Bihar Elections: Can Mahagathbandhan Improve Its Performance in Seemanchal?

Mahagathbandhan performed poorly in Seemanchal in 2020. Will entrants from its rivals help it revive in the region?

The Mahagathbandhan faced an embarrassing defeat in Seemanchal during the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections. The alliance could win only 7 out of 24 seats. The Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) contested 11 seats each. Congress won five, while RJD managed to win just one. The other two were contested by its allies, the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation and the Communist Party of India. The former retained its seat. Six of these winners were Muslims and one was a tribal. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won half of the seats, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning eight and Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] four. All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) bagged five seats, snatching three from RJD and two from Congress.

The Mahagathbandhan now consists of seven parties: Congress, RJD, the Left parties CPI(M-L)L, CPI, and CPI(M), Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), and IP Gupta’s Indian Inclusive Party (IIP).

This time, RJD is contesting nine seats. It has given away three of its long-lost seats, Katihar, Sikti, and Banmankhi to its allies VIP and Congress. Congress is contesting 12 seats, VIP two, and CPI(ML)L one.

On the NDA side, the BJP is contesting 11 seats, JD(U) 10, and Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) the remaining three.

Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is contesting 15 seats in Seemanchal, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) has fielded candidates on all 24 seats. In at least half a dozen constituencies, rebel candidates could spoil the chances of officially nominated candidates from major parties.

Rebellion in the NDA

A lot has changed in Seemanchal politics over the past five years. Five-time MLA from Purnia’s Rupauli and a prominent OBC woman leader, Bima Bharti, quit JD(U) last year to contest the Lok Sabha election on an RJD ticket. Pappu Yadav’s victory in Purnia Lok Sabha seat further cemented the alliance’s dominance in the region. Another strong OBC face and two-time former MP from Purnia, Santosh Kushwaha, once considered close to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, joined RJD soon after the elections were announced.

Bharti is contesting again from her bastion Rupauli, while Kushwaha has been fielded from the neighbouring Dhamdaha seat. Both constituencies are currently represented by Rajput MLAs Shankar Singh and Leshi Singh. Shankar won as an independent in the 2024 bypoll after LJP(R) denied him a ticket, while Leshi Singh, a cabinet minister in Nitish’s government, is considered the undisputed leader in Dhamdaha.

Santosh Kushwaha has made social justice a central theme of his campaign. When he joined RJD, he said that no decision in JD(U) is now made by backward caste leaders, taking a direct swipe at troika of the party’s Brahmin and Bhumihar leadership, national working president Sanjay Jha, former national president Lalan Singh, and minister Vijay Choudhary.

His campaign in Dhamdaha also portrays the contest as a fight against a handful of feudal-minded Manuwadi leaders at the helm. If backward-caste consolidation works in the Dhamdaha and Rupauli belt, RJD could end its two-decade-long drought in the six Assembly constituencies under the Purnia Lok Sabha seat.

In Katihar, senior BJP leader and three-time local bodies MLC Ashok Agarwal, along with his son Saurav Kumar Agarwal, rebelled. Saurav is now contesting on a Mahagathbandhan ticket against former Deputy Chief Minister and four-time BJP MLA Tarkishore Prasad. A day before his announcement, Ashok even attended Tarkishore’s nomination rally. Despite his long association with the BJP and its affiliates, Agarwal has strong influence among socially weaker sections of Muslims, which helped his wife Usha Devi Agarwal secure a landslide win in the 2022 Mayor elections. The Agarwal family’s rebellion, combined with anti-incumbency against Tarkishore, gives Mahagathbandhan a clear edge in Katihar.

As Saurav is contesting on a VIP ticket, it may also benefit the Mahagathbandhan in the neighbouring Barari and Pranpur constituencies, both of which have a considerable number of Mallah voters. Incumbent JD(U) MLA from Barari Bijay Nishad comes from Mallah community and is considered arch rival of Agarwal family in municipal elections.  In Kishanganj, NDA’s tallest Muslim face, two-time former MLA and JD(U) candidate in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Master Mujahid Alam, has joined RJD. Another Surjapuri Muslim leader, former MLA from Thakurganj and ex-minister Naushad Alam, has opted out of the race after losing his deposit in 2020. 

Can AIMIM Bounce Back?

Except for its Bihar chief Akhtarul Iman, almost all major AIMIM leaders have deserted the party since 2020. Four of its MLAs and one former MLA defected to the RJD–Congress camp.

Despite Owaisi’s efforts to play the betrayal card to regain sympathy, the AIMIM has failed to rebuild voter trust. The party led only in Kochadhaman and Bahadurganj during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, just like the 2019 elections, and even there, its vote share declined. In his own constituency Amour, Iman managed barely half the votes he received in 2020.

