(This story was originally published on 10 January 2024. It has been republished with edits from The Quint's archives in light of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Tamil Nadu on 20 January)
After Prime Minister Narendra Modi's consecutive visits to Tiruchirappalli in Tamil Nadu in January 2024, the speculation that the PM may contest the Lok Sabha polls from a seat in the southern state has gained more traction.
"If PM Modi contests from a seat in Tamil Nadu, he is guaranteed to win. People in Tamil Nadu are emotional. They will respond positively once they see that the PM wants to make the state his political home," a former BJP Assembly candidate from Tamil Nadu told The Quint, adding that the move could open the floodgates for the BJP in the state.
Speaking to The Quint, Tamil Nadu BJP vice-president Narayanan Thirupathy said, "If he contests from TN, it will be very good. People are aware that the only leader in India today is Narendra Modi. We welcome if he is contesting from Tamil Nadu and it will be a huge victory for us".
However, the leader added that "there is no official word on this. There is only a media speculation."
Will PM Narendra Modi Contest From Tamil Nadu? Here Are the Pros & Cons
1. But Why Tamil Nadu?
With 39 MPs, Tamil Nadu is the fourth-largest state in terms of Lok Sabha seats, behind only Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and West Bengal. It also happens to be one of the BJP's weakest states in the country.
In the past 20 years, the BJP has managed to win only one Lok Sabha seat in Tamil Nadu – the Kanniyakumari seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. So, it isn't going to be easy for the BJP to improve its tally in the state.
On the other hand, it happens to be one of the states where the INDIA bloc remains strong. The DMK-Congress-Left alliance had won 38 out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu in 2019, and the BJP is keen to reduce that tally.
Tamil Nadu BJP president K Annamalai, however, remains optimistic and says that "the BJP has a strong presence in Tamil Nadu." According to him, the BJP has carved out an organic base in the state and it could surprise many in the Lok Sabha elections.
In this context, the buzz around PM Modi contesting from a seat in Tamil Nadu is boosting the morale of the BJP cadre in the state. Party leaders say this is a good thing, irrespective of whether the move materialises or not.
Expand2. The Buzz Is Around These 3 Constituencies
The buzz has been that the PM would contest from either of the three constituencies – Coimbatore, Ramanathapuram, or Kanniyakumari – in addition to a seat in the north, which would most likely be Varanasi or Ayodhya in Uttar Pradesh.
He is presently the MP from Varanasi but there is speculation that he could shift to Ayodhya in order to capitalise on the Ram Mandir sentiment.
As for Tamil Nadu, Coimbatore, Ramanathapuram, and Kanniyakumari are the only seats where the BJP has some kind of an organic base. For instance, the BJP managed to win Kanniyakumari in 2014 even when it wasn't in alliance with the AIADMK.
The BJP has had a healthy vote share in Kanniyakumari both at the Lok Sabha and Assembly-level in the past few elections.
However, Kanniyakumari has a Christian population of over 30 percent. Therefore, a great deal would depend on the success of the BJP's ongoing outreach among Christian groups.
PM Narendra Modi at former president APJ Abdul Kalam's memorial in Rameshwaram.
(Photo courtesy: narendramodi.in)
The buzz was louder for Ramanathapuram constituency where currently Nawaz Kani, who belongs to the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), is the MP. The constituency has a significant Muslim population and also houses the temple town of Rameshwaram. The party was in second place in the 2019 elections – and it could attempt to polarise votes, say experts.
Rameshwaram is an important pilgrimage centre for Hindus because of the Ramanathaswamy temple, one of the 12 Jyotirlingas (Shiva temple sites) in the country.
PM Modi's constituency Varanasi houses the Kashi Vishwanath temple, another of the 12 Jyotirlingas.
However, even though the Ramanathaswamy temple is dedicated to Lord Shiva, it is also said that Lord Rama had come and prayed to Shiva after defeating Ravana in Lanka. Therefore, Tamil Nadu BJP insiders say it would be in line with the BJP's messaging around the Ram Mandir.
