear of the BJP among the Muslim voters started to wane. Therefore, keeping this 75 percent Muslim vote intact is next to impossible for the TMC when a resurgence of the Left occurs.
The series of incidents starting from Anish Khan's death to the Rampurhat killings, where all the villagers who killed were Muslim, caused a situation of mistrust between them & the TMC. Though there is no communal angle in the Rampurhat killings, it has contributed to some concerns among Muslims with the TMC.
In Ballygunge, where the Muslim population is nearly 51 percent, veteran TMC leader, late Subrata Mukherjee had bagged 70.6 percent of the votes in the 2021 elections. Babul Supriyo could get only 49.7 percent of the votes polled this time.
This resulted from the series of incidents stated above, coupled with the anger against TMC for inducting BJP turncoats into the party and giving them tickets.
Another issue that doesn't get highlighted much is the under-representation of Muslims in the government and party organisation. Muslims' support for TMC has increased rapidly over the years, but they are highly under-represented in the party structure.
Kolkata: Trinamool Congress candidate Babul Supriyo showing victory sign after winning Ballygunge Assembly by-Election in Kolkata on Saturday April 16,2022.
(Photo: Kuntal Chakrabarty/IANS)
This is a space to watch out for. The Ballygunge result does indicate some dissatisfaction among the minority community towards the TMC. However, it is too early to consider this a state-wide trend as elections were held simultaneously in Asansol Lok Sabha seat, where Muslims voted en masse for TMC’s Shatrughan Sinha.
The BJP came second in the seat and the Left was a distant third.
It may not be wrong to say that support of Muslims for TMC in 2024 will be directly proportional to the fear of the BJP.
Resentment Due to Deteriorating Law and Order
Ever since Mamata Banerjee's All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) returned to power with a majority of 213 seats in the 2021 Assembly Elections, there have been concerns regarding the alleged lawlessness of a party cadres in some parts of the state.
This has created the perception of a breakdown of law and order, which can put Mamata Banerjee in trouble in the 2024 General elections. It started with the unnecessary violence during municipality elections, followed by the death of two councillors- Anupam Dutta of TMC in Panihati and Tapan Kandu of Congress in Jhalda.
Meanwhile, the murder of student leader Anish Khan and the 'unnatural death' of the party's supporter Tuhina Khatun had already sparked controversy. But the worst was yet to come.
In Bogtui village of Rampurhat, Birbhum, 8 people – including women and children - were set on fire, following the death of Bhadu Sheikh, a local TMC leader in March this year. However, the Chief Minister visited the spot and directed the police to arrest Anarul Sheikh, who happens to be the Block President of TMC in that area.
Nine people were charred to death in West Bengal's Birbhum district on 21 March in retaliation to the murder of TMC leader Bhadu Sheikh.
(Photo: PTI)
The security of women in the state has also become a concern. Between 3 March and 10 April, 15 alleged rape cases were reported.
Nadia's Hanskhali rape case is heart-wrenching and is similar to the Hathras case. A panchayat member's son is one of the prime accused in the case. The insensitive statements of the Chief Minister suspecting the relationship status of the victim of the Hanskhali rape incident added fuel to the fire.
It does seem that growing violence, intraparty clashes, syndicate raj and series of rape incidents have dented the image of Mamata Banerjee as an able administrator and ’Bangla Nijer Meye’ (Bengal’s own daughter). The government has faced some criticism from within Bengal’s civil society due to these incidents. Some of them have also campaigned against Babul Supriyo in Ballygunge.
The issue of teacher recruitment in the government sector is also a matter of concern for the TMC government as there has been no recruitment since 2014, and the matter has been sub judice till now. Recently, the former Education Minister Partha Chatterjee was summoned by Calcutta High Court, but later, the order was stayed by the division bench. This could potentially lead to a backlash among the youth. Some students are already on a hunger strike.
In conclusion, while the series of wins by the TMC in municipality elections & bye-elections do indicate its dominance, there are chinks emerging in its armour. Will the BJP preserve its position as the main Opposition or will the Left recapture that space?
(Spandan Roy Basunia is a student at the West Bengal National University of Juridical Sciences, Kolkata. Sumanta Roy is a research scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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