The AIMIM’s key allies from 2020, Upendra Kushwaha and Devendra Prasad Yadav and BSP MLA Zama Khan, also switched to the NDA soon after the alliance collapsed.

This time, AIMIM has fielded 15 candidates in Seemanchal, including three former rebels who had publicly criticised Owaisi and Iman. Iman, the sitting MLA from Amour, faces strong opposition and is being labelled an outsider. He originally hails from Kochadhaman, which he represented three times as an RJD MLA. Amour shares its boundary with Kochadhaman and falls under the Kishanganj Lok Sabha constituency, from where Iman contested two consecutive parliamentary elections.

The party’s other strong contenders are Tausif Alam in Bahadurganj, a four-time former Congress MLA, former RJD district president Sarwar Alam in Kochadhaman, husband of Purnia Zila Parishad Chairman Wahida, Ghulam Sarwar in Baisi and former JD(U) candidate Murshid Alam in Jokihat. 

Owaisi has now dropped the betrayal rhetoric since the Mahagathbandhan denied tickets to three of the four defectors in Kochadhaman, Bahadurganj, and Baisi. He is now trying to woo them back, one of them has even come back. The fourth, Jokihat, is witnessing a four cornered contest between two sons of late RJD stalwart Taslimuddin, Shahnawaz (RJD) and Sarfaraz (JSP), along with JD(U)’s former MLA Manzar Alam and AIMIM’s Murshid Alam. Kochadhaman is witnessing a direct contest between RJD’s Mujahid Alam and AIMIM’s Sarwar Alam. Turncoat Izhar Asfi’s support to AIMIM may improve its performance marginally, but Mahagathbandhan still appears to have an edge here in absence of a strong BJP candidate and RJD’s Mujahid’s old connection with NDA voters. 

In Baisi, RJD has once again relied on six-time former MLA Abdus Subhan, denying a ticket to AIMIM turncoat and incumbent MLA Syed Ruknuddin. Ruknuddin is now supporting Subhan, and much will depend on how effectively he can transfer his votes to the RJD.

Unlike in 2020, Akhtarul Iman is now largely confined to his own Amour constituency, which may hurt AIMIM’s performance in his traditional strongholds of Kochadhaman and Bahadurganj. In 2020, Jokihat MLA Shahnawaz, son of prominent Kulhaiya leader Taslimuddin, also campaigned in Amour and Baisi, both constituencies with sizeable Kulhaiya populations. This time, however, the party lacks a Kulhaiya leader with influence beyond their own constituency.

In Kishanganj and Thakurganj, AIMIM remains weak, although any rise in its vote share may directly help NDA candidates who are aggressively wooing Muslim voters this time.

After announcing Tejashwi Yadav as the chief ministerial face and Mukesh Sahni as deputy chief ministerial face, the Mahagathbandhan is likely to announce a Muslim deputy chief ministerial face, a move that could further dent AIMIM’s prospects.

Another factor that may hurt AIMIM is the gradual shift of a section of traditional NDA voters toward the Mahagathbandhan, driven by fears of AIMIM’s rise. This trend is a complete reversal of the usual pattern, where fear of the BJP influences Muslim voting behaviour.

Congress’s Last-Minute Entrants

Nearly half of Congress’s candidates in Seemanchal are last-minute entrants who joined the party only weeks or months before nominations.

For instance, Forbesganj candidate Manoj Bishwas joined just 10 days before ticket distribution. Bahadurganj’s Musawwir Alam switched from JSP to Congress barely 15 days ago. Kishanganj’s Qamrul Hoda joined one and a half months earlier. Similarly, Jitendra Yadav (Purnia), Irfan Alam (Kasba), and Deo Narayan Rajak (Banmankhi) joined within the last few months.

Four of these, Musawwir, Jitendra, Irfan, and Deo, are considered close to Pappu Yadav. However, Pappu does not have a great record in Assembly elections. His party JAP(L) has been routed in both 2015 and 2020 polls. He and his wife Ranjeet Ranjan contested five Assembly elections in Seemanchal-Kosi region, winning only once, early in his career in 1990. Even in 2024, just after his Lok Sabha election victory, when he supported RJD’s Bima Bharti in the Rupauli bypoll, she finished third.

Nevertheless, if Pappu can mobilise voters in Kasba, Banmankhi, Purnia, and Korha, all Congress-contested seats where he led in 2024, it could provide an additional boost to the Mahagathbandhan. Banmankhi and Purnia are traditional BJP bastions, while Korha, currently held by the BJP, tends to switch sides in almost every election. Kasba is facing rebellion from incumbent Congress MLA Afaque Alam.