Expand3. What Are the Risks for the BJP?
Both Ramanathapuram and Kanniyakumari are home to a large fishing community. In August 2023, BJP state chief K Annamalai – while responding to Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin's remarks that the Centre has done very little for the fishing community of the state – had said that it was PM Modi who developed Dhanushkodi in Ramanathapuram district, which he claimed had been neglected since it was ravaged by the 1964 floods.
Moreover, his 'En Mann En Makkal' padayatra across the state began from Ramanathapuram in July, further adding fuel to the speculation that the PM would contest from there. Home Minister Amit Shah, too, in one of his visits to the state at the time, pitched for a "Tamil PM" in the future.
Even in Coimbatore, the BJP has historically had some presence. It secured over 30 percent votes in the last two Lok Sabha elections. In 2014, it managed to do that even without the AIADMK's support. The city has a history of communal polarisation in the 1990s. The 1998 blasts in Coimbatore are alleged to have been aimed at BJP leader LK Advani. PM Modi was then a key central functionary of the BJP.
"The BJP has one or two constituencies where they have reasonable voter presence, like Ramanathapuram, Coimbatore, and Kanyakumari. Their thinking is that if the PM contests from Ramnathapuram, they can make an impact in the surrounding areas."
Sumanth Raman, senior journalist and presenterWhen national Congress leaders – the Indira Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi – contested from the south, their party already had ample voter presence in the area. But in Tamil Nadu, the BJP's vote share is in single digits. This poses a problem for the party.
Speaking to The Quint, senior journalist Kavitha Muralidharan says, "Tamil Nadu is different – and the BJP would find it very difficult to make inroads here. The TN BJP wanted the PM to contest from Ramanathapuram because Rameshwaram falls under it. But it will be a huge risk."
"Tamil Nadu is still averse to BJP. But the party is penetrating the state through small temples and cultural organisations. The RSS is working very hard here by hosting cultural events, sporting events etc."
Kavitha MuralidharanAccording to her, there have been certain bones of contention – like the NEET issue, the governor-government tussle, and issues of federalism – which is likely to keep the BJP out. The presence of strong Dravidian politics in TN is another factor.
Sources in the Tamil Nadu BJP say that under K Annamalai, the party is trying to position itself as an ideological counterweight to Dravidian politics. Its break-up with the AIADMK was an important milestone in this journey.
"This strand of (Dravidian) politics has promoted caste animosity and corruption. BJP is the only party that stands against it," a party strategist told The Quint.
If PM Modi does contest from a seat in Tamil Nadu, a major risk that he faces is of the ruling DMK putting up a strong state-level leader or a minister against him.
Then there is the risk that Rahul Gandhi could contest against the PM as the DMK-Congress alliance's candidate. Gandhi has consistently had better approval ratings than PM Modi in Tamil Nadu and would be a formidable opponent. A Modi vs Rahul contest in a Tamil Nadu seat isn't a risk the BJP would want to take.
Expand4. How Likely Is Such a Move for PM Modi?
From the emphasis given to the installing of the Sengol in the Lok Sabha to PM Modi's frequent visits to Tamil Nadu and the increasing ideological wars with the DMK, the signs are all there that the BJP is planning a major move in the state.
However, it is unlikely that PM Modi will contest from a seat in the state unless he is sure of a win.
"It is highly unlikely that they would take this route. The BJP cadre wants to create such a narrative to boost the party's prospects."
Sumanth RamanHe says that to make inroads in TN, the BJP would need the help of an alliance partner, and now that the AIADMK has cut ties with the BJP, there is no such avenue.
TN BJP state vice-president Narayanan Thirupathy says: "The PM is welcome to contest from TN. He can contest from anywhere in India – not only Tamil Nadu. In that sense, we welcome that. But as of now, we have no official communication from the high command, and there has been no official discussion about this."
