Upendra Kushwaha on 20 February announced his decision to quit the Janata Dal-United and form his own party called Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal. This decision comes after the souring of his relations with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
This is the third time Kushwaha is quitting the JD-U and forming his own party.
So how important is this development?
Why has Kushwaha quit and made up with Nitish Kumar so many times?
What lies next for Kushwaha?
We will try and answer these questions in this piece.
Why Is This Important?
Upendra Kushwaha is a senior leader in the JD-U and was briefly president of the party's parliamentary board. More importantly, he was the most prominent face of the JD-U from the Kushwaha or Koeri community, an important OBC group comprising about 7-8 percent of Bihar's population.
He has also been a former union minister under the first Narendra Modi government.
In the 2020 Bihar elections, Kushwaha's RLSP contested as party of an alliance of smaller parties and secured 1.8 percent votes contesting 99 seats.
What Explains Upendra Kushwaha's Multiple Switches?
Kushwaha's has left and returned to the JD-U several times in the past.
He was suspended from the party in 2007 and formed the Rashtriya Samata Party in 2009 but he later merged back after a patch-up with Nitish Kumar.
Kushwaha again had a falling out with Nitish Kumar in the run-up to the 2013 Lok Sabha elections following JD-U breaking ranks with the BJP over Narendra Modi's PM candidature. Kushwaha formed the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and joined the NDA. He won and became MoS for Human Resources Development in the Modi government.
But when Kumar came back into the NDA in 2017, Kushwaha moved out and he fought the 2019 Lok Sabha polls as part of the UPA. But in 2021, he merged back into the JD-U after burying the hatchet with Nitish Kumar.
Kushwaha's problem is that while he is probably the tallest leader in the Koeri-Kushwaha community, his control over this vote bank is only partial at best. It doesn't match Lalu Prasad and Tejashwi Yadav's control over Yadav votes.
Therefore, Kushwaha can add value only as part of an alliance with a bigger party like the RJD, BJP or JD-U.
This explains his periodic shifts. He aligns himself to whichever formation offers him more prominence albeit as a junior partner.
What Lies Next for Kushwaha?
In all probability, Kushwaha may be heading back to the NDA. He has already publicly praised PM Modi recently.
The BJP is already nervous about Bihar in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as it is up against a formidable arithmetic of the RJD, JD-U, Congress, CPI-ML, CPI and CPM.
Jitan Ram Manjhi of HAM-S is the next player to watch out for. In the past, too, Manjhi and Kushwaha have broken ranks with Nitish Kumar to align with the NDA.
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)