Congress shifted its youth leader Tauquir Alam from Pranpur to Barari on the last day of nomination, giving him little time for preparation. Barari is Tauquir’s home constituency, and his father Mansoor Alam was elected from here three times. Nevertheless, some advance preparation could have made the seat easier for Congress. Now, Tauquir’s chances in Barari depend on Yadav and Mallah voters. 

However, the Mahagathbandhan has improved its prospects in Pranpur with this last minute adjustment. The alliance had lost the seat in the last two elections due to the rivalry between Tauquir Alam and Ishrat Parween, the RJD candidate.

Local Muslim Caste Groups

The NDA lacks any Surjapuri Muslim candidate in Seemanchal, a significant setback given the community’s estimated population of 24.5 lakh across Kishanganj, Purnia, and Katihar districts. Surjapuri Muslims have a decisive vote share in nine Assembly constituencies: Kochadhaman, Bahadurganj, Kishanganj, Thakurganj, Balrampur, Amour, Baisi, Pranpur, and Kadwa. The NDA could win only Pranpur in 2020.

It also does not have any candidate from the Shershahbadi Muslim community, which has a population of around 13 lakh and a strong influence in Barari, Manihari, Korha, Thakurganj, and Kishanganj seats.

JD(U) has fielded two Kulhaiya Muslim candidates, both former MLAs — Manzar Alam from Jokihat and Saba Zafar from Amour. The Kulhaiya community has a population of about 12.5 lakh in Seemanchal and holds decisive vote shares in Jokihat, Araria, Amour, Baisi, and Kasba constituencies.

In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, AIMIM, and Jan Suraaj have fielded Muslim candidates from all three major communities.

Out of the 11 Muslim MLAs elected from Seemanchal in 2020, six were Surjapuris, two Kulhaiyas, one Sekhra, one Syed and one Pathan.

This time, the Mahagathbandhan has fielded 13 Muslim candidates. Eight of them are Surjapuris, two Kulhaiyas, one Shershahbadi, one Pathan, and one Dhuniya.

Apart from its two Kulhaiya candidates, the NDA has fielded one Sekhra and one Ansari candidate. Although the NDA receives only a small share of Muslim votes, but that largely depends on the individual candidate.

The X-factors

Rebel candidates and nominees from AIMIM, Jan Suraaj, and NCP are likely to play significant roles in at least eight seats of Seemanchal.

In Rupauli, Independent MLA Shankar Singh is once again contesting as an Independent. His presence may hurt JD(U)’s prospects in the constituency.

In Kasba, incumbent Congress MLA Afaque Alam has rebelled after being denied a ticket, while BJP’s three-time former MLA Pradeep Das has also entered the fray as an Independent. The presence of these two rebels has turned it into a four-cornered contest.

In Narpatganj, the rebellion of RJD’s two-time former MLA Anil Yadav has weakened the party’s position. Although four-time former BJP MLA Janardhan Yadav is contesting as a Jan Suraaj Party candidate, he appears to have little impact on the ground.

In Jokihat, RJD rebel and former MP and MLA Sarfraz is contesting as a Jan Suraaj Party candidate, giving a tough fight. The RJD will have to consolidate Yadav votes here, as Muslim votes are expected to split among RJD, JSP, and AIMIM.

In Raniganj, where RJD had lost by a narrow margin of just 2,304 votes in 2020, BJP rebel Aman Raj may spoil JD(U)’s chances this time.

In Kadwa, Congress leader Shakeel Ahmad Khan, who won the last two elections due to NDA rebellions, faces JD(U)’s former Katihar MP Dulal Chandra Goswami. If the past trend continues, Khan’s victory will depend heavily on the voter share drawn by NDA rebels Asha Suman and Hemraj Singh. Since Dulal has been shifted from his home constituency, Balrampur, which he represented twice, much will depend on how much support he manages to gather from local NDA leaders.

In Balrampur, where CPI(M-L)L’s Mahboob Alam won with the highest victory margin in the 2020 Bihar elections, his former associate Moazzam Hussain, now contesting as a rebel, along with AIMIM’s Adil Hasan, may make it a close contest with LJP(R)’s Sangita Devi. 

In Manihari, a Scheduled Tribe-reserved seat, a rare tribal Muslim candidate Saif Ali Khan, contesting on the well-recognised NCP clock symbol in Katihar, could dent Congress’s chances.

In Forbesganj and Sikti, both traditional NDA bastions, the Mahagathbandhan has fielded fresh faces — Manoj Bishwas from Congress and Hari Narayan Pramanik from VIP. Their performance will largely depend on how effectively they can shift their respective caste vote banks, Amaat and Kevrat, from the NDA to the grand alliance.

(Tanzil Asif is a Bihar-based journalist and the founder of Main Media, a hyperlocal news platform focused on the Seemanchal region.)