Expand5. The AIADMK Factor
Sumanth Raman adds: "Without the AIADMK, they [the BJP] will be in trouble. Breaking the alliance was a bad idea. Having broken the alliance, they have no other option but to go alone – or include some of the smaller parties and non-entities like OPS and others. They may not be able to win anything in TN unless they do something radical, like Modi contesting. But that is also risky."
But Narayanan Thirumurthy says that "alliances are decided only during the elections, or closer to the elections."
"There is more time for the elections to be announced. Even so, the BJP in Tamil Nadu is prepared to face the elections alone and we have almost completed forming our booth committees. Our organisation is very strong. Our inner party strength is very sound and our workers are encouraged by the good schemes of the BJP government at the Centre," he adds.
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)
Expand
But Why Tamil Nadu?
With 39 MPs, Tamil Nadu is the fourth-largest state in terms of Lok Sabha seats, behind only Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and West Bengal. It also happens to be one of the BJP's weakest states in the country.
In the past 20 years, the BJP has managed to win only one Lok Sabha seat in Tamil Nadu – the Kanniyakumari seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. So, it isn't going to be easy for the BJP to improve its tally in the state.
On the other hand, it happens to be one of the states where the INDIA bloc remains strong. The DMK-Congress-Left alliance had won 38 out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu in 2019, and the BJP is keen to reduce that tally.
Tamil Nadu BJP president K Annamalai, however, remains optimistic and says that "the BJP has a strong presence in Tamil Nadu." According to him, the BJP has carved out an organic base in the state and it could surprise many in the Lok Sabha elections.
In this context, the buzz around PM Modi contesting from a seat in Tamil Nadu is boosting the morale of the BJP cadre in the state. Party leaders say this is a good thing, irrespective of whether the move materialises or not.
The Buzz Is Around These 3 Constituencies
The buzz has been that the PM would contest from either of the three constituencies – Coimbatore, Ramanathapuram, or Kanniyakumari – in addition to a seat in the north, which would most likely be Varanasi or Ayodhya in Uttar Pradesh.
He is presently the MP from Varanasi but there is speculation that he could shift to Ayodhya in order to capitalise on the Ram Mandir sentiment.
As for Tamil Nadu, Coimbatore, Ramanathapuram, and Kanniyakumari are the only seats where the BJP has some kind of an organic base. For instance, the BJP managed to win Kanniyakumari in 2014 even when it wasn't in alliance with the AIADMK.
The BJP has had a healthy vote share in Kanniyakumari both at the Lok Sabha and Assembly-level in the past few elections.
However, Kanniyakumari has a Christian population of over 30 percent. Therefore, a great deal would depend on the success of the BJP's ongoing outreach among Christian groups.
PM Narendra Modi at former president APJ Abdul Kalam's memorial in Rameshwaram.
(Photo courtesy: narendramodi.in)
The buzz was louder for Ramanathapuram constituency where currently Nawaz Kani, who belongs to the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), is the MP. The constituency has a significant Muslim population and also houses the temple town of Rameshwaram. The party was in second place in the 2019 elections – and it could attempt to polarise votes, say experts.
Rameshwaram is an important pilgrimage centre for Hindus because of the Ramanathaswamy temple, one of the 12 Jyotirlingas (Shiva temple sites) in the country.
PM Modi's constituency Varanasi houses the Kashi Vishwanath temple, another of the 12 Jyotirlingas.
However, even though the Ramanathaswamy temple is dedicated to Lord Shiva, it is also said that Lord Rama had come and prayed to Shiva after defeating Ravana in Lanka. Therefore, Tamil Nadu BJP insiders say it would be in line with the BJP's messaging around the Ram Mandir.
Both Ramanathapuram and Kanniyakumari are home to a large fishing community. In August 2023, BJP state chief K Annamalai – while responding to Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin's remarks that the Centre has done very little for the fishing community of the state – had said that it was PM Modi who developed Dhanushkodi in Ramanathapuram district, which he claimed had been neglected since it was ravaged by the 1964 floods.
Moreover, his 'En Mann En Makkal' padayatra across the state began from Ramanathapuram in July, further adding fuel to the speculation that the PM would contest from there. Home Minister Amit Shah, too, in one of his visits to the state at the time, pitched for a "Tamil PM" in the future.
Even in Coimbatore, the BJP has historically had some presence. It secured over 30 percent votes in the last two Lok Sabha elections. In 2014, it managed to do that even without the AIADMK's support. The city has a history of communal polarisation in the 1990s. The 1998 blasts in Coimbatore are alleged to have been aimed at BJP leader LK Advani. PM Modi was then a key central functionary of the BJP.
"The BJP has one or two constituencies where they have reasonable voter presence, like Ramanathapuram, Coimbatore, and Kanyakumari. Their thinking is that if the PM contests from Ramnathapuram, they can make an impact in the surrounding areas."Sumanth Raman, senior journalist and presenter
What Are the Risks for the BJP?
When national Congress leaders – the Indira Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi – contested from the south, their party already had ample voter presence in the area. But in Tamil Nadu, the BJP's vote share is in single digits. This poses a problem for the party.
Speaking to The Quint, senior journalist Kavitha Muralidharan says, "Tamil Nadu is different – and the BJP would find it very difficult to make inroads here. The TN BJP wanted the PM to contest from Ramanathapuram because Rameshwaram falls under it. But it will be a huge risk."
"Tamil Nadu is still averse to BJP. But the party is penetrating the state through small temples and cultural organisations. The RSS is working very hard here by hosting cultural events, sporting events etc."Kavitha Muralidharan
According to her, there have been certain bones of contention – like the NEET issue, the governor-government tussle, and issues of federalism – which is likely to keep the BJP out. The presence of strong Dravidian politics in TN is another factor.
Sources in the Tamil Nadu BJP say that under K Annamalai, the party is trying to position itself as an ideological counterweight to Dravidian politics. Its break-up with the AIADMK was an important milestone in this journey.
"This strand of (Dravidian) politics has promoted caste animosity and corruption. BJP is the only party that stands against it," a party strategist told The Quint.
If PM Modi does contest from a seat in Tamil Nadu, a major risk that he faces is of the ruling DMK putting up a strong state-level leader or a minister against him.
Then there is the risk that Rahul Gandhi could contest against the PM as the DMK-Congress alliance's candidate. Gandhi has consistently had better approval ratings than PM Modi in Tamil Nadu and would be a formidable opponent. A Modi vs Rahul contest in a Tamil Nadu seat isn't a risk the BJP would want to take.
How Likely Is Such a Move for PM Modi?
From the emphasis given to the installing of the Sengol in the Lok Sabha to PM Modi's frequent visits to Tamil Nadu and the increasing ideological wars with the DMK, the signs are all there that the BJP is planning a major move in the state.
However, it is unlikely that PM Modi will contest from a seat in the state unless he is sure of a win.
"It is highly unlikely that they would take this route. The BJP cadre wants to create such a narrative to boost the party's prospects."Sumanth Raman
He says that to make inroads in TN, the BJP would need the help of an alliance partner, and now that the AIADMK has cut ties with the BJP, there is no such avenue.
TN BJP state vice-president Narayanan Thirupathy says: "The PM is welcome to contest from TN. He can contest from anywhere in India – not only Tamil Nadu. In that sense, we welcome that. But as of now, we have no official communication from the high command, and there has been no official discussion about this."
The AIADMK Factor
Sumanth Raman adds: "Without the AIADMK, they [the BJP] will be in trouble. Breaking the alliance was a bad idea. Having broken the alliance, they have no other option but to go alone – or include some of the smaller parties and non-entities like OPS and others. They may not be able to win anything in TN unless they do something radical, like Modi contesting. But that is also risky."
But Narayanan Thirumurthy says that "alliances are decided only during the elections, or closer to the elections."
"There is more time for the elections to be announced. Even so, the BJP in Tamil Nadu is prepared to face the elections alone and we have almost completed forming our booth committees. Our organisation is very strong. Our inner party strength is very sound and our workers are encouraged by the good schemes of the BJP government at the Centre," he adds.
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)